Market evolution: Fish and marine mammal oils (CN 1504) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 1504 covers fats and oils of fish or marine mammals, whether or not refined but excluding chemically modified products. This heading bundles three sub-categories: fish-liver oils (150410), other fish oils (150420), and marine mammal oils (150430). The product is of high strategic importance for the aquaculture and nutraceutical sectors, with omega-3 rich fish oils serving as a critical input for salmon farming and dietary supplements.

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in CN 1504 underwent a profound transformation. Total export value more than doubled from €271 million to €563 million, while import value grew from €293 million to €509 million, turning a modest trade deficit of €22 million into a surplus of €53 million (trade overview). This shift was driven by a combination of sustained volume growth, an extraordinary price surge in 2022–2024, and a geographic reorientation of trade flows.

1. A structural reversal: the EU shifts from net importer to net exporter

The most consequential development over the decade is the EU's transition from net import dependence to a position of net export surplus. This section examines the scale and mechanics of that shift.

The trade balance swung by over €75 million between 2015 and 2025

In 2015, the EU ran a trade deficit of approximately €22 million on CN 1504, with imports (€293 million) exceeding exports (€271 million). By 2025, the position had reversed entirely: exports reached €563 million against imports of €509 million, yielding a surplus of €53 million (trade overview). The net import reliance indicator confirms this structural change, falling from +15.6% in 2015 to −7.7% in 2025 (net import reliance).

However, the path was not linear. Net import reliance peaked at nearly 70% at some point during the period — likely in 2022 or 2023, when import values surged to a maximum of €706 million — before the export surge brought the indicator decisively into negative territory.

Export volume growth outpaced imports, but both flows expanded strongly

Source: trade overview

Export quantities grew more than import quantities in relative terms (+35.8% vs. +21.9%), but the real divergence was in value: exports nearly doubled in value while the import bill grew by 74%. The gap is largely explained by unit values, which rose faster for exports than for imports (discussed in Section 2).

EU production remained volume-stable while its value soared

EU domestic production of CN 1504 was remarkably stable in volume terms, moving from approximately 156 million kg to 160 million kg over the period (+2.4%). In value terms, however, production surged from €82 million to €560 million (+585.6%), reflecting the same price dynamics observed in trade (production volumes). This indicates that EU producers were major beneficiaries of the global fish oil price boom, even without significantly expanding physical output.

Export propensity surpassed 100%, signalling the EU's role as a processing hub

By 2025, the EU's export propensity had reached 116.3%, up from 81.2% in 2015 (export propensity). An export propensity above 100% means the EU exported more fish oil than it domestically produced, confirming its role as a significant processor and re-exporter of imported crude fish oils. Trade intensity also rose, from 90.6% to 107.8% (trade intensity), indicating that the sector became ever more integrated into global value chains.

2. The great price surge: unit values drove value growth far beyond volume

A defining feature of the 2015–2025 period is the extraordinary divergence between physical trade volumes and trade values, caused by a dramatic run-up in fish oil prices that peaked in 2024 before correcting sharply in 2025.

Fish oil prices were broadly stable from 2015 to 2021, then surged

The sub-product 150420 (non-liver fish oils), which accounts for over 95% of trade by volume, illustrates the pattern clearly:

Source: product segment breakdown

Between 2015 and 2021, import prices for fish oils fluctuated narrowly between €1,436 and €1,664 per tonne. The inflection point came in 2022, when prices jumped by roughly 48% to €2,462/t, and then surged further to €3,824/t in 2023 and €4,099/t in 2024. This represents a near-tripling of import unit values in just three years.

Export prices followed a similar but slightly amplified trajectory, rising from €1,807/t in 2021 to €4,814/t in 2024 — a 166% increase — before correcting to €3,127/t in 2025.

The 2022–2024 price spike likely reflects global supply disruptions and structural demand growth

The price dynamics are consistent with several known factors in the global fish oil market:

• Peruvian anchovy supply disruptions: Peru is the world's largest producer of fish oil from anchoveta. Closures or reductions of fishing quotas due to El Niño events severely constrained global supply in 2022–2023. EU imports from Peru swung dramatically, with import value from Peru ranging from a minimum of €18.3 million to a maximum of €133.2 million over the period (top import partners).
• Growing aquaculture demand: Norwegian salmon farming, the single largest consumer of fish oil globally, continued to expand, driving competition for limited supply. EU exports to Norway surged from €163 million to €397 million (+143%), reflecting this demand pull (top export partners).
• General commodity inflation in 2022, linked to the energy price shock and post-pandemic supply chain pressures, amplified the effect.

The 2025 correction suggests partial supply normalisation

By 2025, import prices for 150420 had fallen back to €2,305/t — a 44% decline from the 2024 peak — and export prices corrected to €3,127/t (−35%). While this likely reflects improved Peruvian anchovy catches and some demand moderation, prices remained well above the 2015–2021 baseline, suggesting that structural factors (growing aquaculture demand, sustainability-driven supply constraints) continue to support a higher price floor.

Fish-liver oils (150410) and marine mammal oils (150430) are niche but volatile segments

Fish-liver oils (150410) command significantly higher unit values due to their vitamin and nutraceutical content. Import prices for 150410 ranged from €3,768/t (2021) to €11,895/t (2024), while export prices reached as high as €15,992/t (2018) and €12,687/t (2024). Import volumes for this sub-product grew from 2,496 tonnes in 2015 to 3,309 tonnes in 2025, but with considerable year-to-year fluctuation.

Marine mammal oils (150430) remain negligible in volume (under 200 tonnes per year for imports; under 161 tonnes for exports), with highly erratic pricing — import prices spiked to €26,518/t in 2021 and export prices to €97,000/t the same year — consistent with sporadic, small-lot trade in specialised products.

3. Geographic concentration and the Denmark–Norway axis

The geographic structure of EU fish oil trade reveals a clear hub-and-spoke model centred on Denmark, with Norway as the dominant export destination and an increasingly diversified import base.

Denmark is the undisputed EU hub for fish oil processing and trade

Denmark accounted for the largest share of both EU imports and exports of CN 1504 in both 2015 and 2025:

Source: top reporters

Denmark's dominant position reflects the presence of a large fish oil refining industry that imports crude oils from global suppliers and re-exports refined products, primarily to Norway's aquaculture sector. Denmark alone accounted for roughly 68% of EU fish oil exports in 2025 (€384 million of €563 million total).

Several other Member States showed rapid growth from a lower base. Spain's imports surged by 412%, Belgium's exports by 794%, and Germany more than tripled its exports (from €4.2 million to €15.1 million). This suggests that the fish oil processing and trading landscape within the EU, while still Denmark-centric, is gradually broadening.

Norway is the overwhelmingly dominant partner on both sides of the trade

Norway occupies a unique position as the EU's single largest trade partner for fish oils, both as an import source and as an export destination:

Source: top partners and volatility

Exports to Norway surged by 143%, from €163 million to €397 million, making Norway the destination for over 70% of EU fish oil exports by value in 2025. Norway's low coefficient of variation (0.130 for exports, 0.176 for imports) confirms the structural, long-term nature of this trade corridor — driven by Norway's salmon and trout aquaculture industry, the world's largest.

Imports from Norway also grew substantially (+64% to €99 million), reflecting Norway's own significant fish oil production from its wild-catch fisheries.

The export side is highly concentrated while imports have diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) tells a contrasting story for imports and exports:

Source: concentration

Import concentration fell sharply, from an HHI of 1,755 to 1,116, indicating meaningful diversification of supply sources. Chile (+362% growth to €49 million), Morocco (+28% to €41 million), and several smaller suppliers expanded their presence alongside the established partners Norway and Peru. This diversification reduces the EU's vulnerability to supply disruptions from any single origin.

By contrast, export concentration increased, with the HHI rising from 4,262 to 5,132. This reflects the growing dominance of the Norway-bound export flow. Newer but smaller export markets — Iceland (from €33 thousand to €29 million), the Faroe Islands (+110% to €11 million), the United States (+709% to €11 million), and Chile (from €45 thousand to €6.3 million) — emerged but remain modest relative to the Norway trade (top export partners).

Import-side volatility varies widely by supplier

The coefficient of variation across import partners ranges from very low (Norway: 0.176) to very high (Oman: 0.830, Panama: 0.726, Mexico: 0.685), reflecting the varying reliability and scale of different supply sources (volatility). The major South American suppliers — Peru (CV 0.533) and Chile (CV 0.601) — show moderate-to-high volatility, consistent with the sensitivity of their anchoveta fisheries to El Niño/La Niña cycles and quota decisions.

Notable supply shock events include a price spike in imports from the United States in 2022 (abnormality score of 818, shift of +160%), and an extreme price anomaly for Argentina in 2021 (abnormality of 4,337, shift of +2,567%), though the latter represented a negligible share of total trade value (supply shocks).

Conclusion

The EU trade market for fish and marine mammal oils (CN 1504) underwent a profound structural transformation over 2015–2025. Three defining dynamics shaped the decade:

1. The shift from net importer to net exporter. The EU moved from a €22 million trade deficit to a €53 million surplus, driven by Denmark's expanding role as a global fish oil processing and re-export hub. Export propensity exceeded 100% by 2025, confirming that the EU processes more fish oil than its own production alone would support.

2. The 2022–2024 price surge reshaped the economics of the sector. Unit values for fish oils roughly tripled between 2021 and 2024, driven by constrained global supply (particularly Peruvian anchoveta) and growing aquaculture demand. While prices corrected sharply in 2025, they remained well above pre-2022 levels, benefiting EU producers whose output volumes were essentially flat but whose revenues grew nearly sevenfold.

3. Export dependence on Norway deepened even as imports diversified. The EU's export concentration on Norway intensified (HHI rising from 4,262 to 5,132), reflecting the structural link between EU fish oil refiners and Norway's salmon aquaculture industry. On the import side, the EU successfully diversified its supply base (HHI falling from 1,755 to 1,116), reducing exposure to any single origin. This asymmetry — diversified inputs, concentrated outputs — creates efficiency but also a strategic vulnerability: any disruption to the Norway trade corridor would have outsized consequences for EU fish oil exporters.

Looking ahead, the key variables to watch are Peruvian anchovy quota decisions, the pace of aquaculture expansion in Norway and beyond, the sustainability-driven shift towards alternative omega-3 sources (e.g., algal oils), and whether the 2025 price correction signals a lasting normalisation or merely a temporary pause in an upward trend.