Market evolution: Other animal fats and oils (CN 1506) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the European Union's trade in "Other animal fats and oils and their fractions" (Customs code 1506) over the period 2015 to 2025. The product is a residual category in the animal and vegetable fats and oils chapter, excluding the major commodity codes for pig, bovine, fish, and common vegetable oils. Based on the provided data, the EU's position in this market has undergone a dramatic transformation, evolving from a modest participant into a significant net exporter characterized by explosive volume growth, major shifts in partner countries, and a deeper integration into global supply chains.

1. The EU's Rapid Emergence as a High-Volume Net Exporter

Over the 2015–2025 period, the European Union transitioned from a balanced trade position to a dominant net exporter for product 1506, driven by a staggering increase in export volumes that outpaced all other metrics. This section examines the underlying dynamics of this shift.

A Transformative Surge in Export Volumes

The most striking trend is the phenomenal growth in EU export quantities. Between 2015 and 2025, exports in tonnes grew by over 673%, from 8,651 to 66,896 tonnes. This volume growth far exceeded the corresponding increase in export value (115.8%), indicating a fundamental change in the nature of the trade.

Source: General Overview - Trade

A Structural Price Collapse

The data reveals a consistent and severe decline in the unit export price, which fell by 72.1% over the decade. This dramatic price compression, occurring alongside volume expansion, suggests the EU shifted its export strategy or product mix. It may reflect a move towards higher-volume, lower-value-added bulk fats and oils, or increased competition putting downward pressure on prices. The export price was volatile, peaking at EUR 4,295/t and bottoming out at EUR 812/t.

Stable Domestic Production Supporting Export Growth

Despite the volatility in trade, EU production remained relatively stable. Production quantities in 2025 were only 9.8% lower than in 2015, while production value more than doubled (117.8% increase). This indicates that the surge in exports was not primarily sourced from a domestic production boom but was more likely facilitated by stock management, re-exports, or a reallocation of existing output to external markets.

Source: Market Structure - Production Volumes

2. Shifting Trade Partners and Market Concentration

The EU's external trade relationships for product 1506 were completely reconfigured during the period. While imports became more diversified, exports became heavily concentrated on a single major market, creating a significant vulnerability.

The Rise of the United States as the Dominant Export Destination

The United States emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant destination for EU exports. Its share of export value skyrocketed, culminating in a single price shock in 2019 where the value share reached 90.2%. By 2025, exports to the US were valued at EUR 62.7 million, accounting for the vast majority of total EU export value. This extreme concentration is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, which increased by 60% to 8,562, indicating a highly concentrated market.

Source: General Overview - Top Partners by Value (Exports)

Diversification of Import Sources

In contrast to the concentrated export picture, the import side saw a decrease in concentration. The HHI for imports fell by 54.4% to 1,582. While the United Kingdom remained a key supplier (though its value share fell by 14.9%), new, volatile suppliers like Serbia (+812%), Switzerland (+551%), and the United States (which emerged from near-zero to a major supplier) entered the picture. This diversification may reflect supply chain adjustments or sourcing for niche re-export processing.

Internal EU Market Restructuring

Within the EU, there was a massive internal reallocation of trade flows. The Netherlands underwent the most dramatic change, with its export value surging by over 13,700% to become the bloc's largest exporter. Conversely, traditional exporters like Spain saw their role collapse (-99.9% change). On the import side, Belgium's imports grew by over 1,000%, suggesting a shift in entry points for the EU market.

Source: General Overview - Top Reporters by Value

3. Strategic Integration: Enhanced Export Propensity and Trade Intensity

The final set of dynamics reveals the EU's increasingly strategic integration into the global market for this product category, moving from a largely domestic-oriented sector to one with a strong outward focus.

Surging Export Propensity and Trade Intensity

Key indicators show a profound increase in the EU's engagement with world markets. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from a mere 0.65% in 2015 to 9.02% in 2025 (a 1,286% increase). Similarly, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) increased from 1.04% to 11.44% (a 1,002% increase). This demonstrates that the sector became significantly more export-oriented and globally connected over the period.

Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability

From Balanced Trade to Consistent Net Exporter

The net import reliance metric confirms the shift. The EU consistently maintained a net export position (negative values) from 2015 onward, albeit with volatility, bottoming out at -13.09% in one year. By 2025, the net export position stood at -6.70%. This structural change, combined with the collapse in export prices, points to a long-term competitive advantage or strategic focus on this residual product category.

Geographic Specialisation and Vulnerability

Specialisation is geographically concentrated within the EU. In 2025, Slovakia, Croatia, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands showed high revealed comparative advantage in this product. This concentration suggests regional industrial dependencies. Furthermore, the extreme reliance on the US export market represents a key vulnerability. A significant drop in demand from the US, as seen in the 2019 price shock, could have outsized impacts on the EU's trade surplus in this category.

Source: Market Structure - Specialisation

Conclusion

The EU market for "Other animal fats and oils" (CN 1506) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The bloc evolved from a relatively balanced market into a major net exporter, driven by an explosive 673% increase in export volumes. This growth, however, was accompanied by a severe 72% decline in export unit values, suggesting a shift to high-volume, lower-margin trade. A critical risk emerged from the overwhelming concentration of exports to the United States, which dominated the market by the end of the period. Internally, the EU market restructured, with the Netherlands becoming the epicentre of exports. Overall, the data indicates that the EU successfully leveraged this residual product category to become a significant global supplier, but at the cost of increased price volatility and heightened dependence on a single, albeit large, external market.