Market evolution: Tallow and suet (CN 1502) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in product CN 1502 — Fats of bovine animals, sheep or goats (excluding oil and oleostearin) — over the period 2015–2025. The product group encompasses two sub-headings: CN 150210 (tallow of bovine animals, sheep or goats) and CN 150290 (other fats of bovine animals, sheep or goats, excluding tallow, oleostearin and oleo-oil). Tallow and related animal fats serve as key inputs in oleochemicals, animal feed, biodiesel and food-processing industries. Over the decade examined, EU trade in CN 1502 was shaped by three overarching dynamics: a dramatic price surge that more than compensated for declining traded volumes, a far-reaching realignment of trade partners driven by geopolitical and sanitary factors, and a structural shift in the EU's role in the global market — moving from a modest net exporter toward near self-sufficiency while its trade openness contracted sharply. Scope & definitions

1. A price-driven market: volumes fell but values surged

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 decade is the divergence between traded volumes and traded values. On both the import and export sides, the EU shipped fewer tonnes of bovine fats in 2025 than in 2015, yet the monetary value of those flows increased substantially — entirely because unit prices roughly doubled.

1.1 Export volumes contracted by over a third while export values rose by 40 %

EU exports of CN 1502 fell from 39,221 tonnes in 2015 to 25,049 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 36.1 %. Over the same period, however, export value rose from €24.5 million to €34.3 million (+39.9 %). The reconciliation lies in unit prices: the average export price climbed from €626/t to €1,370/t — an increase of 119.0 %. The price peak was reached around 2022, when the average export price hit €1,739/t, consistent with the global commodity-price spike that followed the post-COVID recovery and the 2022 energy shock. General overview

1.2 Import volumes dipped only modestly, but import values rose by 62 %

EU imports of CN 1502 declined more gently, from 70,665 tonnes in 2015 to 63,719 tonnes in 2025 (−9.8 %). Yet import value surged from €40.2 million to €65.3 million (+62.2 %), propelled by import unit prices that climbed from €569/t to €1,024/t (+79.9 %). The import price peaked at €1,124/t in 2023. The softer volume decline on the import side, compared with exports, reflects the EU's growing reliance on external supply to meet domestic demand for bovine fats.

1.3 The EU trade deficit in bovine fats widened significantly

The EU ran a trade deficit in CN 1502 throughout most of the period. In 2015, the deficit stood at €15.7 million; by 2025 it had widened to €31.0 million (−97.2 % change in the balance). The deficit was at its deepest in 2021 (−€46.5 million), coinciding with the sharp post-pandemic price spike when import values surged ahead of export values. The EU briefly moved into a small surplus in 2022 (€7.4 million), largely thanks to a spike in export unit values, but the deficit returned in subsequent years. Net import reliance

1.4 Tallow dominated trade, but the "other fats" sub-segment grew in importance

Breaking the headline figures down by sub-heading reveals diverging trends. CN 150210 (tallow) accounted for the lion's share of both imports and exports throughout the period, but its export volume fell sharply — from 31,911 tonnes in 2015 to just 16,176 tonnes in 2025 (−49.3 %). Meanwhile, CN 150290 (other bovine fats) saw its export volume rise from 7,311 tonnes to 8,873 tonnes (+21.4 %), and its export value more than doubled from €4.7 million to €12.6 million. On the import side, tallow volumes declined from 63,315 to 54,970 tonnes (−13.2 %), while other fats imports rose from 7,350 to 8,748 tonnes (+19.0 %). This suggests a growing diversification of the product mix in EU external trade. Product segment breakdown

2. A far-reaching realignment of trade partners

The decade 2015–2025 saw the EU's trade geography for bovine fats undergo a structural transformation. Traditional South American suppliers largely withdrew from the EU import market, the United Kingdom consolidated its position post-Brexit, and new suppliers — notably Türkiye, Serbia and Ukraine — emerged. On the export side, flows to Russia collapsed entirely following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while the Philippines and several Balkan and post-Soviet markets grew in importance.

2.1 South American suppliers receded sharply from EU import flows

Argentina and Brazil were once significant suppliers of bovine fats to the EU. Over the decade, both virtually disappeared from the market. Argentine imports fell from €455,313 in 2015 to just €1,658 in 2025 (−99.6 %), having peaked at €24.8 million in the intervening years before collapsing. Brazilian imports followed a similar trajectory, dropping from €2.4 million to essentially zero (−100.0 %). Uruguay, by contrast, managed to sustain and grow its position, with imports rising from €14.5 million to €24.8 million (+70.9 %), making it the EU's second-largest extra-EU supplier by value in 2025. These diverging fortunes likely reflect differences in sanitary compliance, market access conditions and competitiveness. Top partners

2.2 The United Kingdom consolidated its role as the EU's top bilateral partner

Following Brexit, the United Kingdom became the EU's single largest extra-EU partner in CN 1502 on both the import and export sides. UK-origin imports into the EU grew from €24.6 million in 2015 to €30.8 million in 2025 (+25.3 %), while EU exports to the UK rose from €9.9 million to €13.3 million (+34.1 %). The UK accounted for 47.3 % of EU extra-EU import value and 38.7 % of export value in 2025. This bilateral prominence reflects geographic proximity, integrated supply chains in the meat and rendering sectors, and continuity of trade arrangements under the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

2.3 Türkiye emerged as a major new import supplier, while Ukraine and Serbia gained ground

Perhaps the most dramatic partner shift was the rise of Türkiye as an EU import source. Turkish-origin imports surged from just €5,999 in 2015 to €7.1 million in 2025 — an increase of over 118,000 %. Ukraine and Serbia also emerged as meaningful suppliers, with Ukrainian imports growing from €10,614 to €523,699 and Serbian imports rising from €11,549 to €1.04 million. These trends likely reflect competitive pricing, growing processing capacity in the Balkans and Black Sea region, and improved market access. The volatility coefficients for these newer suppliers are notably high (Turkey CV = 1.26, Ukraine CV = 0.82), indicating that these trade flows remain less stable than those with traditional partners. Volatility

2.4 EU exports to Russia collapsed after 2022, while the Philippines and the Western Balkans grew

On the export side, the most notable disruption was the disappearance of flows to the Russian Federation. In 2015, Russia was the EU's fifth-largest extra-EU export destination for bovine fats, receiving €4.6 million worth. By 2025, exports had fallen to essentially zero — a direct consequence of the sanctions regime imposed following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A sharp price shock was detected in this trade relationship in 2018, when the average export price to Russia spiked by 914 %, possibly reflecting a one-off transaction or a shift in the product mix. Supply shocks

In contrast, exports to the Philippines grew from €645,312 to €4.3 million (+569.0 %), making it a top-five destination by 2025. Ukraine also became a significant export market, with flows rising from €39,273 to €3.4 million (+8,487 %). Bosnia and Herzegovina saw exports grow from €519,865 to €1.8 million (+237.0 %). These shifts suggest the EU's export geography is increasingly oriented towards South-East Europe and Asia.

2.5 Import concentration declined, signalling a more diversified supplier base

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports of CN 1502 by value fell from 5,046 in 2015 to 3,803 in 2025 (−24.6 %). While this remains above the 2,500 threshold commonly associated with a "highly concentrated" market, the downward trend indicates that the EU has successfully diversified its import sources over the decade — replacing lost South American supply with new entrants from Türkiye, the Balkans and Eastern Europe. Export-side concentration remained lower and more stable, declining modestly from 2,250 to 2,114 (−6.1 %). Concentration

3. The EU's shrinking trade footprint in bovine fats

Beyond partner realignment, the data reveals a broader structural evolution: the EU has become significantly less engaged in international trade for bovine fats. Both trade intensity and export propensity contracted sharply over the decade, while the EU's net import position moved from modest exporter status towards near-balance. Domestic production remained broadly stable in volume terms, suggesting that the declining trade footprint reflects a shift towards meeting domestic demand internally rather than a decline in the underlying industry.

3.1 Trade intensity and export propensity both fell by more than half

EU trade intensity for CN 1502 (the ratio of total trade to production) declined from 16.6 % in 2015 to just 7.2 % in 2025 (−56.4 %). Export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — fell even more steeply, from 11.1 % to 4.2 % (−62.5 %). Both metrics hit their lowest point in 2025, indicating a long-term structural contraction rather than a cyclical dip. This suggests that EU-produced bovine fats are increasingly consumed or processed domestically, likely driven by growing demand for oleochemical feedstocks and biofuel blending mandates within the EU.

3.2 The EU moved from net exporter status towards trade balance

The net import reliance indicator confirms this structural shift. In 2015, the EU was a net exporter of bovine fats, with a net import reliance of −4.7 %. By 2025, this figure had moved close to zero (−0.9 %), meaning the EU was nearly self-sufficient in trade terms. The indicator briefly turned positive in 2021 (reaching +6.9 %), when the post-COVID import surge temporarily outpaced exports. Over the full period, the change was +81.5 %, reflecting a clear long-term convergence towards trade balance.

3.3 Domestic production volumes held steady while reported values surged

EU production volumes for CN 1502 were broadly stable, declining only 3.4 % from 828 million kg in 2015 to 800 million kg in 2025. Reported production values, however, surged from €207 million to €800 million (+286.6 %). This sharp divergence in value mirrors the price inflation observed in trade flows and suggests that the domestic market for bovine fats experienced the same commodity-price escalation seen internationally. The stability of volumes, despite shifts in trade, indicates that the EU's cattle and sheep slaughtering and rendering industries maintained their throughput capacity throughout the period.

3.4 France and Ireland led EU specialisation, while large Member States showed weak comparative advantage

In 2025, France (RSCA 0.63, RCA 4.44) and Ireland (RSCA 0.59, RCA 3.86) were by far the most specialised EU Member States in bovine fats exports, reflecting their large cattle industries and strong orientation towards tallow and suet processing. Sweden, Portugal and Cyprus showed moderate specialisation. At the other end of the spectrum, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Spain exhibited strongly negative RSCA values, indicating that these countries are net importers with minimal comparative advantage in the product. Specialisation

3.5 The EU's growing import reliance is concentrated in a few Member States

The top EU importing Member States in 2025 were Spain (€17.0 million, up from €59,014 in 2015 — a rise of 28,750 %), Ireland (€14.5 million, +190 %), Belgium (€15.6 million, +12 %) and Finland (€7.8 million, −34 %). Spain's explosive growth as an importer likely reflects its expanding oleochemical and biofuel sectors. On the export side, Ireland (€8.3 million, +70 %), Poland (€6.3 million, +62 %), Belgium (€4.7 million, +120 %) and Germany (€4.2 million, −23 %) were the leading exporters. The geographic concentration of imports in southern and western Europe and exports in north-western and central Europe reveals a clear intra-EU specialisation pattern. Top reporters

Conclusion

The EU market for bovine fats (CN 1502) underwent significant structural change between 2015 and 2025. The headline story is one of price-driven value growth against a backdrop of declining volumes: traded tonnages fell on both the import and export sides, but unit prices roughly doubled, lifting total trade values. This price surge — peaking in 2022–2023 — reflected broader global commodity dynamics, including post-pandemic supply constraints and the energy crisis.

The second major development was a wholesale reshaping of the EU's trade geography. Traditional South American suppliers (Argentina, Brazil) largely vacated the market, Russia was cut off by sanctions, and new suppliers from Türkiye, the Balkans and Eastern Europe stepped in. The United Kingdom consolidated its role as the EU's dominant bilateral partner post-Brexit, and the Philippines emerged as a fast-growing export destination.

Finally, the data points to a long-term decline in the EU's trade openness for bovine fats. Trade intensity and export propensity both fell by more than half, and the EU shifted from modest net exporter to near trade balance. This occurred while domestic production volumes held steady, suggesting that EU output is increasingly absorbed domestically — potentially by the oleochemical, animal feed and renewable fuel sectors. The EU's bovine fats market is thus becoming more self-contained, more expensive, and served by a more diversified import base than it was a decade ago.