Market evolution: Margarine and fat mixtures (CN 1517) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in goods classified under Combined Nomenclature code 1517 — covering margarine, other edible mixtures or preparations of animal or vegetable fats or oils, and edible fractions of different fats or oils — over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis draws on trade overview data, partner-level breakdowns, concentration and specialisation indicators, and vulnerability metrics. Over this decade, the EU's trade in margarine and fat mixtures was shaped by three overarching dynamics: a strengthening of the EU's net export position, a pronounced price shock in 2022 linked to global commodity turbulence, and a significant reshuffling of trade partners on both the import and export sides.

1. The EU's Deepening Role as a Net Exporter

1.1 The trade surplus more than doubled between 2015 and 2025

The EU maintained a structurally positive trade balance throughout the entire period, and this surplus widened considerably. The balance in value terms grew from €319 million in 2015 to €668 million in 2025 — an increase of 109.6%. Net import reliance moved from −3.9% to −16.8%, confirming that the EU became progressively more self-sufficient — or rather, more oriented toward external markets as a supplier. The negative sign of this indicator throughout the period signals persistent net exporting status, and its deepening magnitude indicates that the surplus grew faster than overall domestic production.

1.2 Export value growth far outpaced volume growth, reflecting a price-driven expansion

A critical nuance is that the EU's export expansion was driven more by rising prices than by increasing volumes. Export quantity rose modestly from 376,542 tonnes to 415,377 tonnes (+10.3%), while export value surged by 81.9%. The average export unit price climbed from €1,438/t in 2015 to €2,370/t in 2025 (+64.8%). This pattern — visible across both product segments — suggests that EU exporters were able to capture higher margins or that global raw material cost increases were passed through into finished product prices.

1.3 Domestic production volumes fell even as export propensity surged

Despite the EU's strengthening export profile, domestic production volumes declined by 20.1% (from approximately 3.14 billion kg to 2.51 billion kg), while production value rose by 18.3% (from €3.59 billion to €4.25 billion). This mirrors the trade-side pattern: rising unit values offset declining physical volumes. Export propensity — the share of EU production destined for non-EU markets — grew from 7.3% to 21.0% (+188.4%), while trade intensity doubled from 10.4% to 26.0%. The EU margarine and fat preparations sector thus became markedly more trade-oriented over the decade, even as its physical output contracted.

2. The 2022 Price Shock and Its Lasting Effects

2.1 Global commodity turmoil drove a sharp price spike in 2022

The year 2022 stands out as a pivotal moment in the data. Global vegetable oil and fat markets were disrupted by the convergence of pandemic-era supply chain pressures, the Russia–Ukraine conflict (both major sunflower oil producers), and surging energy costs. The shock detection analysis identifies three significant price shocks centred on 2022:

The UK import price shock is particularly notable given that the UK was the EU's single largest export destination by value, accounting for 32.9% of export value in that period. The Belarus shock — a 127.7% price jump — likely reflects the combined effects of sanctions-related trade reorientation and raw material cost passthrough.

2.2 Export prices peaked around 2022–2023 and remained elevated

For the sub-product 151790 (edible fat mixtures and preparations), the average export price jumped from €1,709/t in 2020 to €2,602/t in 2022, eventually reaching €2,738/t by 2025. For 151710 (solid margarine), export prices rose from €1,168/t in 2020 to €1,886/t in 2022, settling at €1,856/t in 2025. Prices thus increased sharply and, unlike in many commodity markets, did not revert to pre-shock levels. This suggests a structural repricing rather than a temporary spike, possibly linked to sustained higher input costs or shifts in product mix toward higher-value preparations.

2.3 Import prices moved inversely to export prices over the period

Interestingly, while export prices rose by 64.8% over the decade, import prices declined by 13.7% (from €2,579/t to €2,226/t). This divergence widened the EU's price premium: by 2025, the EU was exporting at an average of €2,370/t while importing at €2,226/t. The gap had been reversed in 2015 (imports at €2,579/t vs. exports at €1,438/t), indicating a fundamental shift in the EU's position — from importing higher-value preparations and exporting lower-value ones, to the opposite. This likely reflects both changing product mix and the EU's growing specialisation in higher-value-added fat preparations.

3. Shifting Partners, Rising Volatility, and Emerging Geographies

3.1 The UK remained the dominant export partner, but new markets surged

The United Kingdom was by far the EU's largest export destination throughout the period, growing from €119 million in 2015 to €272 million in 2025 (+129.2%). However, the most dramatic growth came from other markets:

The US market saw the most explosive growth (+532.4%), transforming from a minor destination to the EU's fifth-largest export market by 2025. Conversely, exports to Russia and Saudi Arabia roughly halved — the former likely reflecting sanctions and geopolitical tensions, the latter potentially linked to growing local or regional competition.

3.2 Import sources diversified dramatically, with Belarus and Indonesia emerging

Import concentration as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) collapsed from 3,210 to 1,451 (−54.8%), indicating a shift from a highly concentrated import base to a much more diversified one. Two suppliers saw explosive growth:

Belarus surged from virtually zero to €43 million, making it the second-largest import source by 2025 — a remarkable transformation likely linked to re-export dynamics and the country's role in the broader vegetable oil supply chain. Indonesia similarly grew from negligible levels to €22 million, reflecting its position as a major palm oil producer and processor. Both flows exhibit very high volatility (coefficients of variation of 1.50 and 1.13 respectively), consistent with their recent and potentially unstable emergence. Meanwhile, traditional suppliers like the US, UK, and Switzerland saw flat or slightly declining values.

3.3 EU Member States exhibited divergent specialisation and performance profiles

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a pronounced division within the EU. The Netherlands was the largest EU exporter (€178 million) and a major importer (€89 million), consistent with its role as a trade hub. Sweden, Belgium, Denmark, and Latvia showed the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA values above 2.3), indicating genuine export specialisation. By contrast, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Czechia had RCA values below 0.16, meaning they were net importers with little or no export specialisation.

Among the fastest-growing EU Member State exporters, Spain (+238.7%), Poland (+302.3%), and Italy (+183.1%) stand out — all three roughly tripled or quadrupled their export values over the decade. On the import side, Poland (+90.1%), Belgium (+696.9%), and Bulgaria (+1,709.7%) saw the fastest growth, suggesting shifting intra-EU production and re-export patterns.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in margarine and edible fat preparations (CN 1517) underwent a structural transformation. The bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with its trade surplus more than doubling to €668 million — a shift captured by the deepening of net import reliance to −16.8%. However, this export growth was overwhelmingly value-driven (unit prices +64.8%) rather than volume-driven (quantities +10.3%), against a backdrop of declining domestic production volumes. The 2022 commodity shock left a lasting imprint, elevating prices to a new plateau rather than producing a temporary spike. On the partner side, the trade landscape was reshaped by the rapid emergence of Belarus and Indonesia as import sources, the explosive growth of EU exports to the United States, and the contraction of Russian and Saudi markets. Within the EU, Member States like Spain, Poland, and Italy emerged as increasingly dynamic exporters, while the Netherlands continued to serve as the sector's primary hub. Looking ahead, the sector's rising trade intensity and export propensity signal growing exposure to global market dynamics — a factor that warrants monitoring given the persistently elevated volatility observed in several key partner relationships.