Market evolution: Fish oil liquid fractions (CN 15042090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's international trade in fish fats and oils and liquid fractions (Combined Nomenclature code 15042090) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers refined and unrefined fish oils and their liquid fractions, excluding chemically modified oils and liver oils. It falls within the broader chapter of animal and vegetable fats and oils (HS 15), and corresponds to PRODCOM code 10.41.12.00. Fish oil is a globally traded commodity used extensively in aquaculture feed, nutraceuticals (notably omega-3 supplements), and pharmaceutical applications.

Over the decade under review, EU trade in this product underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc shifted from being a modest net importer to a clear net exporter, export values more than doubled, and unit prices surged. Meanwhile, the geographic landscape of both sourcing and destination markets evolved substantially, with some new partners rising rapidly and long-standing relationships deepening. This report examines these dynamics in three sections: the value and price drivers behind overall trade growth; the geographic reconfiguration of the EU's trading partners; and the structural shift in the EU's position from net importer to net exporter.

1. Price-Led Growth: Surging Values Outpace Volume Expansion

1.1 Export values more than doubled while volumes grew by a third

The EU's total trade in CN 15042090 grew substantially over the period. Export values rose from €257.5 million in 2015 to €555.5 million in 2025, an increase of 115.7%. Over the same period, export volumes grew from 130,339 tonnes to 177,753 tonnes (+36.4%). This means that roughly two-thirds of the export value growth came from rising unit prices rather than higher physical volumes. Indeed, the average export price climbed from €1,976/t to €3,124/t (+58.1%), with a peak reaching €4,808/t in one year of the period.

1.2 Import prices also rose, but less steeply than export prices

On the import side, values increased from €275.1 million to €473.1 million (+71.9%), while volumes grew from 169,312 tonnes to 206,612 tonnes (+22.0%). Import unit prices rose from €1,625/t to €2,290/t (+40.9%), peaking at €4,067/t in one year. The fact that export prices grew faster than import prices (58.1% vs. 40.9%) is a key factor in the EU's improving trade balance, which swung from a deficit of €17.6 million in 2015 to a surplus of €82.4 million in 2025 — a shift of 567%.

1.3 EU production value grew far faster than production volume, signalling a price super-cycle

PRODCOM production data reveals a striking divergence between volume and value trends within the EU. EU production quantity grew modestly from 156.3 million kg to 160.0 million kg (+2.4%) over the period, but production value surged from €81.7 million to €560.0 million (+585.6%). This implies that the average unit value of EU-produced fish oil multiplied several times over the decade. The period included a production volume trough of just 40.1 million kg and a value trough of €39.3 million, alongside a peak value of €800 million, indicating significant year-on-year volatility consistent with raw material supply fluctuations (linked to fish catch variability) and global demand surges in omega-3 products.

2. Geographic Reconfiguration: Diversifying Imports and Deepening Export Partnerships

2.1 Import sources became more diversified while export destinations became more concentrated

A notable structural divergence appears in the concentration patterns of EU trade partners. On the import side, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) by value fell from 1,855 to 1,101 (−40.7%), indicating that the EU broadened its sourcing base and reduced reliance on any single supplier. By volume, the HHI also declined from 2,074 to 1,409 (−32.1%). In contrast, the HHI for exports by value increased from 4,699 to 5,239 (+11.5%), meaning that export sales became even more concentrated on a small number of key destinations — most notably Norway.

2.2 Norway dominates EU fish oil trade as both the top supplier and the top buyer

Norway stands out as the EU's single most important partner on both sides of the ledger. As an import source, Norway supplied €76.3 million in 2025 (up 37.9% from €55.3 million in 2015), with relatively low volatility (CV of 0.17 — the lowest among major partners). As an export destination, Norway absorbed €395.8 million of EU fish oil exports in 2025, up 142.7% from €163.1 million in 2015. Norway's share of EU exports therefore grew dramatically, reflecting the deep integration of the EU-Norway value chain in fishmeal and fish oil — much of this trade likely relates to tolling and reprocessing arrangements tied to Norway's massive salmon aquaculture industry.

2.3 Chile's import role surged, while Iceland emerged as a fast-growing export market

Among import sources, Chile recorded the most dramatic growth: EU imports from Chile rose from €10.6 million in 2015 to €49.0 million in 2025 (+362.4%), though with high volatility (CV of 0.60). This likely reflects Chile's anchovy fishery recovery and expanded fish oil processing capacity. Peru remained a major supplier (€94.8 million in 2025, +8.9%), though with high year-on-year swings (CV of 0.54), consistent with El Niño-driven catch variability in the South Pacific. Morocco (+28.8%) and the United Kingdom (+11.1%) also remained significant suppliers.

On the export side, Iceland emerged as a remarkable growth story, rising from virtually nothing (€638 in 2015) to €29.1 million in 2025. The United States also grew strongly as an export destination (from €1.1 million to €11.0 million, +861.5%), as did Canada (+1,110.8%). The United Kingdom remained a stable mid-size export market at €56.0 million.

2.4 Denmark anchors EU trade, but Spain and Germany gained ground as exporters

Within the EU, Denmark was by far the largest reporting member state for both imports (€206.6 million in 2025, +41.3%) and exports (€383.7 million, +88.0%). Denmark's dominance reflects its central role in European fishmeal and fish oil processing, anchored by companies serving the global aquaculture feed chain.

However, several other member states saw rapid export growth. Spain's exports rose from €0.8 million to €16.6 million (+1,932.6%), Germany's from €3.2 million to €14.2 million (+345.8%), Belgium's from €5.0 million to €45.8 million (+810.5%), and France's from €20.3 million to €53.8 million (+165.5%). This suggests a geographic broadening of EU processing and re-export activity beyond Denmark.

3. From Net Importer to Net Exporter: A Structural Shift in the EU's Trade Position

3.1 Net import reliance reversed from positive to negative

The most consequential structural development over the decade is the EU's transition from a net importing to a net exporting position in fish oil. Net import reliance (defined as imports minus exports relative to a reference base) moved from +15.6% in 2015 to −7.7% in 2025 — a swing of nearly 150 percentage points. During the period, net import reliance peaked at +69.9% in one year before collapsing, indicating that the reversal was not monotonic but involved sharp year-to-year oscillations.

This shift has important implications for the EU's strategic posture. Rather than being a price-taker dependent on external supply (particularly from South America and West Africa), the EU has built sufficient processing capacity and supply-chain integration to position itself as a net provider of fish oil products to the world market.

3.2 Export propensity surged, reflecting an outward-oriented processing industry

Export propensity — measured as exports relative to domestic production — rose from 81.2% to 116.3% over the period (+43.2%). This means that by 2025, the EU was exporting more fish oil than it produced domestically, implying that imports are being substantially reprocessed and re-exported (a tolling or entrepôt pattern). Trade intensity (imports plus exports relative to production) also grew from 90.6% to 107.8% (+19.0%), confirming that the EU's fish oil market became more internationally integrated over the decade.

The salience analysis identifies export propensity (score: 109.5) as the dominant indicator of the EU's market structure, ahead of trade intensity (76.8), underscoring the bloc's role as a processing hub rather than merely a consuming market.

3.3 Specialisation is geographically concentrated in the Baltics, Iberia, and France

EU specialisation in fish oil exports (measured by RSCA) is highly uneven across member states. In 2025, Latvia (RSCA = 0.85, RCA = 12.4) and Estonia (RSCA = 0.73, RCA = 6.5) were the most specialised, though their share of total EU production was small (4.2% and 2.2% respectively). Spain (RSCA = 0.53, 19.0% of production) and France (RSCA = 0.45, 20.8% of production) combined for nearly 40% of EU output and also displayed strong comparative advantage. Denmark, despite being the largest exporter by value, had a more modest RSCA of 0.17, reflecting the breadth of its broader trade portfolio.

At the other end of the spectrum, Italy, Romania, Slovenia, and Croatia showed negative RSCA values, indicating that they are net importers with little or no export specialisation in this product.

3.4 Supply-chain volatility remains elevated for key partners, with sporadic price shocks

Despite the EU's improved trade position, supply-side volatility remains a concern for several import partners. The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values from the United States (0.67), Chile (0.60), Peru (0.54), and Mauritania (0.53) all exceed 0.5, indicating significant year-to-year instability. On the export side, shipments to Peru (CV = 1.36), the Faroe Islands (1.36), Chile (1.31), and Iceland (0.93) showed the highest volatility.

Several price shocks were detected during the period:

These extreme price movements, while affecting relatively small trade shares (Morocco's shock accounted for 10% of export value), point to the fragility of certain bilateral relationships and the potential for opportunistic or emergency transactions during periods of global supply tightness.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in fish oil liquid fractions (CN 15042090) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Export values more than doubled, the trade balance swung from deficit to surplus, and the bloc shifted from net importer to net exporter. Critically, much of the value growth was price-driven rather than volume-driven: export unit prices rose 58% while volumes grew 36%, and domestic production values surged far faster than physical output.

The geographic landscape also evolved significantly. Import sources diversified (HHI −41%), reducing single-supplier risk, while export destinations became more concentrated around Norway, reflecting deep value-chain integration with the Nordic aquaculture sector. Chile emerged as a major new supplier, and Iceland as a fast-growing export market. Within the EU, Denmark remained the dominant hub, but Spain, Belgium, Germany, and France all expanded their export footprints substantially.

The EU's fish oil market is now characterised by a high degree of internationalisation, with export propensity exceeding 100% — a hallmark of a processing and re-export hub. While this strengthens the EU's competitive position, elevated supply volatility from key partners (particularly in South America and West Africa) and episodic price shocks suggest that the market remains exposed to external risks linked to climate variability, fishery management, and global demand shifts in the aquaculture and nutraceutical sectors.