Market evolution: Sunflower seed oil (CN 1512) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in sunflower-seed, safflower, and cotton-seed oil (CN 1512) over the period 2015–2025. The product category includes crude and refined sunflower-seed and safflower oil, as well as cotton-seed oil and their fractions (subheadings 151211, 151219, 151221, and 151229).

The period under review spans a decade of significant transformation. The EU has shifted from a position of near self-sufficiency to one of deepening import dependence. Total import values increased by 279.8% (from €716 million in 2015 to €2.72 billion in 2025), while the trade deficit widened by over 900%. Meanwhile, EU domestic production surged by 370.3% in quantity and 505.3% in value over the same period. These dramatic shifts have been shaped by evolving consumption patterns, geopolitical disruptions—notably Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022—and a restructuring of global supply chains.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The EU's Structural Shift Toward Import Dependence

The trade balance reversed decisively over the decade

In 2015, the EU ran a modest trade deficit of €186 million on CN 1512. By 2025, that deficit had ballooned to €1.86 billion—a deterioration of over 900%. The net import reliance metric, which stood at -11.0% in 2015 (indicating a slight export surplus on a net basis), swung to +26.0% in 2025, confirming the EU's structural transition to a net importing position.

Source: Trade overview

Import volumes grew nearly three times faster than export volumes

While EU exports of CN 1512 rose by 19.4% in quantity over the period, import volumes surged by 166.8%—growing nearly nine times faster in proportional terms. The gap between imports and exports widened progressively: in 2015, imports were approximately 1.6 times larger than exports in volume terms; by 2025, they were 3.6 times larger.

Price inflation amplified the value shift beyond volume changes

Unit prices for both imports and exports increased substantially over the decade. Import prices rose by 42.3% (from €805/t to €1,146/t), and export prices increased by 35.7% (from €960/t to €1,303/t). The most extreme price spikes occurred in 2022, when import prices peaked at €1,474/t and export prices at €1,662/t. This inflation meant that the value-side deterioration of the trade balance (280% growth in import values) exceeded the volume-side deterioration (167% growth in import quantities).

Crude sunflower-seed oil is the dominant product driving these trends

Breaking down the import data by subheading reveals that crude sunflower-seed or safflower oil (151211) accounts for the vast majority of trade flows. In 2025, subheading 151211 represented 2,036,149 tonnes (85.7% of total import volume) and €2.28 billion (83.9% of total import value) of EU imports. The refined counterpart (151219) contributed an additional 336,138 tonnes and €434 million. Cotton-seed oil products (151221 and 151229) remain marginal, with combined import volumes of only around 2,200 tonnes in 2025.

Source: Product segment breakdown

2. Ukraine's Rise as Dominant Supplier and the 2022 Supply Shock

Ukraine became the overwhelmingly dominant import partner

Among non-EU partners, Ukraine's share of EU imports grew from a strong starting position to near-total dominance. In 2015, Ukraine supplied €487 million of CN 1512 to the EU; by 2025, that figure had risen to €2.50 billion—an increase of 413.5%. Ukraine's import value peaked at €2.62 billion in 2022, the year of the full-scale Russian invasion. Ukraine's share of the top-7 import partners' combined value increased from 61.5% in 2015 to 91.9% in 2025.

Source: Top import partners

The 2022 war triggered a dramatic price shock

The data reveals a clear shock event centered on 2021 (capturing the beginning of the crisis that intensified in 2022). Ukraine's import price shock registered an abnormality score of 12.5 with a 62.8% year-on-year price increase, and its value share reached 100% of the shock's impact. Import prices for crude sunflower-seed oil (151211) rose from €675/t in 2019 to €1,111/t in 2021 and peaked at €1,405/t in 2022. On the export side, price shocks were detected in exports to India (abnormality: 248.3, +64.4% shift) and Iraq (abnormality: 68.6, +79.2% shift), both centered on 2021.

Source: Supply shocks

Russia's role collapsed following sanctions

Russian imports of CN 1512 to the EU fell by 94.9% over the period, from €13 million in 2015 to just €657,114 in 2025. Russian import flows had peaked at €105 million in an intermediate year before declining sharply, consistent with the EU sanctions regime imposed following 2022. Russia also exhibits the highest import volatility among all partners, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.22, confirming the instability of this trade relationship.

Import concentration increased sharply, heightening supply-chain risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose by 74.5%, from 4,853 in 2015 to 8,467 in 2025 (peaking at 8,804). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market; the current level signals extreme dependence on a single supplier country. By contrast, export concentration fell by 32.0% (HHI from 1,356 to 922), suggesting that EU exports are diversified across more numerous and more balanced destination markets.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

3. EU Production Expansion and Internal Market Reconfiguration

Domestic production grew far more rapidly than trade volumes

EU production of sunflower-seed oil increased from 2.02 billion kg in 2015 to 9.49 billion kg in 2025—a growth of 370.3%. In value terms, production rose from €1.44 billion to €8.73 billion (+505.3%), peaking at €12.03 billion in 2022 during the oil price spike. This production growth substantially outpaced the 19.4% increase in export volumes, indicating that the expanded output was largely absorbed by the EU's growing internal consumption and re-export activities.

Source: Production volumes

Central and Eastern European member states dominate EU processing

The most specialised EU producers of CN 1512 are located in Central and Eastern Europe. In 2025, the top five specialised member states by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) were:

Source: Specialisation

Bulgaria and Hungary combine high specialisation with substantial production shares, while the Netherlands acts as a major processing and re-export hub (20.8% of production, 14.5% of trade). Notably, some EU member states show virtually no specialisation (Ireland, Finland, Denmark), consistent with limited domestic oilseed crushing capacity.

EU importers and exporters are geographically distinct

Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland, and France are the largest EU importers of CN 1512 from outside the bloc. Spain's imports grew by 318.9% (from €165M to €690M), and Poland's imports surged by 1,159.3% (from €10M to €125M). Bulgaria and Slovenia registered the most extreme growth rates in import values (7,798% and 7,669% respectively), though from very small bases.

On the export side, Bulgaria leads with €232M in 2025 (up 209%), followed by France (€125M), Spain (€133M), and the Netherlands (€106M). The United Kingdom remained the largest non-EU export destination throughout the period, absorbing €213 million in 2025 (+27.0% over 2015). Exports to Türkiye surged by 396.9% (from €12M to €59M), and exports to India grew from a negligible base by 1,251%, though they remain volatile (CV of 1.78).

Source: Top EU reporter countries

Trade intensity surged, reflecting the product's growing embeddedness in global flows

The EU's trade intensity for CN 1512 rose from 11.3% in 2015 to 46.3% in 2025—an increase of 309.8%. This indicator, which measures the share of trade relative to domestic production plus imports, confirms that the EU's sunflower oil market has become far more internationally integrated over the decade. The export propensity also increased, from 10.6% to 17.8%, but at a far more moderate pace (+67.1%). Trade intensity was identified as the most salient vulnerability indicator, with a salience score of 313.5, far exceeding export propensity (99.3).

Conclusion

The EU's sunflower seed oil market has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. What began as a nearly balanced trade position has evolved into one of deepening import dependence, with the trade deficit expanding tenfold. Ukraine's position as the EU's dominant supplier has been reinforced rather than diminished by the geopolitical upheaval of 2022; the crisis triggered a severe price shock but did not fundamentally redirect trade flows away from Ukrainian origin.

The sharp increase in import concentration (HHI +74.5%) represents the most significant vulnerability in the current market structure. While EU domestic production has expanded dramatically—more than tripling in volume—the growth has been insufficient to offset rising demand, keeping net import reliance elevated at 26%. The concentration of this critical food ingredient on a single supplier, situated in an active conflict zone, underscores the strategic exposure of the EU's edible oils supply chain.

Looking forward, the data points to a market that remains structurally dependent on Ukrainian sunflower-seed oil, where price dynamics are heavily influenced by geopolitical risk, and where the EU's processing capacity—although growing—has not yet translated into meaningful import substitution.