Market evolution: Other vegetable oils (CN 1515) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in CN 1515 — a residual category covering fixed vegetable or microbial fats and oils not elsewhere classified in Chapter 15. The heading encompasses a heterogeneous set of products including castor oil, sesame oil, linseed oil, maize (corn) oil, jojoba oil, and a broad residual group of specialty and minor vegetable oils. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in these products underwent significant structural transformation: trade values nearly doubled for both imports and exports, unit prices surged, sourcing and destination geographies shifted markedly, and the EU's position moved from a mild net exporter to a substantial net importer. EU domestic production, meanwhile, expanded dramatically. The following three sections detail these dynamics.

For an overview of the product definition and the full time series, see the Scope & Definitions and General Overview sections on the Trade Dashboard.

1. Steady volume growth accompanied by a dramatic price escalation

1.1 Import and export values both nearly doubled in a decade

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 1515 rose from €497 million to €944 million (+90.1%), while exports grew from €335 million to €793 million (+136.7%). The faster growth on the export side narrowed the trade deficit somewhat, from €162 million to €152 million, but the EU remained a net importer throughout the period.

1.2 Volume growth was positive but far more modest than the value surge

Import volumes grew from 317,972 t to 394,956 t (+24.2%), peaking at 430,012 t along the way. Export volumes rose from 152,539 t to 218,199 t (+43.0%). The gap between value growth (+90% to +137%) and quantity growth (+24% to +43%) points squarely to a major role for unit-price inflation. Indeed, average import prices climbed from €1,562/t to €2,390/t (+53.0%), and average export prices from €2,195/t to €3,632/t (+65.5%). This price escalation reflects both the global commodity-price cycle (notably the 2021–2022 spike driven by supply-chain disruptions and the Ukraine war) and a structural shift toward higher-value specialty oil products.

1.3 The residual category (151590) drove most of the growth on both sides

Within the product segment breakdown, the residual subheading 151590 ("Other fixed vegetable fats and oils n.e.s.") emerged as the clear growth engine:

Imports of 151590 doubled in volume and surged 159% in value, making it the single largest import category by value by 2025 (€550 M). On the export side, 151590 similarly dominated: volumes grew from 69,837 t to 137,584 t (+97%) and values from €231 M to €641 M (+178%). Castor oil (151530), by contrast, saw import volumes decline slightly, suggesting that the broader growth in CN 1515 was driven by demand for niche and specialty oils rather than any single commodity.

2. A geographic rebalancing of trade flows

2.1 India remained the dominant import partner, but African and South American suppliers surged

India was the EU's top supplier throughout the period, with imports valued at €206 million in 2015 and €247 million in 2025 (+19.5%). India's stability (coefficient of variation of only 0.08 for import values) made it a reliable anchor. However, the most striking growth came from other origins:

Ghana, Kenya, and Burkina Faso — all West and East African producers — became major suppliers, likely reflecting growing European demand for shea butter, castor oil, and other tropical specialty fats. Brazil's rise from €8 M to €78 M is also notable and may be linked to expanded castor and other specialty oil production. The concentration analysis confirms this diversification: the import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) fell sharply from 2,085 to 1,070 (−48.7%), moving from a moderately concentrated to a competitive sourcing structure.

2.2 Export destinations became more concentrated, with the United States dominating

In contrast to the diversification of imports, EU export flows became more concentrated. The export HHI rose from 756 to 1,975 (+161.4%). The main driver was the explosive growth of exports to the United States, which surged from €50 million to €314 million (+525%). The US alone accounted for a large and growing share of EU export value by 2025.

The growing reliance on the US market is a notable structural vulnerability: any trade-policy shift (tariffs, regulatory changes) could have an outsized impact on EU export performance.

2.3 Within the EU, Spain and Italy emerged as the leading trade hubs

Among EU Member States, import and export leadership consolidated in southern Europe:

Spain's export growth of over 600% is remarkable and aligns with the country's specialisation in CN 1515 (RSCA of 0.51 in 2025, the second-highest in the EU after Portugal). On the import side, the Netherlands (€157 M → €280 M), Spain (€56 M → €157 M), and Italy (€27 M → €135 M) showed the largest absolute increases. These countries' roles as processing and re-export hubs help explain why both import and export growth are concentrated in the same Member States. See the reporters breakdown and partners breakdown.

3. A production boom reshapes the EU's trade position and vulnerability profile

3.1 EU domestic production expanded massively

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production of CN 1515 products grew from 345 million kg to 3,115 million kg in quantity (+804%) and from €430 million to €2,475 million in value (+476%). Production peaked at 3,857 million kg. This extraordinary expansion likely reflects the scaling-up of industrial processing capacity for specialty oils (e.g., castor oil derivatives, microbial oils, and other bio-based feedstocks), possibly driven by the EU's bio-economy and sustainability strategies.

3.2 The EU shifted from net exporter to net importer

Despite the production surge, the EU's net import reliance moved from −12.9% in 2015 to +38.3% in 2025. In 2015, exports exceeded imports relative to the domestic supply balance, indicating a net-exporting position. By 2025, the EU was structurally dependent on external supply, with imports far exceeding exports in volume terms relative to production. The shift likely reflects the fact that much of the production growth served domestic industrial demand (e.g., for bio-lubricants, cosmetics, and oleochemicals), while the raw material inputs for that production increasingly came from abroad.

Trade intensity — the ratio of (imports + exports) to (production + imports − exports) — rose from 21.7% to 76.4%, indicating that the EU's CN 1515 sector became dramatically more intertwined with global markets over the decade. Export propensity also increased from 17.2% to 50.0%.

3.3 Supply-side volatility poses emerging risks

The volatility analysis reveals that several of the EU's newer and fastest-growing suppliers are also among the most volatile. Brazil (CV = 1.58), Kenya (CV = 1.24), and the United States (CV = 1.15) for imports, and Libya (CV = 1.68), Morocco (CV = 1.22), and Türkiye (CV = 1.10) for exports all exhibit high year-to-year variability. Meanwhile, detected price shocks include a 287% price spike on US imports in 2019, a 257% spike on UAE exports in 2022, and a 106% spike on Morocco exports in 2020. While the diversification of import origins (falling HHI) provides some buffer, the increasing net import reliance means that disruptions in key supplying countries would now have a larger impact on the EU market than they would have a decade ago.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 1515 products underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Trade values roughly doubled on both the import and export sides, but this growth was powered more by rising unit prices (+53–66%) than by volume expansion (+24–43%). The product mix shifted toward the residual category 151590, which now dominates both imports and exports. Geographically, import sourcing diversified significantly (HHI halved), with African and South American suppliers displacing the United States, while export flows concentrated heavily on the United States (HHI more than doubled). The most consequential structural shift, however, is the EU's transition from a net exporter to a net importer (net import reliance: −13% → +38%), driven by surging domestic industrial demand for specialty and microbial oils that outpaced even the remarkable 800%+ growth in EU production. This growing import dependence, combined with the volatility profile of newer supplier countries, suggests that supply-chain resilience for CN 1515 products will be an increasingly important policy consideration in the years ahead.