Market evolution: Groundnut oil (CN 1508) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of groundnut oil (CN 1508 — "Groundnut oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified") in the European Union over the period 2015–2025. Groundnut oil is a niche but valued edible oil, used in food processing and as a premium cooking oil. The EU has historically been a net importer of this product, and the decade under review reveals a market shaped by shrinking physical trade volumes, surging unit prices, a dramatic reshuffling of supplier countries, and a growing structural dependence on imports even as domestic production contracts. The scope and definitions of the product are detailed on the Trade Dashboard.

1. Shrinking physical volumes, climbing unit prices: a structural decoupling

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the simultaneous decline in traded volumes and the rise in unit prices, for both imports and exports. This pattern points to a tightening supply environment rather than a demand boom.

Import volumes fell by over a third while values remained historically elevated

EU imports of groundnut oil dropped from 69,283 tonnes in 2015 to 45,135 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 34.9% (general overview). Despite this contraction, import values only fell by 20.5% (from €83.0 million to €66.0 million), because import unit prices rose by 22.0% — from €1,198/t to €1,462/t. The minimum price recorded over the period was €1,057/t and the peak was €1,866/t, suggesting significant price volatility layered on top of the upward trend.

Export volumes declined even more steeply, yet export revenues grew

EU exports tell a similar but even more pronounced story. Export volumes fell by 28.4% — from 9,135 tonnes to 6,545 tonnes — yet export values increased by 21.5%, rising from €14.0 million to €17.0 million. This was possible because export unit prices surged by 69.5%, from €1,536/t to €2,604/t, with a peak of €2,817/t. The EU thus managed to earn more from fewer tonnes shipped, reflecting both global commodity-price inflation and a possible shift towards higher-value refined exports.

The crude/refined product mix tells a more nuanced story

The segment-level data (product segment breakdown) reveals that the EU's import base is overwhelmingly crude groundnut oil (CN 150810), which accounted for 44,875 tonnes out of the 45,135 total imported in 2025. However, crude import volumes declined from 67,723 tonnes in 2015 — a drop of 33.7%. Refined groundnut oil (CN 150890) imports are tiny by comparison (260 tonnes in 2025), but their unit price escalated dramatically: from €1,534/t in 2015 to €4,153/t in 2025, peaking at €5,100/t in 2024.

On the export side, the composition shifted decisively. Refined oil (CN 150890) has always dominated EU exports by volume (6,491 tonnes in 2025 vs. 54 tonnes of crude), but crude exports collapsed from 2,168 tonnes in 2015 to just 54 tonnes in 2025. What remains of EU groundnut oil exports is almost entirely refined product. The unit price of exported crude oil reached an extraordinary €14,921/t in 2025 — likely reflecting niche, small-batch specialty trade rather than bulk commerce.

2. A dramatic reshuffling of supplier geography and rising import concentration

Behind the headline trade figures lies a profound reorganisation of the EU's groundnut oil supply base. Several traditional suppliers have all but disappeared, while others — particularly in Latin America — have gained market share. This reshuffling has increased supplier concentration and introduced new vulnerability patterns.

Senegal's collapse is the single most dramatic shift

Senegal was the EU's largest import partner by value in 2015, supplying €31.1 million worth of groundnut oil. By 2025, imports from Senegal had fallen to just €275,180 — a decline of 99.1% (top partners by value). This near-total withdrawal is highly volatile (coefficient of variation: 0.95) and likely reflects a combination of factors: Senegal's own domestic processing capacity expanding (diverting crude oil to local refining), geopolitical or climatic disruptions to peanut cultivation, and the competitive rise of alternative suppliers.

Latin American suppliers filled the void

Brazil rose from €20.0 million to €30.7 million (+54.1%), becoming the EU's top supplier by value in 2025. Argentina grew from €10.2 million to €13.4 million (+32.0%). Nicaragua more than doubled from €8.2 million to €18.7 million (+127.9%). Together, these three Latin American countries supplied the vast majority of the EU's groundnut oil imports in 2025, a stark contrast to 2015 when West African suppliers dominated.

Other West African suppliers also declined, though less dramatically

Gambia fell from €5.7 million to €1.3 million (−77.9%). The United States, once a €5.9 million supplier, dropped to €1.7 million (−71.1%). Sudan emerged from near-zero to €9.4 million at its peak before retreating to negligible levels — its coefficient of variation of 1.67 signals extreme instability.

Import concentration has increased significantly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,331 to 3,395 — an increase of 45.7% (concentration data). In volume terms, the increase was even steeper at 50.6%. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market; at 3,395, the EU's groundnut oil import market is now firmly in that territory. This growing concentration is a direct consequence of the decline of diversified West African sourcing and the consolidation around a smaller number of Latin American suppliers.

Export markets also shifted, but with less dramatic concentration changes

EU groundnut oil exports are heavily oriented toward the United Kingdom (€8.3 million, +35.4%) and Norway (€3.3 million, +39.4%), two geographically proximate non-EU markets. Exports to Switzerland collapsed from €3.5 million to €0.5 million (−85.6%). Notable new markets emerged: the United Arab Emirates (from €9,600 to €618,227, +6,339%) and South Korea (from €54,407 to €528,297, +871%), suggesting that EU exporters found niche opportunities in Middle Eastern and East Asian markets. The export HHI rose only modestly (+6.5%), reflecting the relative stability of the UK and Norway as anchor markets.

Within the EU, Italy and the Netherlands dominate imports while Belgium leads exports

Among EU member states, Italy remained the largest importer throughout the period (€41.6 million in 2025, −4.4% vs. 2015), followed by the Netherlands, which more than doubled its share (€14.3 million, +127.6%). France and Belgium saw sharp declines (−73.6% and −77.5% respectively) as importing hubs (top reporters by value). On the export side, Belgium nearly doubled its exports to €10.5 million (+99.6%), consolidating its position as the EU's main groundnut oil re-exporter. France's exports, by contrast, collapsed by 86.8%.

3. Declining EU production and a deepening structural import dependence

The third major dynamic of this period is the erosion of the EU's own groundnut oil production capacity, which has worsened the trade balance trajectory and increased vulnerability to supply disruptions from a concentrated set of non-EU partners.

EU production has halved in physical terms

EU production of groundnut oil (production volumes) fell from 79.1 million kg in 2015 to 42.0 million kg in 2025, a decline of 46.9%. Production value was essentially flat (€101.0 million vs. €100.8 million, −0.1%), meaning that while the EU produced far less oil, it earned the same revenue — again reflecting the higher unit values of the era. This divergence between falling output and stable revenue implies that what production remains is increasingly concentrated in higher-value refined segments.

The Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium specialise in groundnut oil within the EU

The specialisation analysis (specialisation data) identifies the Netherlands (RSCA: 0.51, RCA: 3.09), Italy (RSCA: 0.48, RCA: 2.86), and Belgium (RSCA: 0.31, RCA: 1.91) as the most specialised EU producers. The Netherlands alone accounts for 44.9% of EU groundnut oil production by value. By contrast, most other EU member states show near-zero specialisation — several, including Hungary, Czechia, Denmark, Slovenia, and Lithuania, have RCA values effectively at zero, indicating that groundnut oil production is negligible or absent in those countries.

Net import reliance shifted from self-sufficiency to structural deficit

Perhaps the most consequential indicator is net import reliance, which measures the EU's dependence on external suppliers relative to its own supply (net import reliance). In 2015, this figure stood at −11.3%, meaning the EU was a slight net exporter on a value-adjusted basis. By 2025, net import reliance had swung to +37.3%, a shift of 429.3%. The EU is now firmly and structurally dependent on imported groundnut oil.

Trade intensity and export propensity both rose sharply

Trade intensity — the share of domestic consumption met through trade — surged from 13.0% to 54.6% (+321.6%), confirming that the EU market has become far more integrated with global supply chains (trade intensity). Export propensity also increased, from 11.7% to 19.0% (+63.1%) (export propensity). The salience analysis assigns the highest importance to trade intensity (score: 326.2) over export propensity (94.1), underscoring that the defining feature of this market is its deepening import dependence rather than its export orientation.

Volatility data flags specific supplier risks

The volatility analysis (volatility bars) highlights that several import partners are highly unstable: India (CV: 2.57), Sudan (CV: 1.67), and the United States (CV: 1.38) show extreme year-to-year swings. Among export destinations, Switzerland (CV: 1.21) and Hong Kong (CV: 1.30) are the most volatile. A significant price shock was detected in 2019 for EU exports to Switzerland, with an 83.3% price shift and an abnormality score of 848.9 (shock events), though this likely reflects a one-off contract or quality reclassification rather than a systemic disruption, given Switzerland's subsequent decline as an export destination.

Conclusion

The EU's groundnut oil market between 2015 and 2025 has undergone a fundamental transformation. Trade volumes have contracted on both the import and export sides, but rising unit prices — driven by global commodity inflation and tighter supply — have kept trade values relatively resilient. The most consequential structural change has been the dramatic shift in supplier geography: the collapse of West African sources (led by Senegal's 99.1% decline) and the consolidation around Latin American suppliers (Brazil, Argentina, Nicaragua) has increased import concentration to an HHI of 3,395, a level that signals meaningful supply risk. Simultaneously, EU domestic production has halved, flipping the bloc from near self-sufficiency to a net import reliance of 37.3%. Trade intensity has quadrupled, confirming that the EU market is now deeply intertwined with global supply chains for this product. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, the key vulnerability lies in the conjunction of declining domestic capacity and a narrowing, more concentrated import base — a combination that leaves the EU exposed to supply shocks from a small number of non-EU countries.