Market evolution: Olive oil (CN 150990) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in olive oil classified under CN code 150990 (EU categories 4 and 5) from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the EU consolidated its position as a dominant net exporter, experiencing significant growth in export value and a pronounced shift in the composition and geography of its trade flows. The period was characterized by rising unit values despite declining production volumes, increased market concentration in key export destinations, and notable volatility in supply chains. The analysis is structured around three core findings: the strengthening of the EU's net export position, the evolving structure of trade partnerships, and the underlying market dynamics related to risk and self-sufficiency.

1. The EU's Strengthening Trade Balance Amidst Evolving Production Economics

The decade saw the EU significantly expand its trade surplus for olive oil, driven by robust export growth that outpaced a modest decline in imports. Simultaneously, EU production volumes fell while their estimated value soared, indicating a period of significant price appreciation and potential structural shifts in the domestic industry.

1.1 Robust Export Growth Secures a Widening Trade Surplus

EU exports of olive oil (CN 150990) demonstrated strong growth, with the total value increasing by 42.0% from €623.0 million in 2015 to €884.4 million in 2025. Export volume grew by 16.7%, reaching 196,859 tonnes by 2025. In contrast, import value declined by 9.1% (from €42.1m to €38.3m), and import volume fell by 19.9% (to 11,127 tonnes). This combination resulted in the EU's trade balance (value) growing by 45.7%, from €580.9 million to €846.1 million over the period, solidifying the EU's role as a major net exporter. (General Overview)

1.2 Declining Production Volumes Contrasted with Soaring Values

A key domestic dynamic was the divergence between production quantity and value. EU olive oil production volume declined by 25.6% over the period, from 604.5 million kg in 2015 to 450.0 million kg in 2025. Despite this significant drop in output, the estimated production value increased by 68.6%, from €1.60 billion to €2.70 billion. This stark contrast points to a sustained period of high olive oil prices, likely driven by factors such as poor harvests in major producing regions (e.g., due to weather events) and strong global demand, which buoyed the value of a shrinking pool of production. (Market Structure - Production)

2. Shifting Geographies: Concentration in Exports and Volatility in Imports

The pattern of trade partnerships evolved substantially. Export markets became more concentrated around a few key partners, particularly the United States, while import sources, though still led by Tunisia, showed high volatility and emerging new suppliers.

2.1 Export Dominance by the US and UK with Rising Concentration

The United States and the United Kingdom were the undisputed top destinations for EU olive oil exports, together accounting for a major share of the total. Exports to the US grew by 52.1% (to €334.1m), while those to the UK grew by 50.3% (to €88.8m). Other significant markets like Australia (+89.2%) and Canada (+67.8%) also saw substantial growth. This growth was accompanied by a slight increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value, rising from 1,504 in 2015 to 1,678 in 2025, indicating a modestly more concentrated export structure. (General Overview - Top Partners)

2.2 Highly Volatile Import Chains from the Mediterranean Basin

The EU's import side was characterized by high volatility. Tunisia remained the largest supplier, though its share fell (value down 16.6% to €26.5m). Imports from other Mediterranean partners were extremely unstable: Syria showed a massive percentage increase (870%), from a very low base, while shipments from the Occupied Palestinian Territory collapsed by 93.9%. The coefficient of variation (CV) for import value was markedly higher than for exports across most partners, with Syria (CV: 1.63) and Mexico (CV: 3.29) showing extreme volatility. This underscores the vulnerability and supply uncertainty of the EU's import channels. (Volatility & Shocks)

3. Structural Resilience and Inherent Market Vulnerabilities

While the EU exhibits strong export capacity and specialisation, the market structure reveals vulnerabilities related to trade intensity and external price shocks, though the high degree of specialisation among key producers provides a foundation for resilience.

3.1 High Specialisation of Mediterranean Producers Anchors the Sector

The EU's olive oil export sector is anchored by member states with a high degree of revealed comparative advantage. In 2025, Spain (RCA: 12.42), Greece (10.79), and Portugal (5.16) showed strong specialisation, with the top three producers accounting for over 71.9% of total EU production in the category. This concentration of know-how and production in geographically suitable regions underpins the EU's export competitiveness. (Market Structure - Specialisation)

3.2 High Export Propensity Highlights Dependency on Global Markets

Despite being a net exporter, the EU sector is deeply integrated into global markets. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) was the most salient metric, rising from 25.3% in 2015 to 47.3% in 2025. Trade intensity (the combined share of exports and imports in apparent consumption) also increased to 48.6%. This high outward orientation means EU producers are significantly exposed to international demand fluctuations and competition. (Autonomy & Vulnerability)

3.3 Price Shocks and Supply Chain Disruptions as Recurring Features

The period was not without price shocks, though their large-scale impact was limited. The most significant detected event was a massive price shock for Colombian imports in 2020 (abnormality: 6,530), albeit from a negligible base. More impactful was a price shock for Guatemalan exports in 2023 (abnormality: 1,416, shift: +54.9%), which accounted for 0.3% of export value. These events highlight the inherent volatility in commodity markets and the potential for localized supply disruptions to affect prices. (Volatility & Shocks)

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's olive oil (CN 150990) market evolved into a more consolidated and valuable export-oriented sector. The key dynamics were the expansion of a positive trade balance powered by growth in high-value exports to stable markets like the US and UK, coupled with a domestic production environment where falling volumes were offset by sharply rising values. This period was marked by a clear division between the stable, concentrated export side and the volatile, less predictable import side. The sector's strength lies in the specialisation of its core Mediterranean producers, but its high export propensity exposes it to global market shifts. The future trajectory will depend on the balance between sustaining competitive production in the face of climatic challenges and managing the vulnerabilities inherent in a globally integrated agricultural commodity market.