Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in CN 151790 — a residual heading covering edible mixtures or preparations of animal or vegetable fats or oils, excluding solid margarine, hydrogenated/inter-esterified products, and olive oil mixtures. The analysis spans 2015 to 2025 and draws on import, export, production, and concentration data for EU trade with non-EU countries. Over this decade, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter of these products, with trade volumes growing, prices surging, and the product mix undergoing a notable structural shift — particularly towards fluid mixed vegetable oils. Key external shocks, most prominently in 2022, further shaped the trajectory.

1. A Decade of Consolidating EU Net Export Strength

The EU entered the period already as a net exporter of CN 151790 products, but the gap between exports and imports widened dramatically over 2015–2025. View the overall trade evolution.

Export value nearly doubled while import value grew more modestly

EU exports rose from €353 million in 2015 to €664 million in 2025, an increase of 88%. Over the same span, imports grew from €188 million to €288 million (+53%). The result was a trade surplus that expanded from €165 million to €376 million (+128%).

Export volumes grew moderately, but values soared

Export volumes increased only 16.2%, from 208,644 t to 242,405 t, but the average export price rose from €1,692/t to €2,738/t (+61.8%). This means that the bulk of export value growth was driven by higher unit prices rather than physical volume expansion — a pattern consistent with global commodity price inflation in the 2020s.

By contrast, import volumes nearly doubled (+96.5%), climbing from 64,646 t to 127,022 t, while the average import price actually fell from €2,915/t to €2,267/t (−22.2%). This divergence — growing import volumes at declining unit values — points to the EU increasingly sourcing lower-cost bulk products (especially mixed vegetable oils) from emerging suppliers.

Net import reliance deepened in favour of the EU

The EU's net import reliance ratio swung from −3.3% in 2015 to −20.7% in 2025, meaning the EU became substantially more self-sufficient and export-oriented in this product category. View net import reliance. This is supported by a growing domestic production base: EU production in volume rose from 792 million kg to 1,021 million kg (+28.8%), while production value climbed from €842 million to €1,956 million (+132.2%), reflecting strong price inflation in manufactured fat products. View production volumes.

Export propensity — the share of production exported — rose from 12.8% to 30.3%, while trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of production) increased from 20.5% to 38.4%. View export propensity. The EU clearly became more globally integrated and competitive in this segment.

2. Rapid Diversification of Trade Partners, with Geopolitical Realignment

The decade witnessed a notable reshuffling of both import and export partner structures, driven by a combination of market diversification, geopolitical disruption, and the emergence of new low-cost suppliers. View partner data.

Import origins: new entrants replaced geographically concentrated supply

The EU's import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) by value fell sharply from 3,351 to 1,425 (−57.5%), indicating a significant reduction in supplier concentration. View concentration index. Several emerging suppliers grew explosively:

Belarus and Indonesia stand out as the most striking new import sources. Belarus' imports grew from virtually zero to €43.4 million, while Indonesia rose from €0.3 million to €21.6 million. These are likely palm-oil-based or vegetable oil mixtures, reflecting the EU's growing reliance on tropical-origin blends at lower unit prices. Meanwhile, the United States and Switzerland — traditional high-value suppliers — saw relatively flat or slightly declining trade, suggesting a market shift towards cheaper origin.

Ukraine also emerged as a notable supplier (+1,425%), though its trade was highly volatile (CV = 0.91), likely reflecting the disruption and reconfiguration of agri-food flows during and after the 2022 Russian invasion.

Export destinations: the UK consolidated as the top market, Russia declined

On the export side, HHI was already low and remained relatively stable (from 738 to 688, −6.7%), reflecting a long-diversified export structure. Key shifts include:

The United Kingdom consolidated its position as the EU's largest non-EU export market for CN 151790, growing from €66.1 million to €117.9 million — likely reflecting post-Brexit trade flows and the UK's continued reliance on EU-manufactured edible fat preparations. The United States saw the most dramatic growth (+599%), rising from €13 million to €90.6 million, becoming the second-largest destination. This surge may reflect demand for specialised industrial or food-grade preparations from EU producers known for quality and compliance.

Conversely, Russia saw a steep decline (−51.2%), from €40.6 million to €19.8 million — almost certainly linked to the EU sanctions framework imposed from 2022 onwards and the broader geopolitical rupture. Russia's export volatility was also among the highest (CV = 0.48).

Intra-EU production hubs: Spain and Italy emerged fast

Among EU member states acting as reporters, Sweden (€161M in exports), the Netherlands (€98M), and Spain (€136M) were the top three exporters in 2025. View reporter data. Spain (+284%) and Italy (+315%) saw explosive growth, reflecting their expanding agri-food processing industries. On the import side, Poland (+116%), Bulgaria (+1,907%), Romania (+360%), and Sweden (+855%) all experienced massive growth, indicating a geographic broadening of EU import gateways.

3. Product Mix Shift Toward Fluid Vegetable Oils and Price Shock in 2022

CN 151790 is a residual heading covering four distinct sub-product lines. Over 2015–2025, the composition of trade within this heading changed substantially, and the period was marked by a significant price shock centred on 2022.

Mixed fluid vegetable oils became the dominant import line

The import breakdown of the four sub-codes reveals a dramatic structural shift:

15179091 (fluid mixed vegetable oils) surged from just 10% of import volume in 2015 to 50% in 2025, becoming the single largest import category by volume. This is the primary driver of the rise in import volumes noted above, and the declining average import price is likely linked to this product's lower unit value (€1,274/t in 2025 vs. €3,384/t for 15179099). The near-disappearance of 15179010 (milkfat >10%) from imports — from 357 t to just 6 t — suggests either regulatory changes or a shift in EU dairy-processing self-sufficiency.

On the export side, 15179091 also grew strongly (46,187 t → 88,757 t, +92%), although 15179099 remained the largest export line by volume (136,607 t) and value (€388 million). Exports of 15179093 (mould-release preparations) remained fairly stable around 13,000 t — a niche industrial product with relatively high and consistent unit values (€4,300/t in 2025).

Prices surged from 2022, driven by global commodity and energy costs

Across all sub-codes, unit export prices jumped significantly between 2020 and 2022, broadly in line with the global surge in vegetable oil and energy prices. For example, 15179091 export prices rose from €1,455/t (2020) to €2,398/t (2022) before moderating slightly to €2,325/t (2025). The main 15179099 export price peaked at €2,655/t in 2023, up from €1,688/t in 2020.

Supply shocks were detected in 2022, concentrated in a few trade flows

The data identifies three statistically significant price shock events, all centred on 2022:

These events are consistent with the broader 2022 commodity price shock linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and energy cost inflation. View volatility data. The Belarus import price shock is noteworthy: imports from Belarus surged in both volume and price during and after 2022, despite — or perhaps because of — the geopolitical environment. Belarus showed the highest import-side volatility of any partner (CV = 1.50), along with Indonesia (CV = 1.13) and Ukraine (CV = 0.91), all pointing to the structural fragility of emerging tropical and Eastern European supply links.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's external trade in edible fat mixtures (CN 151790) underwent three principal transformations:

1. Net export consolidation: The EU widened its trade surplus from €165 million to €376 million, driven more by price appreciation (+62% on export unit values) than by volume gains (+16%). Domestic production expanded by 29% in volume and 132% in value, underpinning a growing export propensity (12.8% → 30.3%).

2. Geographic realignment: The import side diversified dramatically (HHI from 3,351 to 1,425), with Belarus, Indonesia, and Ukraine emerging as major new suppliers. On the export side, the United States and Norway surged while Russia halved its imports from the EU — a clear reflection of the post-2022 geopolitical environment. The UK remained the EU's single largest export market.

3. Product mix migration: Fluid mixed vegetable oils (15179091) became the dominant import and a growing export line, while specialised products with higher milkfat content (15179010) nearly vanished from imports. The 2022 commodity price shock left a durable mark on pricing across all sub-product lines.

Looking ahead, key risks include continued volatility in tropical oil supply chains, the geopolitical status of Belarus and Ukraine as suppliers, and the sensitivity of the booming US export market to regulatory or tariff changes. The EU's structural position remains strong, but its growing openness to non-traditional suppliers introduces new dependencies that bear monitoring.