Market evolution: Cocoa and cocoa preparations (CN 18) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of Cocoa and Cocoa Preparations (customs code 18) for the European Union with non-EU partners from 2015 to 2025. The sector encompasses raw cocoa beans, intermediate products like paste and butter, and finished consumer goods such as chocolate. Over the decade, the EU cocoa trade landscape was characterized by robust value growth, a structural shift towards greater import dependency, and significant price inflation, particularly in the final years of the period. The analysis is based on annual trade data and aims to identify the primary trends shaping this critical agricultural and food processing sector.

1. The Great Inflation: Unprecedented Value Growth Driven by Price Surges

The period witnessed a dramatic expansion in the monetary value of EU cocoa trade, far outpacing the modest growth in physical volumes, signaling a profound price-driven inflation.

• Explosive value growth on both sides of the trade ledger: EU imports grew from €7.30 billion in 2015 to €21.89 billion in 2025, a 199.9% increase. Exports grew from €6.95 billion to €16.22 billion (+133.2%). This differential growth transformed the EU's trade balance from a minor deficit of €-346 million in 2015 to a substantial deficit of €-5.68 billion by 2025.
• Volume growth was modest compared to value: Import quantities increased only 10.4% (from 2.27 million tonnes to 2.50 million tonnes), while export quantities rose 19.1% (from 1.51 million to 1.80 million tonnes). The vast majority of the value increase is therefore attributable to higher unit prices.
• A global commodity price shock is evident: The average price per tonne for imports and exports roughly doubled or more between 2015 and 2025. For imports, it rose from €3,218/t to €8,745/t (+171.8%). For exports, it increased from €4,611/t to €9,027/t (+95.8%). This points to a major global supply-side crisis or cost push affecting the entire cocoa value chain.

2. Geographic Re-alignment: Deepening Ties with West Africa and Strengthening Internal EU Hubs

The EU's sourcing of raw materials became more concentrated in traditional West African producers, while intra-EU trade solidified the position of key member states as processing and re-export hubs.

• West African suppliers dominate and grow massively: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon together accounted for the vast majority of EU cocoa bean imports. Their combined import value grew by over 180% on average, with Nigeria (+373.3%) and Cameroon (+373.1%) seeing the most explosive growth. This confirms the EU's heavy reliance on the Cocoa Belt.
• The Netherlands cemented its role as the EU's central gateway: The Netherlands was the top EU importer by value (€8.80 billion in 2025, up 201.9% from 2015) and also the top exporter (€4.46 billion, up 194.6%). This highlights its function as the primary entry point for raw cocoa and a major exporter of processed cocoa products and chocolates.
• Export markets diversified but remained concentrated: The United Kingdom remained the top destination for EU exports, growing by 89.7%. However, faster growth was recorded in the United States (+228.3%), Ukraine (+502.8%), and Türkiye (+260.2%), indicating efforts to diversify beyond traditional European markets.

3. Structural Vulnerabilities: Rising Import Reliance and Supply Chain Fragility

Despite being a major processor, the EU's net dependency on imported cocoa materials deepened, exposing its supply chain to volatility from a concentrated source region.

• Net import reliance worsened significantly: The EU's net import reliance (a measure of dependency) deteriorated from -5.9% in 2015 to -22.7% in 2025. This indicates that while the EU exports substantial finished cocoa products, its need for imported raw materials (cocoa beans) has grown disproportionately.
• Supply concentration presents a risk: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners by value remained high (around 1,817 in 2025), indicating a concentrated supplier base. This concentration, primarily in West Africa, makes the EU susceptible to regional shocks such as adverse weather, political instability, or export policies.
• Trade volatility is pronounced with key partners: The coefficient of variation (a measure of volatility) for imports from major suppliers like Ecuador (0.37) and Guinea (0.61) was notably high. While the largest partners (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana) showed lower volatility, the sheer scale of their trade volumes means any disruption would have a massive impact.
• Finished product segments led the export surge: While the EU imports vast quantities of raw cocoa beans (CN 1801), its export growth was particularly strong in higher-value segments. For instance, the export value of cocoa butter (CN 1804) grew by 211.2%, and cocoa powder (CN 1805) grew by 301.3%, underscoring the EU's role in adding value further down the chain.

Conclusion

The EU cocoa market between 2015 and 2025 underwent a transformation marked by hyper-inflation in value terms, driven by surging global prices. The bloc's dependence on imported raw materials intensified, creating a larger structural trade deficit despite strong export growth in processed products. Geographically, trade links with West African producers deepened, while the Netherlands reinforced its position as the EU's indispensable cocoa hub. These trends highlight a key tension: the EU is a global leader in cocoa processing and confectionery exports, yet its entire industry rests on an increasingly expensive and concentrated supply of raw beans from a few vulnerable regions. Future market stability will depend on supply diversification, price hedging, and the resilience of the West African cocoa sector.