Market evolution: Sunflower oil (CN 151219) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of refined or semi-refined sunflower oil (excluding crude, CN 151219) for the European Union over the period 2015-2025. The decade was characterized by a fundamental transformation of the EU's position, shifting from a consistent net exporter to a state of near-import dependency by 2025. This reversal was driven by a confluence of factors: a dramatic surge in imports from Ukraine, significant price volatility, and subsequent adjustments in the EU's own production and trade structure. The following sections detail the key dynamics behind this shift, focusing on the changing trade balance, the impact of external shocks, and the evolving structure and vulnerability of the EU market.

The Ukraine-Driven Import Surge and the Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus

The most pronounced trend in the EU's sunflower oil trade is the explosive growth of imports, which fundamentally altered the trade balance. This section examines the scale, origin, and consequences of this import surge.

Imports grew at a pace far exceeding exports, collapsing the trade surplus

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports for CN 151219 increased by 382.4%, from €89.9 million to €433.5 million. In contrast, export value grew by 55.3% over the same period. This disparate growth caused the EU's trade surplus to collapse by 95.6%, shrinking from €194.8 million to just €8.6 million. In volume terms, imports surged by 259.9% (from 93,387 tonnes to 336,138 tonnes), while exports grew by a modest 7.8%.

Ukraine became the overwhelmingly dominant source of EU imports

The growth in imports was overwhelmingly sourced from a single partner: Ukraine. Import value from Ukraine skyrocketed by 1,737.9% over the period, reaching €361.6 million in 2025 and accounting for the vast majority of total import growth. This concentration is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners, which more than tripled from 1,979 to 7,026, indicating a shift from a moderately concentrated to a highly concentrated import market.

The import surge was concentrated in the food-grade oil segment

The product segment breakdown reveals that the import boom was led by the food-grade oil sub-category (15121990). In 2022, the peak year for import value, imports of this segment reached €660 million. The technical/industrial use segment (15121910) remained a minor component of total trade, though its volumes and values also became more volatile.

Price Volatility and the 2022 Supply Shock

Alongside the structural shift in trade volumes, the period was marked by extreme price volatility, culminating in a major shock in 2022. This section explores the nature of this volatility and its connection to global events.

Unit prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a pronounced spike in 2022

The average import price for CN 151219 varied between €759/t and €1,751/t during the period. Export prices followed a similar trajectory, ranging from €947/t to €1,955/t. Both import and export prices peaked sharply in 2022, with import prices jumping to €1,751/t (a 115% increase from 2021) and export prices to €1,955/t (a 47% increase). This price spike synchronized with a dramatic contraction in export volumes, which fell by 21% in 2022.

The 2022 shock was driven by geopolitical conflict affecting supply from the Black Sea region

The 2022 price shock and volume disruption are directly linked to the outbreak of conflict involving Ukraine, a major global sunflower oil producer. This is evidenced by the data on detected supply shocks, which identifies significant price abnormalities centered on 2022 for exports to markets like New Zealand, Morocco, and Israel. The conflict disrupted logistics and created uncertainty, causing a temporary price spiral and a reallocation of trade flows. The volatility coefficient for imports from Ukraine (0.57) and Moldova (1.64) highlights the instability of these key supply lines during the period.

Structural Shifts and Increased Market Vulnerability

The import surge and price shocks led to tangible changes in the EU's internal market structure and its vulnerability to external disruptions, as measured by specialization, concentration, and trade intensity metrics.

EU production of sunflower oil grew strongly, yet export propensity declined

EU production of CN 151219 increased by 134.1% in quantity (from 2.0 billion kg to 4.7 billion kg) and 252.0% in value over the period. Despite this growth, the EU's export propensity—the share of production exported—declined from 10.5% to 9.3%. This suggests that increased domestic production was absorbed to meet internal demand, partly offsetting the need for even higher imports.

The EU's import reliance deepened, and trade intensity increased

The EU's net import reliance for this product, while still indicating a net exporter position (negative value), moved dramatically closer to zero. It improved by 86.5%, from -10.8% in 2015 to -1.5% in 2025, meaning the net export position almost vanished. Concurrently, the trade intensity—the sum of imports and exports as a share of production—increased by 43.9% to 16.0%, indicating the EU market became more integrated into and reliant on global trade flows.

Specialization patterns highlight Eastern European production hubs

Analysis of comparative advantage for 2025 shows strong export specialization in Eastern European Member States: Bulgaria (RSCA: 0.84), Hungary (0.76), and Croatia (0.42). These countries were key exporters to non-EU partners. Conversely, countries like Ireland, Finland, and Denmark showed negligible specialization in this product, relying almost entirely on imports or intra-EU trade.

Conclusion

The decade ending in 2025 witnessed a structural transformation of the EU's sunflower oil market. A massive increase in imports, predominantly from Ukraine, eroded a healthy trade surplus to near balance. This shift exposed the EU to significant volatility, crystallized in the 2022 price shock linked to the Black Sea conflict. While EU production responded strongly, it primarily served to deepen domestic market integration rather than boost exports. As a result, the EU's position evolved into one of near import-dependency with heightened trade intensity, underscoring a greater vulnerability to disruptions in global supply chains, particularly from its now-dominant Eastern European neighbors.