Market evolution: Fish oils and fractions (CN 150420) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the trade evolution of fish oils and their fractions (Customs Code 150420) for the European Union with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a decade of significant transformation, characterised by a dramatic expansion in trade values, a fundamental shift in the EU's trade balance from a net importer to a net exporter, and notable volatility in prices and supply partnerships. This analysis delves into the overarching trends, the structural changes in market supply and demand, and the factors influencing the EU's trade resilience.
1. A Decade of Growth and a Shift to Net Exporter Status
The 2015-2025 period was defined by robust growth in both EU imports and exports of fish oils, with exports growing at a substantially faster pace. This differential growth fundamentally altered the EU's position in the global market.
Trade values surged, with exports outpacing imports
EU exports of fish oils saw a remarkable increase, growing by 116.3% in value from €257.8 million in 2015 to €557.5 million in 2025. Import values also grew significantly, by 72.1%, rising from €277.6 million to €477.7 million over the same period (General Overview). The peak year for imports was 2023 at €685.5 million, while exports peaked in 2024 at €643.5 million.
| Metric | 2015 Value | 2025 Value | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (EUR) | 257,798,258 | 557,503,934 | +116.3 |
| Import Value (EUR) | 277,628,200 | 477,669,894 | +72.1 |
| Trade Balance (EUR) | -19,829,942 | 79,834,040 | +502.6 |
The EU transitioned from a net importer to a net exporter
The more vigorous growth in exports allowed the EU to reverse its trade position. In 2015, the EU had a trade deficit of -€19.8 million. By 2025, this had transformed into a surplus of +€79.8 million. The deficit was at its largest in 2018 at -€166.6 million, after which the balance improved steadily (Autonomy & Vulnerability).
2. Structural Shifts in Supply, Demand, and Specialisation
The growth in trade was underpinned by significant changes in the EU's internal production landscape and the structure of its external partnerships, leading to increased market concentration on the export side.
EU production value increased dramatically, supporting export growth
While the physical quantity of EU production of fish oils remained relatively stable (growing just 2.4% from 156,320 kg to 160,000 kg), the value of that production exploded by 585.6%, from €81.7 million to €560 million. This suggests a major shift towards higher-value products and processing within the EU, providing a stronger foundation for exports (Market Structure).
Trade became more diversified on the import side but more concentrated on the export side
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, shows divergent trends. For imports, the HHI fell sharply from 1,838 to 1,088, indicating that the EU diversified its supplier base away from historical dominance. For exports, the HHI remained high and increased slightly from 4,688 to 5,218, reflecting a high and rising concentration in a few key destination markets (Market Structure).
Denmark solidified its role as the EU's trade hub
Within the EU, Denmark consistently dominated both imports and exports. In 2025, it accounted for €206.9 million of the EU's imports (43%) and €383.8 million of its exports (69%). Several other Member States, notably Belgium, France, and Spain, also showed explosive growth in their export activities, though from smaller bases (General Overview).
3. Price Volatility, Supply Shocks, and Improved Resilience
The decade was not without disruptions. The market experienced significant price volatility and notable supply shocks, yet the EU's underlying trade position strengthened, enhancing its autonomy.
Prices were volatile, with a major spike in 2022-2023
The average unit price for both imports and exports more than doubled over the period. Import prices rose from €1,633/t to €2,305/t (+41.2%), while export prices increased from €1,977/t to €3,127/t (+58.2%). The most extreme price swings occurred in 2022-2023, likely reflecting global supply chain disruptions and the 2022 energy crisis (General Overview).
Specific partners exhibited high trade volatility and price shocks
Trade with certain partners was highly unstable. For example, exports to Peru and the Faroe Islands showed extreme volatility (coefficient of variation >1.3), indicating large year-to-year swings. Furthermore, the data detects several acute price shock events, such as a +142.3% price shift for exports to the United Arab Emirates in 2023 and a +588.7% shift for exports to Morocco in 2020 (Volatility & Shocks).
The EU's net import reliance turned negative, signifying greater autonomy
A key indicator of vulnerability, net import reliance, swung from +15.6% in 2015 to -7.7% in 2025. This negative value confirms that the EU became a net exporter on a consistent basis. Concurrently, the EU's export propensity (exports as a percentage of production) surged to 116.3% in 2025, up from 81.2%, demonstrating its increasingly outward-oriented market stance (Autonomy & Vulnerability).
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU fish oils market (CN 150420) underwent a profound transformation. The bloc evolved from a net importer to a net exporter, powered by a substantial increase in the value of domestic production and the aggressive export growth of Member States like Denmark and Belgium. While the market faced considerable price volatility and diversifying import sources, these dynamics did not hinder its expansion. Instead, the EU's trade position strengthened markedly, achieving greater self-sufficiency and a stronger, though more concentrated, export profile. The period highlights a successful shift up the value chain and towards greater resilience in the global fish oils trade.