Market evolution: Fats and oils (CN 15) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in fats and oils (Combined Nomenclature chapter 15) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The chapter covers a diverse range of products, from basic animal and vegetable fats like palm and soya-bean oil to more processed goods such as margarine and prepared edible fats. The data reveals a period of significant growth in the total value of trade, fundamentally reshaped by global price dynamics and evolving supply chains. While trade volumes grew more modestly, the EU's reliance on external suppliers has increased, and the structure of its partnerships and product focus has undergone notable shifts.
1. The Price-Driven Expansion of Trade Values
The most striking feature of the 2015-2025 period is the substantial increase in the monetary value of EU trade, which far outpaced the growth in physical volumes. This dynamic was common to both imports and exports, indicating a market-wide phenomenon largely driven by global commodity price inflation.
1.1. A Surge in Import and Export Values
Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports of fats and oils rose by 80.6%, from €9.17 billion to €16.56 billion. Over the same period, the value of exports increased by 72.5%, from €5.99 billion to €10.33 billion. The peak in import value was reached in 2022, at €19.84 billion, coinciding with the global energy and food price shocks. Export value peaked a year later in 2023 at €11.63 billion. Despite this growth, the EU maintained a persistent trade deficit in this chapter, which widened from -€3.18 billion in 2015 to -€6.23 billion in 2025. You can explore the overall trade dynamics here.
1.2. Underlying Dynamics: Prices vs. Quantities
The growth in trade value was predominantly propelled by rising unit prices rather than by large increases in the quantity traded.
- Import prices increased by 62.2% over the period, reaching €1,312 per tonne in 2025. This compares to a volume increase of only 11.4% (from 11.33 million tonnes to 12.62 million tonnes).
- Export prices saw a similar trend, rising by 64.5% to €2,366 per tonne in 2025, while export volumes grew by just 4.9% (from 4.16 million tonnes to 4.37 million tonnes).
This price inflation reflects broader trends in global agricultural and energy markets, which directly impacted the cost of feedstocks and processing for the entire fats and oils sector.
2. Structural Shifts in Products and Partners
Beyond overall price trends, the decade saw significant changes in the composition of traded products and the geographic concentration of the EU's trade relationships.
2.1. A Changing Product Mix in Imports
The breakdown of EU imports by product segment reveals a clear structural shift away from palm oil and towards other vegetable oils and processed fats. Palm oil (CN 1511), while remaining the largest single import category by volume in 2015, saw its imported quantity fall by 52.5% (from 6.61 million tonnes to 3.14 million tonnes) by 2025. Conversely, other key segments grew substantially:
| Product Segment | Description | Import Volume (2015) | Import Volume (2025) | Change (Volume) | Change (Value) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN 1511 | Palm oil | 6,611,322 t | 3,140,260 t | -52.5% | -14.2% |
| CN 1512 | Sunflower-seed, safflower, cotton-seed oil | 889,842 t | 2,374,472 t | +166.9% | +279.8% |
| CN 1518 | Chemically modified fats/oils & inedible mixtures | 651,651 t | 2,584,716 t | +296.6% | +624.3% |
| CN 1507 | Soya-bean oil | 317,319 t | 753,849 t | +137.6% | +246.3% |
This decline in palm oil imports, in both absolute volume and market share, is a major trend of the period. It can be interpreted in the context of evolving EU sustainability regulations (e.g., the Renewable Energy Directive) and shifting consumer and corporate sourcing policies. Meanwhile, the surge in imports of sunflower-seed oil (CN 1512) and chemically modified products (CN 1518) points to changes in industrial demand and processing capacity. A detailed view of the product segments is available here.
2.2. Reorientation of Trade Partners
The geographic landscape of the EU's supply and destination markets also shifted. The concentration of imports by partner country (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index by value) fell by 28.4%, from 1,330 to 952, indicating a move towards more diversified sourcing.
- Key Supplier Shifts: Ukraine's importance as an import source surged dramatically, with import values rising by 485% to €3.44 billion in 2025, making it the third-largest supplier. China also became a major new player, with imports from China growing by 1,401% to over €1 billion. These shifts helped offset declines from traditional partners like Indonesia (palm oil), whose imports fell by 17.3%.
- Export Market Evolution: The United States solidified its position as the top destination for EU exports, with the value rising by 132.9% to €2.24 billion. Exports to Norway also grew strongly by 150%. Meanwhile, exports to some traditional Southern and Eastern European partners (e.g., Algeria, South Africa) decreased.
The volatility (coefficient of variation) in trade flows varied significantly by partner, with imports from China (CV 0.77) and exports to India (CV 0.73) being particularly volatile, highlighting the risks associated with these newer or more distant trade links. The volatility data can be reviewed here.
3. Deepening Import Dependency and Internal Production Growth
While the EU's external trade expanded, the bloc's reliance on imported fats and oils increased. At the same time, domestic production grew substantially, indicating an industry that was scaling up but remained deeply integrated into global supply chains.
3.1. Rising Import Reliance
The EU's net import reliance for chapter 15 products shifted from a slight surplus in 2015 (-5.6%) to a net deficit of 8.0% in 2025, peaking at over 15% in 2022. This metric, which considers both trade and production, highlights a growing structural dependency. Furthermore, the trade intensity of the sector—the ratio of trade (imports + exports) to domestic production—nearly doubled from 19.0% to 45.4%. This indicates that the EU fats and oils industry became significantly more export-oriented and/or reliant on imported raw materials. The full indicators for autonomy and vulnerability are accessible here.
3.2. Domestic Production Context
Parallel to these trade developments, EU domestic production (as measured by PRODCOM) saw a marked increase. The value of production rose by 231.8% (from €13.3 billion to €44.2 billion), and production volumes grew by 89.1% (from 17.7 billion kg to 33.4 billion kg). This suggests that the EU industry expanded its output significantly, likely focusing on higher-value processed products. However, this growth in production did not translate into a reduced trade deficit, as the demand for raw material inputs (like various vegetable oils) and the scale of re-exports continued to drive high import volumes. The production data is available in the Market Structure section.
Conclusion
The EU market for fats and oils between 2015 and 2025 was characterized by significant value expansion, predominantly fueled by global price inflation rather than volume growth. This period was not one of stasis; it witnessed a fundamental restructuring: a pronounced decline in palm oil imports, a surge in sunflower-seed oil and other oils, and a reorientation of trade towards Ukraine and China on the import side, and the US on the export side. Consequently, the EU's dependence on external sources deepened, as evidenced by a widening trade deficit and dramatically increased trade intensity. While domestic production scaled up robustly, it operated within a framework of heightened global integration and volatility. The decade has thus left the EU fats and oils market larger in monetary terms but more exposed to international market fluctuations and geopolitical shifts in its supply base.