Market evolution: Sunflower oil (CN 151211) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of crude sunflower-seed or safflower oil (Customs code 151211) for the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The decade witnessed a fundamental transformation in this market, characterized by a dramatic expansion of imports, a significant widening of the trade deficit, and a pronounced increase in price volatility. These shifts were driven by evolving geopolitical relationships, severe supply shocks, and changing competitive landscapes. The EU's growing dependence on a limited number of external suppliers, particularly Ukraine, has become a defining feature of the market's structure, raising questions about long-term resilience.

The Accelerating Trade Deficit and Import Surge

The period under review shows a decisive trend: the EU's reliance on imported crude sunflower oil has intensified substantially, leading to a greatly expanded trade deficit.

The widening trade imbalance and rising import values

The EU's trade deficit for crude sunflower oil widened from -€379 million in 2015 to -€1.87 billion in 2025, a deterioration of nearly 393%. This was fuelled by import values growing at a much faster rate than exports. While EU exports increased by 69.3% in value, imports surged by 265.7% over the same period. The import quantity more than doubled (+156.2%), indicating a fundamental growth in the EU's appetite for externally sourced crude sunflower oil.

The consolidation of Ukraine as the dominant supplier

The increase in imports was overwhelmingly sourced from Ukraine. Ukrainian imports to the EU grew from €467 million in 2015 to €2.14 billion in 2025, a 358% increase, securing its position as the top partner by value. Other traditional suppliers saw declining or volatile performance. Notably, imports from Argentina fell by 44.3%, and those from the Russian Federation collapsed by 96.8% to a negligible €291,479 in 2025, reflecting the impact of sanctions. This shift concentrated the EU's import base, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value, which rose from 5,841 to 8,795.

Supply Disruption, Price Spikes, and Volatility

The market was not only characterized by volume growth but also by extreme price turbulence, driven by geopolitical and economic shocks.

The price escalation and the 2021-2022 shock

Both import and export unit prices increased over the decade, but with a dramatic spike. EU import prices rose from €786/t in 2015 to €1,121/t in 2025 (+42.7%). However, the data reveals a severe anomaly: a massive price shock event for Ukrainian imports centered in 2021, with an abnormality score of 13.0 and a price shift of +63.6%. This preceded the broader market turmoil of 2022, where the full impact of the war in Ukraine was felt, pushing EU import prices to a peak of €1,405/t in 2022.

Export-side volatility and partner-specific fluctuations

EU export markets also experienced instability. A significant price shock was detected for exports to Egypt in 2022 (+934.7%). Volatility analysis shows high instability in trade with several partners, including the Russian Federation (CV 1.61 for imports) and countries like the United States and the Philippines (CV >2.0). This indicates that beyond the dominant Ukraine-EU flow, many other trade relationships for this commodity are prone to sharp variations.

Shifting Market Structure and Strategic Vulnerability

The trade evolution has reshaped the EU's internal market structure and altered its strategic position regarding food and industrial inputs.

Concentration in imports versus diversification in exports

A stark contrast exists between import and export market concentration. While import concentration intensified significantly (HHI for value up 50.6%), the EU's export market became more diversified, with the export HHI falling by 37.0%. This suggests the EU is consolidating its role as a major processing and re-export hub, particularly for crude sunflower oil destined for non-food industrial uses (CN 15121110), while becoming more dependent on a concentrated stream of raw material imports. Leading EU exporters like Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and France maintain diversified global customer bases.

The role of EU member states as import hubs and the vulnerability question

The import surge was channelled through specific member states. Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, and France became the largest importers within the EU, with Spain increasing its imports by 317% to €685 million in 2025. This centralization creates logistical and strategic exposure points. Furthermore, the net import reliance metric, which stood at 43.7% in 2025, and the decline in the EU's export propensity (down 29.0%) highlight a growing strategic vulnerability. The EU's ability to meet internal demand is increasingly contingent on stable flows from a primary supplier operating in a conflict-affected region.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period marks a structural shift for the EU's crude sunflower oil market, defined by a tripling of import values and a significantly deepened trade deficit. This was not merely a quantitative change but one fraught with volatility, as evidenced by the extreme price shocks of 2021–2022. The market structure has evolved to show a dangerous concentration of import sources, with Ukraine becoming the overwhelmingly dominant supplier. Internally, the EU has solidified its position as a processor and re-exporter. The key takeaway is the emergence of a pronounced strategic vulnerability: the bloc's food and industrial supply chains for this key vegetable oil are now heavily reliant on a geographically concentrated and geopolitically sensitive source, a dynamic that warrants careful consideration in future trade and agricultural policy.