Market evolution: Rendered pig and poultry fat (CN 1501) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 1501 covers rendered pig fat (including lard) and poultry fat, a commodity group used extensively in the food, feed, oleochemical and biofuel industries. Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in this product underwent a dramatic structural transformation: the Union shifted from being a comfortable net exporter—posting a trade surplus of €36.5 million in 2015—to near-balance, ending 2025 with a small deficit of €7.9 million. This was driven by a surge in imports whose value grew by over 900 %, while export volumes contracted despite rising prices. Domestic production also expanded significantly in both volume (+11.4 %) and especially value (+236.4 %), reflecting the broader post-2020 commodity price environment. This report analyses the main dynamics behind these shifts.

General overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. The Import Surge: From Marginal Inflows to a €71 Million Market

1.1. Import volumes increased more than fivefold

EU extra-EU imports of CN 1501 grew from 13,296 tonnes (€7.1 million) in 2015 to 72,528 tonnes (€71.1 million) in 2025, representing volume and value increases of 445.5 % and 904.9 % respectively. This is by far the most striking trend in the entire dataset. Imports were relatively stable at low levels through 2015–2018 (8,500–13,300 t/year) before accelerating sharply from 2020 onward.

The step-change in 2020–2021 is particularly notable: import volumes more than doubled in a single year, suggesting a structural shift rather than a cyclical fluctuation.

1.2. Poultry fat is the dominant import category

Breaking imports down by sub-heading reveals that the surge was overwhelmingly concentrated in poultry fat (CN 150190). In 2025, poultry fat accounted for 54,454 of the 72,528 tonnes imported (75.1 %), up from only 6,973 tonnes in 2015. Pig fat other than lard (CN 150120) also grew notably—from 4,624 t to 11,562 t—while lard imports (CN 150110) remained volatile but roughly stable around 6,500 tonnes.

The unit price of imported poultry fat reached €1,114/t in 2022, the highest point in the series, before easing to €1,031/t in 2025.

1.3. Ukraine and the United Kingdom became the two dominant suppliers

The geographic origin of imports shifted dramatically. Ukraine went from a negligible supplier (€0.9 million in 2015) to the single largest source of EU imports at €30.4 million in 2025—a 3,160 % increase in value. The United Kingdom likewise grew from €4.8 million to €30.4 million (+540 %), largely reflecting post-Brexit trade reclassification and continued supply-chain integration. Together these two partners accounted for approximately 85 % of EU import value in 2025.

Ukraine's explosive growth likely reflects the country's expanding poultry sector and preferential trade arrangements with the EU. The UK's strong position reflects both re-exports and continued integration of UK-based rendering operations with EU supply chains post-Brexit.

Import partners on the Trade Dashboard

1.4. The Netherlands and Poland are the main EU entry points

On the reporter (Member State) side, the Netherlands became the largest EU importer by value, growing from €1.9 million to €28.5 million (+1,387 %). Poland followed at €16.8 million (up from €0.9 million). Czechia saw the most explosive relative growth: from just €12 thousand to €5.4 million. Italy and Spain also recorded strong growth.

The concentration of imports in the Netherlands and Poland is consistent with their roles as major EU meat-processing hubs with extensive logistics infrastructure.

Import reporters on the Trade Dashboard

2. Export Erosion: Declining Volumes Offset by Rising Prices

2.1. Export volumes fell by a fifth despite value gains

EU exports of CN 1501 to non-EU countries declined from 47,725 tonnes in 2015 to 37,687 tonnes in 2025 (−21.0 %). Yet the total export value rose from €43.6 million to €63.2 million (+44.9 %), because unit export prices climbed steeply—from €914/t to €1,677/t (+83.4 %). The peak price was reached in 2022 at €1,963/t, coinciding with the global commodity price spike.

The volume decline was gradual up to 2019 and then accelerated from 2021, suggesting that the simultaneous import surge was substituting for some previously domestic-origin exports, or that competitive dynamics changed.

2.2. Lard is the main export product; poultry fat exports are shrinking

Lard (CN 150110) was the largest export sub-category throughout the period, reaching 17,129 tonnes and €28.6 million in 2025. However, its volume peaked at 25,005 tonnes in 2021 and has since retreated. Poultry fat exports (CN 150190) fell more sharply: from 20,418 tonnes in 2015 to 11,715 tonnes in 2025 (−43 %), suggesting that the EU's poultry-fat surplus was absorbed by growing domestic demand or redirected into intra-EU trade.

Export unit values for all three sub-categories roughly doubled over the period, most dramatically for pig fat (from €707/t to €1,278/t).

2.3. The United Kingdom remains the anchor export destination

The UK absorbed €34.4 million of EU exports in 2025 (54.4 % of total), up from €24.0 million in 2015. This makes the UK by far the most important single partner, and its low volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.15) underscores the stability of this trade relationship. Other significant destinations include Switzerland (€5.4 M, up from €1.3 M), Serbia (€3.5 M), Taiwan (€2.8 M) and Hong Kong (€2.6 M).

Export partners on the Trade Dashboard

2.4. A notable price shock was detected in exports to Hong Kong in 2022

Among the supply-shock events flagged in the data, the most significant was a price shock in EU exports to Hong Kong in 2022, with an abnormality score of 9.0 and a year-on-year price shift of +63.8 %. This coincides with the broader 2022 global energy and food-commodity price spike and with supply-chain disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine.

3. Domestic Production Expands and Market Structure Realigns

3.1. EU production grew in volume and especially in value

EU domestic production volumes rose from 1,064 million kg in 2015 to 1,185 million kg in 2025 (+11.4 %), with a peak of 1,897 million kg recorded in 2022. Production value expanded far more dramatically, from €428 million to €1,440 million (+236.4 %), peaking at €1,689 million in 2022. The gap between volume and value growth reflects the steep rise in unit production values driven by input costs and global commodity prices.

3.2. Five Member States dominate production and export specialisation

Specialisation analysis (RSCA) for 2025 reveals a clear hierarchy. Denmark, France and Poland have the strongest revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 2), while Germany, despite being the largest producer by volume (30.9 % of EU production), shows only moderate specialisation (RCA of 1.46) due to the breadth of its overall export basket.

Ireland (RSCA −0.995), Latvia, Luxembourg, Greece and Estonia are the least specialised, with negligible export shares in this product.

3.3. The EU crossed from net exporter to near net-import status

Perhaps the single most consequential structural shift is the collapse of the EU's net-export position. The net import reliance indicator moved from −6.25 % in 2015 (indicating net exports) to −1.38 % in 2025, a 78 % change toward zero. In other words, the EU's export surplus over extra-EU trade shrank from a meaningful margin to near-zero. The trade balance itself flipped from +€36.5 million in 2015 to −€7.9 million in 2025.

Export propensity—the share of domestic production that is exported—fell by 28.5 %, meaning the EU is retaining a larger share of its output domestically even as production grows. Meanwhile trade intensity (total extra-EU trade relative to production) rose slightly, confirming that the import side is the driver of increased openness.

3.4. Import concentration decreased; export concentration remained stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 4,845 to 3,736 (−22.9 % by value), indicating that the EU has diversified its import sources even as total imports surged. The export HHI was virtually unchanged (from 3,214 to 3,158), reflecting the continued dominance of the UK market.

The drop in import concentration is explained by the rise of Ukraine and Switzerland as meaningful suppliers alongside the UK, reducing dependency on any single source. However, the persistence of two dominant import partners (Ukraine and the UK together accounting for ~85 % of imports) means concentration remains moderate-to-high in absolute terms.

Concentration analysis on the Trade Dashboard

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in rendered pig and poultry fat underwent a fundamental rebalancing. The Union moved from being a clear net exporter with a €36.5 million surplus to near-parity, closing 2025 with a small €7.9 million deficit. This was driven primarily by a fivefold increase in import volumes—concentrated in poultry fat (CN 150190) and sourced mainly from Ukraine and the United Kingdom—while export volumes contracted by a fifth. Rising global commodity prices amplified the value dimension of both trends, pushing unit values up by roughly 80–84 % on both the import and export sides.

EU domestic production expanded modestly in volume (+11 %) but surged in value (+236 %), reflecting the post-2020 inflationary environment. The five largest producing Member States (Germany, France, Poland, Italy and the Netherlands) accounted for the bulk of output, while Denmark, France and Poland showed the strongest export specialisation. Import concentration decreased as new suppliers emerged, but two partners—Ukraine and the UK—now dominate inflows, introducing a degree of geographic concentration risk.

Looking ahead, the near-zero net trade position, the decline in export propensity and the heavy reliance on Ukraine (a country with well-known geopolitical risks) and the UK (whose post-Brexit trade arrangements continue to evolve) suggest that the EU's autonomy in this segment is more fragile than the headline production figures might imply. The 2022 price shock in the Hong Kong export market serves as a reminder that volatility remains a feature of this market, even as the most critical structural shift—the swing from net exporter to near net-importer—is the defining story of the decade.