Market evolution: Crude glycerol (CN 1520) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in crude glycerol, glycerol waters and glycerol lyes (Combined Nomenclature code 1520) over the period 2015–2025. Crude glycerol is a by-product of biodiesel and oleochemical production, which makes its supply dynamics closely linked to the biofuels sector. The analysis draws on the General Overview data from the EU Trade Dashboard. Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of crude glycerol, with trade values and prices rising substantially.

1. The EU's dramatic rise as a net glycerol exporter

Trade surplus expanded nearly fourfold

The EU's trade balance for crude glycerol widened from €25.4 million in 2015 to €98.7 million in 2025 — a 288.5% increase. Throughout the period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in every year, confirming its structural role as a net exporter. The net import reliance ratio remained negative throughout (from −28.1% to −18.4%), with the deepest point at −48.5% appearing during the mid-period.

Export volumes grew strongly but prices grew even faster

Export quantities rose from 183,917 tonnes to 314,730 tonnes (+71.1%), while export values surged by 238.3%. This divergence signals that price appreciation was the primary driver of value growth: the average unit export price nearly doubled from €224/t to €443/t (+97.7%). Similarly, import unit prices rose from €271/t to €429/t (+58.1%), confirming that the price increase was a market-wide phenomenon rather than an EU-specific one.

EU domestic production expanded in parallel with exports

EU production volumes grew from approximately 160,073 tonnes to 720,870 tonnes (+350.3%), while production values rose from €37.7 million to €186.4 million (+394.9%). This expansion is consistent with the growth of the EU's biodiesel sector, where crude glycerol emerges as a co-product. The fact that exports grew less than production (+71.1% in volume vs. +350.3%) suggests that a growing share of EU-produced glycerol is being consumed domestically or refined within the bloc.

Trade intensity increased moderately

The trade intensity ratio — measuring the share of glycerol that is traded relative to production — rose from 32.9% to 38.6%, indicating that the market became somewhat more integrated into international flows over the decade. Export propensity remained relatively stable at around 29–30%, meaning roughly a third of EU production is consistently destined for external markets.

2. A decade of price shocks and market tightening

Prices more than doubled across the board

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sustained increase in glycerol prices. Unit export prices climbed from €224/t in 2015 to €531/t at their peak, before settling at €443/t in 2025. Import prices followed a similar trajectory, reaching a peak of €785/t — significantly higher than export prices in that same period — before easing to €429/t by 2025. The price differential between imports and exports in some years suggests periods of market dislocation or specific supply constraints on the import side.

Key price shock events concentrated around 2021–2022

The volatility and shocks analysis identifies three major price shock events:

These events cluster around 2021–2022, a period of global commodity price inflation and supply chain disruption. The India export shock is particularly notable: with a 14.3% share of export value, a 184% price surge on this corridor had significant implications for EU trade revenues. The UK import shock in 2022 likely reflects post-Brexit trade frictions and logistics disruptions rather than fundamental supply shifts.

Import sources display the highest volatility

The coefficient of variation for import partners is notably high, especially for newer suppliers:

On the export side, China (CV: 0.29) and India (CV: 0.47) show moderate volatility, while smaller markets like Pakistan (0.98) and the United Arab Emirates (1.37) are more erratic — consistent with episodic rather than structural trade relationships.

3. A shifting geographic landscape on both import and export sides

The EU's import profile was transformed by Asian and South American suppliers

The composition of the EU's glycerol imports changed dramatically over the decade. Indonesia's share surged from a negligible €566K in 2015 to €23.1 million in 2025 (+3,990%), with a peak of €60.8 million making it the largest single import source. Brazil and Malaysia similarly emerged from near-zero to become meaningful suppliers. This reflects the rapid expansion of palm oil-based biodiesel in Southeast Asia, which generates large volumes of crude glycerol seeking export markets.

The United States' near-total withdrawal from the EU import market (−95.5%) is equally striking and likely reflects both the redirection of US glycerol to other destinations and increased US domestic demand.

Export destinations shifted from Europe towards emerging markets

On the export side, the most dramatic growth came from markets in Asia and the Middle East:

China emerged as the EU's dominant glycerol export market, growing from €10.2 million to €48.0 million. Türkiye and India both experienced extraordinary growth of over 1,000%, emerging as major second and third destinations. In contrast, both the United Kingdom and Ukraine — the two largest traditional markets in 2015 — saw sharp declines. The UK's contraction (−81.5%) is consistent with post-Brexit trade barriers, while Ukraine's decline (−83%) reflects geopolitical disruptions, particularly from 2022 onwards.

Spain and Romania became the EU's leading glycerol exporters

Among EU Member States, Spain consolidated its position as the leading exporter with €45.1 million in 2025 (+338%), followed by Germany at €31.5 million (+220%). Romania showed the fastest growth at +506%, rising to €10.1 million. On the import side, the Netherlands dominated at €30.4 million (+174%), consistent with its role as a major European logistics hub for commodity flows. The specialisation data confirms that Lithuania (RSCA: 0.64) and Latvia (RSCA: 0.40) have the strongest comparative advantage in glycerol exports relative to their overall trade profiles, though their absolute volumes remain modest.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU crude glycerol market underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with the trade surplus expanding to €98.7 million, driven by both volume growth and a near-doubling of unit prices. This expansion was underpinned by a 350% increase in domestic production, closely linked to the growth of the EU biodiesel sector.

The geographic landscape shifted significantly on both sides of the trade ledger. Asian producers — led by Indonesia, Malaysia and Brazil — reshaped the import market, while China, Türkiye and India became the EU's most important export destinations, displacing the UK and Ukraine. Price volatility was concentrated in the 2021–2022 period, consistent with the global commodity price cycle, and import-side supply showed persistently higher volatility than export markets.

Going forward, the market's trajectory will depend on the evolution of global biodiesel mandates, the development of glycerol refining capacity within the EU, and geopolitical dynamics affecting trade with key partners such as Russia, Ukraine and the UK.