Market evolution: Other vegetable oils (CN 151590) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in "other vegetable oils" under Combined Nomenclature code 151590 over the period 2015–2025. This residual product category covers fixed vegetable fats and oils and their fractions — whether or not refined, but not chemically modified — that are not separately classified under the major commodity headings (soya-bean, groundnut, olive, palm, sunflower-seed, safflower, cotton-seed, coconut, palm kernel, babassu, rape/colza/mustard, linseed, maize, castor, sesame, and microbial oils). The category therefore encompasses a diverse basket of niche oils, including tung, jojoba, and oiticica oils, tobacco-seed oil, and various other fixed vegetable fats and oils reported or traded under the eight-digit subheadings.

Over the decade analysed, the EU's trade in this product group has expanded dramatically in both value and volume terms, while shifting from a modest trade surplus to a more substantial one. The period has been characterised by rising unit prices — reflecting broader global commodity price trends — alongside a significant structural transformation of the EU's supplier and customer base. Domestic production has surged, trade intensity remains high, and the geographic concentration of export flows has increased markedly.

1. A decade of rapid value and volume growth in both directions of trade

1.1 Imports and exports have more than doubled in value over the decade

The overall trade picture reveals a market that has grown very substantially between 2015 and 2025. EU imports of CN 151590 products rose from €212.2 million in 2015 to €549.6 million in 2025, representing an increase of 159%. In volume terms, imports grew from 70,117 tonnes to 142,451 tonnes (+103%). On the export side, growth has been even more pronounced: value rose from €230.8 million to €640.5 million (+177.5%), and volume from 69,837 tonnes to 137,584 tonnes (+97%).

1.2 Unit prices have risen markedly, with exports commanding a persistent premium

A notable feature of this market is the consistent price premium that EU exports carry relative to imports. In 2015, the average export price stood at €3,305 per tonne versus €3,027 for imports, a gap of roughly €278 per tonne. By 2025, that premium had widened to nearly €797 per tonne (€4,655 for exports vs. €3,858 for imports). This suggests that the EU tends to export higher-value-added or more refined products while importing lower-cost crude or bulk oils, consistent with the EU's general role as a processor and re-exporter in many agri-food value chains. The import price reached its lowest point in 2017 at €2,751 per tonne before climbing to its 2025 peak, tracking the global commodity price upcycle of the early 2020s.

1.3 The EU has maintained and strengthened its trade surplus

Throughout most of the period, the EU has run a trade surplus in CN 151590 products. This trade balance fluctuated considerably: it stood at €18.6 million in 2015, peaked at €164.8 million in 2021 (a year of strong export performance), then moderated to €90.9 million in 2025. The net import reliance ratio — measuring the share of apparent consumption satisfied by imports — decreased slightly from 43.5% in 2015 to 40.6% in 2025, having dipped as low as 21.8% in the peak-surplus year of 2021. This indicates that while the EU remains a significant importer of these oils, it has been able to offset imports with growing domestic production and expanding exports.

2. A fundamental reconfiguration of the EU's trade partners

2.1 West Africa has become the dominant source of EU imports

The most striking transformation on the import side has been the dramatic rise of West African suppliers. Ghana, already the leading import partner in 2015 at €29.7 million, grew to €100.2 million in 2025 (+237%), consolidating its top position. Even more striking was the emergence of Kenya as a major supplier: imports from Kenya surged from a mere €1.6 million in 2015 to €87.0 million in 2025 — a staggering increase of over 5,400%. Burkina Faso similarly grew from €4.4 million to €36.4 million (+728%).

These shifts likely reflect growing production of niche vegetable oils (such as shea butter or other non-classified tropical oils) in Sub-Saharan Africa, combined with EU policy incentives favouring imports from developing countries and rising European demand for specialty and "natural" ingredients in cosmetics, food, and industrial applications. The decline in imports from the United States (−55%) and Togo (−93%) further underscores this geographic reorientation toward East Africa.

2.2 The United States has become the EU's dominant export market

On the export side, the single most dramatic shift has been the surge in EU sales to the United States, which grew from €48.1 million in 2015 to €301.6 million in 2025 — an increase of 526%. This single destination now accounts for nearly half of all EU exports in this product category. Other significant growth markets include China (from €7.4M to €36.3M, +389%), Canada (from €8.7M to €26.0M, +199%), and the United Kingdom (from €20.1M to €39.3M, +96%). South Korea and Russia also remained sizeable, though more moderately growing, markets.

2.3 Export concentration has risen sharply, signalling growing reliance on key markets

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value increased from 1,065 in 2015 to 2,746 in 2025 — a rise of 158%. While still below the conventional threshold of 2,500 for "highly concentrated" markets in competition policy, the trend is notable and is almost entirely driven by the growing weight of the US market. Import-side concentration by value rose only modestly (from 736 to 825, +12%), indicating that import sources have diversified somewhat even as individual African partners have grown. In volume terms, import concentration actually declined by 26%, suggesting that the new African flows have broadened rather than concentrated the supply base.

3. Domestic production surge and evolving internal market dynamics

3.1 EU production of other vegetable oils has grown explosively

Perhaps the most striking statistic in the entire dataset concerns domestic production. EU production of CN 151590 products grew from 258,766 thousand kg (≈259 thousand tonnes) in 2015 to 2,923,668 thousand kg (≈2,924 thousand tonnes) in 2025 — an increase of over 1,000% in volume and 792% in value (from €254 million to €2,262 million). This is an extraordinary expansion that dwarfs the growth in trade flows and suggests a fundamental shift in the scale of the EU's domestic industry for these niche oils and fats.

This production surge helps explain why the net import reliance ratio has remained moderate (around 40%) despite robust import growth: the EU's own production base has expanded even faster than demand. The trade intensity of the product group remains very high at approximately 79.9% in 2025 (with a salience score of 30.2), confirming that this remains a deeply trade-oriented market despite the production boom. The export propensity stood at 52.6% in 2025.

3.2 Iberian and Italian producers have emerged as the EU's export powerhouses

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals a strong geographic concentration of export competitiveness within the EU. Portugal leads with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.83, followed by Spain (0.65) and Denmark (0.45). In absolute terms, Spain's export value surged from €31.3 million to €227.7 million (+628%), and Italy's from €53.1 million to €200.3 million (+277%). Together, Spain and Italy accounted for €428 million — roughly two-thirds of all EU exports — in 2025. This concentration in Southern Europe likely reflects the region's established oilseed crushing and refining infrastructure, as well as proximity to Mediterranean and North African sources of raw materials.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland, Cyprus, Greece, and Romania show no comparative advantage (negative RSCA scores close to −1), consistent with their limited involvement in vegetable oil processing.

3.3 Product composition has shifted toward bulk refined oils and industrial uses

The product segment breakdown shows that the two dominant import sub-categories are CN 15159059 (crude fixed vegetable fats and oils in packings >1 kg or crude liquid) and CN 15159099 (refined fixed vegetable fats and oils in packings >1 kg or liquid, n.e.s.). In 2025, imports of the former stood at 64,469 tonnes (€254.5 million) and the latter at 64,800 tonnes (€261.6 million), together accounting for over 90% of import value. Notably, imports of CN 15159099 tripled in volume from 26,781 to 64,800 tonnes over the decade, while crude oil imports (15159059) grew more modestly (from 36,645 to 64,469 tonnes).

On the export side, the dominant category is also CN 15159099, which grew from 56,438 tonnes (€162.6 million) to 112,946 tonnes (€547.4 million). Exports of oils for technical or industrial uses (CN 15159060) tripled in volume from 5,897 to 17,010 tonnes, though their unit price fell from €4,231 to €1,792 per tonne — suggesting a shift toward higher-volume, lower-margin industrial applications. Specialty oils (CN 15159011, tung/jojoba/oiticica) remained a small but stable segment, with export values rising from €8.5 million to €13.8 million.

3.4 Supply volatility is concentrated in a handful of African partners

The volatility analysis reveals that import-side supply risk is highest for the newest and fastest-growing African partners. Kenya (CV = 1.20) and Togo (CV = 1.00) show the highest coefficients of variation, reflecting their recent and volatile entry into the EU market. Vietnam (CV = 1.49) also shows extreme volatility, though from a small base. Among the established suppliers, Ghana (CV = 0.22) and India (CV = 0.23) are relatively stable. On the export side, the United Kingdom (CV = 0.51) and Mexico (CV = 0.91) are the most volatile destinations, while Japan (CV = 0.18) and Korea (CV = 0.19) are the most stable.

Several supply shock events were detected, most notably a massive price spike in imports from Vietnam in 2019 (abnormality score of 92,883, with prices shifting by over 1,000%), a significant UK import price shock in 2019 (+25.5%), and a US import price shock in 2021 (+28.7%). These events, while noteworthy, affected relatively small shares of total trade value (1.5% for Vietnam, 14.9% for the UK, 9.2% for the US), limiting their systemic impact.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 151590 "other vegetable oils" has undergone a remarkable transformation between 2015 and 2025. Both trade flows have roughly doubled in volume and more than doubled in value, driven by rising global commodity prices and expanding demand from the food, cosmetics, and industrial sectors. The EU has strengthened its trade surplus and maintained its role as both a major importer of raw materials and a significant exporter of higher-value processed products.

The most consequential structural shifts have been geographic: West African countries — particularly Kenya, Ghana, and Burkina Faso — have emerged as the dominant sources of EU imports, replacing traditional Western suppliers. On the export side, the United States has become by far the largest destination, absorbing nearly half of all EU exports and driving a significant increase in export concentration. Domestically, EU production has expanded at an extraordinary pace (over 1,000% in volume), with Iberian and Italian producers emerging as the leading exporters.

These developments present both opportunities and vulnerabilities. The high trade intensity of the product (≈80%) confirms its deep integration into global value chains, while the rising export concentration toward the US market and the volatility of emerging African supply sources warrant close monitoring. Going forward, the sustainability and diversification of both supply chains and export markets will be key factors shaping the resilience of this dynamic market segment.