Market evolution: Cereal and pastry preparations (CN 19) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; pastrycooks' products (CN 19) from 2015 to 2025. The category encompasses a wide range of products, including pasta, bread, biscuits, prepared breakfast cereals, and food preparations based on milk or starch. Over the decade, the EU has solidified its position as a major global exporter in this sector, experiencing robust growth in export value that outpaced import growth, leading to a substantial and expanding trade surplus. This expansion occurred alongside significant shifts in trading partnerships, internal specialization patterns, and periods of notable market volatility.
1. Robust Export-Led Growth and a Widening Trade Surplus
The period 2015–2025 was characterized by strong growth in the EU's external trade for CN 19 products. The Union demonstrated a pronounced export-oriented profile, with the value and volume of outbound shipments growing at a faster rate than imports, resulting in a consistently positive and expanding trade balance.
Overall trade volumes and values expanded significantly
Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU extra-EU exports for CN 19 grew by 74.9%, rising from approximately €13.35 billion to €23.35 billion. Import values also increased substantially, by 72.6%, from €2.60 billion to €4.49 billion. In terms of quantity, export volumes grew by 32.3% (from 4.74 million tonnes to 6.27 million tonnes), while import volumes increased by 45.2% (from 1.16 million tonnes to 1.68 million tonnes). The faster value growth relative to quantity growth points to rising unit prices across the period.
The EU's trade surplus nearly doubled in value
The EU maintained a significant structural trade surplus in this product category throughout the period. The surplus grew from €10.75 billion in 2015 to €18.86 billion in 2025, an increase of 75.4%. This trend underscores the sector's competitive strength on global markets, where the EU consistently exported goods valued at several times more than its imports (General Overview).
Key EU member states drove the export surge
The growth in exports was led by several major member states. Italy and Belgium were standout performers, with export value growth exceeding 100% (104.6% and 138.8%, respectively). Poland also saw exceptional growth of 208.9%, while traditional powerhouses like the Netherlands, France, and Germany recorded strong growth between 41.7% and 73.5%. On the import side, the Netherlands (145.2%) and Germany (81.2%) recorded the largest increases among the top importers (General Overview).
2. Shifting Geographical Patterns and Evolving Market Structure
The geographical landscape of EU trade in CN 19 underwent notable changes, marked by the relative decline of some traditional partners and the rapid ascent of others. Concurrently, the internal market structure saw a decrease in import partner concentration and clear patterns of national specialization.
The United Kingdom remained the primary partner, but new growth frontiers emerged
The United Kingdom was, by a large margin, the EU's single largest trading partner for CN 19, both as a destination for exports (€6.14 billion in 2025) and a source of imports (€1.71 billion). However, the most dynamic growth occurred elsewhere. EU exports to the United States surged by 202.5% to €2.53 billion, making it the second-largest market. Similarly, exports to China grew by 92.1% to €2.69 billion. On the import side, the most dramatic increases came from Ukraine (+618.9%), China (+199.1%), and Türkiye (+183.9%), reflecting a diversification of supply sources (General Overview).
Import source concentration decreased markedly
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell by 45.1%, from 3,166 in 2015 to 1,739 in 2025, indicating a significant diversification of the EU's import base. This reduced reliance on a few key suppliers enhances the sector's resilience to country-specific supply shocks. In contrast, the HHI for exports remained relatively stable and low (around 1,000), consistent with the EU exporting to a broad range of global markets (Market Structure).
Internal EU specialization reveals a core of competitive producers
Within the EU, export specialization for CN 19 products is highly uneven. In 2025, members with the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) included Latvia, Italy, Greece, and Croatia. Italy, in particular, combined a high specialization score with a dominant share (14.0%) of total EU production value, making it the bloc's engine for exports in this sector. At the other end, countries like Malta, Cyprus, and Finland showed negative specialization, indicating they are net importers of these products relative to their overall trade profile (Market Structure).
3. Price Volatility and the 2022 Supply Shock
The CN 19 market was not immune to the global turbulence of the early 2020s. While the long-term trend was growth, the period experienced significant price volatility, culminating in pronounced price shocks in 2022 for several key trade flows.
Stable long-term partners coexisted with volatile niche markets
Trade volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), varied widely by partner. For both exports and imports, trade with the United Kingdom and Switzerland was relatively stable (CVs around 0.09–0.14). In contrast, flows involving partners like Ukraine (imports, CV: 0.41), Serbia (imports, CV: 0.62), and Singapore (imports, CV: 0.77) exhibited much higher volatility, reflecting the sensitivity of these smaller or more geopolitically sensitive trade flows (Volatility & Shocks).
2022 stands out as a year of acute price shocks
A cluster of abnormal price events was detected in 2022. The most significant was a 44.4% price shock in exports to South Africa, with an abnormality score of 56.1. Price shocks were also detected in imports from Serbia (+17.3%) and exports to the United Arab Emirates (+27.7%) in the same year. These shocks are consistent with the global inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions stemming from the post-pandemic recovery and the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, which heavily impacted agricultural and food commodity markets (Volatility & Shocks).
Production growth underpinned long-term resilience
Despite volatility, EU domestic production provided a solid foundation. Production value in the CN 19 sector doubled from €64.9 billion in 2015 to €130.2 billion in 2025, while production quantity increased by 36.4% to 48.2 billion kilograms. This strong domestic capacity growth, coupled with an expanding export propensity (from 6.0% to 17.3% of production), suggests the industry effectively scaled to meet both domestic demand and global market opportunities (Market Structure, Autonomy & Vulnerability).
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in cereal and pastry preparations (CN 19) demonstrated robust health and expanding global influence. The sector's story is one of dynamic export growth, which fueled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. This growth was geographically broad, with traditional ties to the UK remaining paramount while new partnerships, especially with the US and China, surged in importance.
The market structure evolved toward greater diversification and resilience. The sharp decline in import concentration (HHI) reduced dependency risks, while clear internal specialization—with Italy as the linchpin—highlighted the competitive strengths within the bloc. Finally, the period tested the market's resilience through volatility, particularly in 2022 when global shocks caused significant price spikes. However, the sector's strong underlying domestic production growth and expanding export orientation suggest a fundamental capacity to weather such disturbances. The EU has consolidated its role as a leading global supplier of these value-added food products, with a trade profile that is increasingly broad-based and competitive.