Market evolution: Oil seeds and grains (CN 12) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the European Union's trade in oil seeds, oleaginous fruits, and related products (Combined Nomenclature code 12) from 2015 to 2025. The data covers trade with non-EU countries and reveals a period of significant structural change, marked by a deepening trade deficit, a major shift in import sources, and periods of acute price volatility driven by global events. The analysis focuses on the broad aggregate, encompassing soya beans, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, fodder, and other products within this category. The findings are based exclusively on the provided trade statistics and dashboard data.
1. From Near Balance to Deep Deficit: A Structural Shift in EU Trade
The period under review witnessed a dramatic deterioration in the EU's trade balance for CN 12 products. What was a near-balanced trade position in 2015 transformed into a substantial and growing deficit by 2025, underscoring the bloc's increasing reliance on external sources for these critical agricultural commodities.
- The EU's trade deficit in value terms expanded from -€6.5 billion in 2015 to -€8.6 billion in 2025, a worsening of over 32% (General Overview).
- A more nuanced measure, the net import reliance, tells a starker story. It shifted from a slight positive value (+53.0% in 2020) to a high of 51.9% in 2025, indicating that over half of the EU's apparent consumption is met by imports.
- This deficit is driven by import volume and value growth outpacing that of exports. Over the full period, import values rose by 49.8% to €14.4 billion, while export values increased by 86.3% to €5.8 billion, a faster rate but from a much smaller base.
The core of this deficit lies in the composition of trade. The EU is a massive importer of primary oilseeds—especially soya beans (CN 1201)—to feed its livestock and biofuel industries, while its exports are dominated by higher-value processed or specialized products like sowing seeds (CN 1209) and fodder (CN 1214).
| Metric (2015 → 2025) | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance (EUR) | -€6.5bn → -€8.6bn | -32.2% |
| Net Import Reliance | ~0% → 51.9% | +8763.9% |
| Import Value | €9.6bn → €14.4bn | +49.8% |
| Export Value | €3.1bn → €5.8bn | +86.3% |
2. Geographical Reorientation and Concentration of Supply Sources
The EU's import sourcing for CN 12 products underwent a significant geographical shift between 2015 and 2025, characterized by the rising importance of the Black Sea region and Australia, while the supplier base became slightly less concentrated by value.
- Traditional suppliers Brazil and the United States remained the top two sources, but their share of EU import value saw more modest growth (20.2% and 19.5% respectively) compared to emerging partners (General Overview).
- The most dramatic shifts were from Ukraine, Australia, and Canada. Ukrainian imports surged by 137.4% in value, rising from a sixth-ranked to a third-ranked supplier, reflecting its growing role as a key oilseed producer. Australian imports grew by 191.1%, and Canadian imports by 145.9%.
- Paraguay stands out as a major loser, with its exports to the EU collapsing by 86.0% over the period.
- The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value decreased slightly from 1182 to 1077, indicating a modest diversification in supplier value. However, the HHI for import volume increased, suggesting that while monetary value is more spread out, physical quantities may be becoming more concentrated.
| Top Import Partners (Value) | 2015 (€ bn) | 2025 (€ bn) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 2.01 | 2.42 | +20.2% |
| United States | 2.18 | 2.61 | +19.5% |
| Ukraine | 0.66 | 1.56 | +137.4% |
| Australia | 0.58 | 1.70 | +191.1% |
| Canada | 0.61 | 1.51 | +145.9% |
| Argentina | 0.47 | 0.76 | +62.7% |
| Paraguay | 0.45 | 0.06 | -86.0% |
3. Price Volatility and External Shocks
The decade was punctuated by periods of high price volatility, with the most severe shock occurring in 2022, aligning with global geopolitical and supply chain disruptions. This volatility highlights the EU's exposure to external market dynamics.
- Price volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation across partners, was particularly high for imports from Paraguay (1.34), Uruguay (1.03), and Canada (0.51), and for exports to Serbia (0.74), Republic of Korea (0.65), and Türkiye (0.63).
- The data identifies the most significant supply and price shock events. A major price shock centered on 2022 is evident in EU exports to the Russian Federation, with an abnormality score of 256.0 and a shift of +293.8%, coinciding with the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent trade disruptions.
- A concurrent, though less extreme, price shock is noted in imports from Ukraine in 2021 (abnormality 23.2, shift +50.2%), preceding the major war-time disruptions to Ukrainian exports. These events caused a spike in the EU's average import price for CN 12 from a low of €461/t in 2016 to a peak of €757/t in 2022, before receding to €592/t in 2025.
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in oil seeds and grains evolved towards a structurally more dependent and volatile position. A persistent and growing trade deficit emerged, driven by the EU's massive requirement for imported oilseeds like soya beans. Geopolitical and market forces led to a notable diversification of import sources, with countries like Ukraine, Australia, and Canada gaining ground at the expense of others like Paraguay. Finally, the market proved highly susceptible to external shocks, with the events of 2022 causing a dramatic price spike that temporarily reshaped trade values. These trends point to a sector where strategic vulnerabilities related to supply security and price stability have become more pronounced over the past decade.