Market evolution: Olive oil (CN 1509) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in olive oil (Combined Nomenclature code 1509) over the 2015–2025 period. The European Union is a dominant global producer and exporter of olive oil, a sector characterized by strong regional specialization and significant price volatility. Drawing on the provided data, we identify three core dynamics: a robust expansion of the EU's export capacity, a concurrent structural shift toward higher-value production, and an increasing vulnerability to supply-side shocks despite a strengthening trade surplus. The analysis focuses on extra-virgin and virgin grades, which constitute the bulk of trade, and interprets trends in the context of production changes and global market pressures.

I. A Decade of Export-Led Growth and Shifting Trade Surpluses

The period under review was marked by substantial growth in EU olive oil exports, which significantly outpaced imports, leading to a dramatically expanded trade surplus.

Export Value and Volume Surged, Driven by Key Markets

EU exports of olive oil grew from a value of EUR 2.29 billion in 2015 to EUR 4.48 billion in 2025, an increase of 95.7% (General Overview). Over the same period, export volume rose by 44.6% to 778,346 tonnes. The primary destinations fueling this growth were the United States (+98.1% in value), Brazil (+122.2%), the United Kingdom (+80.5%), and Australia (+198.0%). These markets became increasingly vital for EU producers. The top export partners demonstrate a broad and stable base, with a low export concentration Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) that slightly decreased, indicating maintained diversification.

Import Stability Masked by Price Volatility and Geographic Shifts

Total EU import value remained relatively stable between 2015 (EUR 716 million) and 2025 (EUR 724 million), but this masks significant volatility and geographic restructuring. Import volume actually decreased by 20.0% to 189,209 tonnes, meaning the stable value was driven entirely by a 26.4% increase in average import prices. Tunisia remained the largest single supplier, but its value fluctuated considerably. More notably, imports from Türkiye (+693.5%) and Egypt (+507.3%) grew dramatically, while supplies from Morocco (-75.1%) collapsed. This shift, visible in the top import partners data, reflects sourcing adjustments in response to regional production cycles and price competitiveness.

The Net Trade Balance Strengthened Dramatically

As a result of strong export growth and stagnating import values, the EU's trade surplus in olive oil expanded massively. It grew from EUR 1.57 billion in 2015 to EUR 3.75 billion in 2025, an increase of 138.6%. The net import reliance metric became more negative (from -24.7% to -45.7%), confirming the EU's position as a growing net exporter. This strengthening balance underscores the sector's improving competitiveness on the world stage during this period.

II. Production Boom and Structural Market Concentration

Underpinning the trade figures was a remarkable surge in EU olive oil production, which reshaped the market structure and reinforced the dominance of a few key member states.

Production Volumes and Values Reached Record Highs

EU olive oil production experienced extraordinary growth, particularly in the final year of the period. Production quantity increased by 272.5% from 604,549 tonnes in 2015 to 2,252,100 tonnes in 2025. The production value witnessed an even more staggering rise of 746.1%, reaching EUR 13.55 billion in 2025 (Production Volumes). This explosion in output, especially the peak in 2025, is a critical driver of the increased export capacity observed in the same year.

Export Specialization is Highly Concentrated in Mediterranean Producers

The market structure is characterized by extreme specialization among a handful of Mediterranean states. Specialization indices (Specialisation) for 2025 show that Greece (RSCA 0.91), Spain (0.80), and Portugal (0.79) are hyper-specialized exporters, with high Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) scores. Italy is also a major player but with a lower RCA (2.09). Conversely, most other EU members have negligible production and are strong importers, as seen in the negative RSCA scores for Ireland, Poland, and Sweden. In 2025, Spain alone accounted for 52.6% of the EU's production volume, underpinning its role as the largest exporter (top reporters).

Export Diversification Contrasts with Import Concentration

The concentration of trade flows (HHI) reveals an asymmetric structure. Export concentration remained low and stable (HHI ~1,460), reflecting diversified global sales. In contrast, import concentration was significantly higher (HHI ~6,420 in 2025), though it decreased from its 2015 level (Concentration HHI). This indicates that while the EU sells globally, its sourcing of non-EU olive oil is more reliant on a smaller group of suppliers, creating potential vulnerability.

III. Rising Prices, Persistent Volatility, and Evolving Vulnerability

The period was characterized by significant price increases and persistent volatility in both import and export flows, highlighting vulnerabilities in the supply chain.

Prices Accelerated Across All Grades, Especially for Premium Oils

The data shows a clear upward trend in prices for all segments, culminating in a peak in 2024. For exports, the average price per tonne rose from EUR 4,252 in 2015 to EUR 5,753 in 2025 (+35.3%). However, the rise was far more pronounced for the premium "Extra virgin" grade (CN 150920), whose export price surged from an average of EUR 4,774/t in 2022 to a high of EUR 9,565/t in 2024 before retreating slightly in 2025 (Product Segment Breakdown). Import prices followed a similar, though less steep, trajectory. This price inflation reflects tighter global supply conditions and strong demand for high-quality oils.

Supply Partners Exhibit High Volatility, Posing Risks

A Coefficient of Variation analysis of import values reveals high instability in several key supply channels. Imports from traditionally volatile sources like Türkiye (CV 1.04) and Egypt (CV 1.29) were highly erratic, as were newer suppliers like Albania (CV 2.20) and Australia (CV 1.92) (Volatility). This volatility contrasts with the relative stability of major export destinations like the United Kingdom (CV 0.13) and the United States (CV 0.15). Furthermore, detected price supply shocks, such as the abnormal price shift in U.S. imports in 2018, underscore the market's sensitivity to disruptions.

Autonomy Metrics Signal a Deepening Export Orientation

Vulnerability and autonomy indicators paint a nuanced picture. The EU's export propensity (the share of production exported) increased from 25.3% to 41.3%, and trade intensity (the importance of trade relative to production) also grew. Combined with the negative net import reliance, this indicates the EU's olive oil sector has become fundamentally outward-looking. While this reduces vulnerability to import supply shocks, it increases exposure to fluctuations in global demand and competition, a trade-off reflected in the high volatility of export revenues to certain markets.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU olive oil market underwent a profound transformation. Fueled by a massive production increase, particularly in 2025, the EU consolidated its role as the world's leading exporter, with its trade surplus expanding by 138.6%. This growth was channeled through a highly specialized but geographically concentrated production base in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal, while export sales remained well-diversified across global markets.

However, this success was accompanied by significant challenges. The period was marked by pronounced price inflation, especially for premium extra-virgin oil, and high volatility in imports from several key suppliers, exposing the EU's dependence on unstable sources. The market's structure—strong exports, concentrated but volatile imports, and heightened price sensitivity—reveals a sector that is a dominant global player yet remains exposed to the twin risks of supply-side shocks in its sourcing regions and demand-side volatility in its key export markets. The future trajectory will likely depend on how producers manage climate-related yield volatility and navigate increasing global competition.