Market evolution: Extra virgin olive oil (CN 150920) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in extra virgin olive oil (CN 150920) over the period 2015–2025. The product, classified under CN code 150920, refers to extra virgin olive oil obtained solely by mechanical or other physical means without chemical modification — the highest quality grade in the EU classification system. The EU is the world's dominant producer and exporter of olive oil, making its trade dynamics particularly significant for global markets.

The data available spans four complete years (2022–2025), a period marked by severe supply shocks stemming from prolonged drought across the Mediterranean basin, successive heat waves, and significant price inflation. These episodes profoundly reshaped both the EU's trade flows and the geographic structure of its partnerships. The report is organised around three main findings: the EU's surging export values driven by price rather than volume; the diversification and growing volatility of the EU's import supply base; and the evolving structure of the EU as a dominant exporter with an increasingly global customer footprint.

1. Rising Export Values Mask a Stagnant Volume Base

1.1 The EU remains a structural net exporter of extra virgin olive oil

The EU consistently runs a large trade surplus in extra virgin olive oil. Over the available data window, the balance ranged from €2.19 billion to €3.27 billion, rising by 25.0% from 2022 to 2025. This confirms the EU's role as a price-setting supplier to the rest of the world. The net import reliance remained deeply negative throughout (from −30.4% to −38.9%), meaning that exports substantially exceed imports — a sign of structural competitive advantage rather than dependency.

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.2 Price inflation, not volume growth, drove export revenue

The most striking feature of the 2022–2025 period is the divergence between export value (+27.3%) and export volume (−3.3%). The average unit export price surged from €4,774/t to €6,281/t, peaking at an extraordinary €9,565/t during the data window. This price trajectory reflects the severe production shortfall caused by drought conditions across Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal — the EU's principal producing member states. EU olive oil production volume fell from a peak of 3.47 billion kg to 1.80 billion kg (−12.2% change over the window, and likely much more from earlier highs). Meanwhile, production value jumped by 51.8%, reaching €10.85 billion — confirming the extraordinary price inflation that rippled through the entire supply chain.

1.3 Spain and Italy dominate, but smaller exporters are gaining share

The EU's export trade is overwhelmingly concentrated in four Mediterranean member states, though their relative positions are shifting:

Source: Top Reporters — Exports

Spain remains the largest exporter by far, but Italy (+34.0%), Greece (+39.1%), and France (+96.4%) grew faster, suggesting a degree of diversification within the EU's own export base. The specialisation data confirms this geography: Greece (RCA 24.7), Portugal (8.6), Spain (8.4), and Italy (2.4) display strong comparative advantages, while non-producing members such as Ireland, Romania, and Sweden show negligible or negative specialisation.

2. Import Diversification Accompanies Rising Sourcing Costs

2.1 Imports grew faster than exports, though from a much smaller base

EU imports of extra virgin olive oil rose from €399 million to €561 million (+40.6%) in value and from 105,426 t to 135,866 t (+28.9%) in volume. The average import price increased from €3,783/t to €4,128/t (+9.1%) — a more modest rise than for exports, reflecting the different geographic and quality composition of import flows.

Source: General Overview — Trade

2.2 Tunisia remains the dominant supplier, but Southern Cone and Egyptian imports are surging

The partner breakdown reveals a significant diversification of the EU's import base away from its historical over-reliance on Tunisia:

Source: Top Partners — Imports

Tunisia remains the single largest origin, accounting for the bulk of third-country imports and growing by 27.5% in value. However, the most dramatic shifts are the emergence of Chile (from €0.8M to €22.8M), Argentina (from €7.1M to €20.6M), and especially Egypt (from €11K to €17.1M). These Southern Cone and North African origins are filling the supply gap left by EU domestic production shortfalls. The import concentration index (HHI) declined from 8,394 to 6,945 (−17.3%), confirming that imports are becoming less geographically concentrated — a development that improves supply resilience but introduces new quality and regulatory challenges.

2.3 Spain and Italy are the EU's main import gateways

Within the EU, the member states recording the largest import values are also the largest producers — a pattern consistent with the blending and re-export model:

Source: Top Reporters — Imports

The near-complete transformation of Portugal's import profile (from under €10,000 to €18.9 million) is particularly noteworthy, likely reflecting both increased domestic consumption and the country's growing role as a processing and re-export hub. Belgium and Germany's rising imports also point to increasing olive oil penetration in Northern European consumer markets.

3. The EU's Global Customer Base Is Deepening and Diversifying

3.1 The United States remains the largest single destination, but East Asian markets are expanding rapidly

The export partner data shows the EU's exports reaching a wide array of non-EU markets, with significant divergences in growth trajectories:

Source: Top Partners — Exports

The United States absorbed €1.17 billion in EU extra virgin olive oil in 2025 — more than one-third of all extra-EU exports — growing 21.5% despite already being the dominant market. The most dynamic growth, however, came from South Korea (doubling to €216 million) and the United Kingdom (+40.5%), which likely reflects post-Brexit trade realignment and growing consumer awareness of premium olive oil in East Asia.

China is the notable exception, with exports declining by 15.7% from €144 million to €121 million. This may reflect both the impact of China's economic slowdown on premium food imports and increasing competition from domestic or alternative-origin oils.

3.2 Export concentration remains low, indicating a well-diversified customer portfolio

The export HHI stood at approximately 1,476 in 2025, down 7.7% from 2022, and remained well below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with moderate concentration. This contrasts sharply with the import HHI of 6,945, underscoring that while the EU sources from a relatively narrow base (dominated by Tunisia), it sells to a broadly diversified set of global markets.

The trade intensity rose from 31.0% to 46.2% (+49.0%), and export propensity increased from 27.8% to 39.8% (+43.0%). Both metrics point to the EU becoming more globally integrated in this sector — a structural trend that amplifies both revenue opportunities and exposure to external demand shocks.

3.3 Import volatility is elevated among emerging suppliers, while key export markets remain stable

The coefficient of variation (CV) reveals a sharp contrast in trade flow stability between imports and exports:

Import partner volatility (selected):

Export partner volatility (selected):

Source: Volatility

Tunisia, the EU's primary import source, maintains remarkably low volatility (CV of 0.141), making it a relatively predictable supplier. However, the newer and growing import origins — Egypt (0.865), Türkiye (0.973), Albania (1.540) — display much higher variability, suggesting that their recent growth may be episodic rather than structural. On the export side, the EU's major customers are stable: the United Kingdom (0.040), United States (0.115), and Japan (0.189) all show low-to-moderate volatility, providing a solid demand foundation.

Conclusion

The 2022–2025 period for EU trade in extra virgin olive oil has been defined by a paradox: soaring revenues alongside declining volumes. The EU's export value reached €3.47 billion in 2025 despite a 3.3% contraction in quantity shipped, entirely driven by a 31.6% unit price increase rooted in severe Mediterranean production shortfalls. Total EU production fell to 1.80 billion kg while production value surged to €10.85 billion, illustrating how supply scarcity translated into price inflation across the global olive oil market.

The EU remains overwhelmingly a net exporter, with a trade surplus of €2.91 billion and a negative net import reliance of −38.9%. Its export portfolio is well diversified (HHI ~1,476) and anchored by stable Western markets — the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada. South Korea's doubling to €216 million signals promising East Asian demand growth, though China's 15.7% decline warrants attention.

On the import side, the EU is diversifying away from its traditional Tunisian dependency, with Chile, Argentina, and Egypt emerging as significant new suppliers. However, these newer sources exhibit considerably higher trade volatility, raising questions about the long-term reliability of these supply channels. The declining import HHI (from 8,394 to 6,945) is a positive development for supply resilience, but it comes at the cost of greater exposure to politically and climatically fragile origins.

Looking forward, the key risks centre on the sustainability of production in drought-prone Mediterranean regions, the capacity of non-traditional suppliers to scale reliably, and the potential for demand erosion in price-sensitive markets such as China if high prices persist. The EU's olive oil sector, deeply specialised in Mediterranean Europe and globally competitive, faces a decade where climate adaptation will likely be as consequential as market access in shaping its trade trajectory.