Market evolution: Olive pomace oil (CN 1510) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in olive pomace oil (customs code 1510) over the period 2015–2025. The product, which includes crude olive pomace oil (EU category 6) and refined/blended oils (EU categories 7 and 8), is a significant segment within the broader olive oil market. The general overview of the EU's trade data provides the foundation for this analysis. Over the decade, the EU has maintained a consistent and substantial trade surplus in this product, characterised by strong export growth, significant price evolution, and shifting trade partnerships.

1. Strengthening Export Performance Driven by Value and Market Diversification

The EU's export sector for olive pomace oil demonstrated robust growth over the period, primarily fuelled by rising unit values and diversification into new key markets.

Export value growth significantly outpaced volume growth

While the volume of EU exports grew by 11.7% (from 77,254 to 86,285 tonnes), the total export value surged by 50.2% (from €178 million to €267 million). This divergence was driven by a 34.5% increase in average export prices (from €2,305 to €3,099 per tonne), indicating a shift towards higher-value exports or general price inflation within the market. The trade overview confirms that export value reached its peak in 2024 at nearly €349 million, before moderating in 2025.

The export market landscape became more diversified and dynamic

The top export partners reveal significant structural shifts. While the United States remained the largest single destination, its share fluctuated. The most dramatic change was the rise of Mexico, which saw its import value from the EU increase by 686.3% over the period, becoming a major market by 2025. Conversely, exports to India fell by 64.2%. This diversification reduced the EU's export concentration, as evidenced by a 31.7% decline in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).

2. Production Contraction and Concentrated Intra-EU Specialisation

Behind the strong trade figures lies a story of declining domestic production volumes but rising production value, coupled with a highly specialised geographic production base within the EU.

EU production volumes fell while values increased

According to production data, EU production of olive pomace oil decreased by 29.0% in volume (from 544,000 to 386,100 tonnes) over the period. However, the total production value increased by 58.7% (from €835 million to €1.325 billion). This stark contrast underscores the impact of rising commodity prices and suggests producers may have been focusing on higher-quality or more refined products.

Production is highly concentrated in a few southern Member States

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that olive pomace oil production is overwhelmingly concentrated in traditional olive-growing regions. Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are the most specialised producers, accounting for nearly the entire EU output. Spain alone contributed 39.6% of total EU production value. This geographical concentration creates regional economic dependencies but also reflects natural climatic advantages.

3. Price Volatility and External Supply Risks

The market exhibited significant price volatility, particularly in 2022, and remains reliant on imports from a handful of North African suppliers, creating specific supply chain vulnerabilities.

Prices experienced severe shocks, particularly in 2022

The volatility and shock analysis identifies 2022 as a year of abnormal price movements in exports to several partners. For instance, the export price to Oman showed an abnormality score of 267.5, with a 73.9% price shift that year. Similarly, prices to Kuwait and Israel saw dramatic increases. These shocks were likely linked to the broader global energy and commodity price spikes following geopolitical events.

Import supply is volatile and concentrated on a few partners

While the EU is a net exporter, its imports are more volatile and geographically concentrated. Tunisia and Morocco are the primary suppliers. The coefficient of variation (CV) for imports from Tunisia (0.36) and Morocco (0.42) is notably higher than for key export partners like the US (0.19) or Japan (0.18). The import HHI remained elevated above 5,000, indicating a high degree of supplier concentration for the product the EU does import.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's olive pomace oil market evolved into a high-value, export-oriented sector. Key dynamics include: 1) a strong and strengthening trade surplus driven more by price increases than volume expansion; 2) a shift in export destinations with rapid growth in emerging markets like Mexico; 3) a decline in domestic production volumes that was more than offset by rising production values, underlining a sector affected by cost and price inflation; and 4) persistent vulnerability to price shocks and supply chain risks due to the geographic concentration of both intra-EU production and external imports. The EU's position remains robust, but the market's stability is continually tested by global price volatility and the agricultural dependency of its supply base.