Market evolution: Fodder roots and forage (CN 1214) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of combined nomenclature code 1214 — covering swedes, mangolds, fodder roots, hay, alfalfa, clover, sainfoin, forage kale, lupines, vetches and similar forage products, whether or not in pellet form — for the European Union in its trade with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The EU occupies a dominant position as a net exporter in this market, with export volumes roughly 30 times larger than imports in 2015 and still about 33 times larger by 2025. However, the decade was far from static: a pronounced commodity price shock in 2022, a structural shift in trading partners, and a significant rise in import volumes all mark this period as one of notable transformation. The analysis below is built on the General Overview, concentration and specialisation data, volatility and shock indicators, and vulnerability metrics.

1. A Powerful but Cyclical Export Machine Anchored in Southern and Eastern Europe

The EU's external trade in forage products is overwhelmingly an export story. Across the 2015–2025 window, export values ranged from a trough of approximately €292 million (2017) to a peak of €735 million (2022), while imports never exceeded €37 million. The trade balance remained solidly in surplus throughout, declining modestly from €372 million in 2015 to €358 million in 2025 — a change of only –3.6%. Yet beneath this headline stability lies a pronounced cycle of boom, shock, and correction.

Export volumes peaked in 2021 and have not fully recovered

The EU exported 1.90 million tonnes of forage products in 2015, a figure that rose steadily to 2.48 million tonnes in 2021 before falling sharply. By 2024, volumes had dropped to just 1.33 million tonnes — the lowest point in the entire decade — before a partial recovery to 1.66 million tonnes in 2025. This represents a net decline of 12.6% over the period. The dip below pre-2015 levels suggests a structural rather than merely cyclical adjustment.

Sources: derived from General Overview and product segment breakdown.

EU production expanded, but export propensity contracted

EU production of forage products grew by 22% in volume (from 1.10 billion kg to 1.34 billion kg) and by 23% in value over the decade. Yet the export propensity — the share of production directed to non-EU markets — fell from 64.7% to just 30.2%, a decline of 53.4%. This means that although the EU is producing more forage, a much smaller proportion is leaving the bloc. Rising domestic livestock feed demand, hay storage for energy markets, or simply price-driven shifts in where output is consumed may explain this divergence.

Spain anchors EU exports, but Italy has receded

EU Member State specialisation data reveals that Spain is by far the bloc's leading exporter, accounting for €233 million in 2025 (up 12.4% from €207 million in 2015). Italy, the second-largest exporter in 2015 (€101 million), saw its shipments collapse to just €44 million by 2025 (–56.8%). Romania emerged as a significant player, growing from €13 million to €31 million (+136.6%). France, the most specialised EU country by revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 3.04), contributed €35 million in exports in 2025 — a steady but not dominant share.

2. The 2022 Shock: A Commodity Price Spike That Redrew the Market Map

The single most consequential event of the decade was the commodity price shock of 2022. The volatility and shock detection confirms multiple statistically significant price anomalies concentrated in that year, with ripple effects that persisted into 2023 and 2024.

Export prices nearly doubled in a single year

Between 2021 and 2022, the average EU export price for CN 1214 leapt from €216/t to €302/t — a 40% increase in one year. Prices continued to climb in 2023 to €310/t (the decade's maximum) before correcting to €246/t in 2024 and €231/t in 2025. Even at the end of the period, export prices remained 15% above their 2015 level. This inflation reflected broader global commodity pressures linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict, energy costs, and supply-chain disruptions that affected agricultural inputs worldwide.

The United Arab Emirates: a shock epicentre

The most extreme shock event detected was a price shock in exports to the United Arab Emirates centred on 2022, with an abnormality score of 48.4 and a year-on-year price shift of +54.6%. The UAE alone accounted for 48.6% of total export value at that time. Despite this spike, the UAE's share has since fallen dramatically: its import value dropped from a peak of €296 million (2018 or nearby) to €94 million in 2025, a decline of 55.6%. This represents a structural loss of a dominant buyer, likely reflecting both the price shock's deterrent effect and the UAE's own efforts to diversify suppliers.

China and Japan also experienced abnormal price spikes

Two further detected shock events centred on 2022:

• China: an abnormality of 23.7 and a price shift of +69.7%, representing 12.1% of export value. EU exports to China had already been volatile (coefficient of variation of 0.57) and fell from €38 million (2015) to €21 million (2025, –44.4%).
• Japan: an abnormality of 12.9 and a price shift of +45.2%, with 4.4% of export value. Interestingly, Japan's imports from the EU grew from €8 million to €20 million (+137.6%) over the full period, suggesting it remained a growth market despite the shock.

These three shock events — all concentrated in the same year — indicate that the 2022 disruption was systemic rather than market-specific.

3. Diversifying Destinations and a Rising Import Footprint

While the EU's export performance grabbed headlines, a quieter but equally important structural shift was taking place on the import side and in the composition of the EU's trading partners.

Export market concentration fell by over 60%

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value declined from 3,347 in 2015 to 1,254 in 2025 — a fall of 62.5%. A value above 2,500 is typically considered highly concentrated; by 2025, the EU's export market structure had moved into moderately concentrated territory. This was driven by the UAE's declining dominance and the simultaneous rise of Saudi Arabia (from €26 million to €70 million, +165%), Jordan (from €10 million to €27 million, +164%), Japan (from €8 million to €20 million, +138%), and the United Kingdom (from €10 million to €16 million, +54%). Switzerland remained a stable, high-value partner at approximately €40 million throughout.

Source: top partners by value — exports.

EU imports of forage products more than doubled

Though small in absolute terms, the EU's import bill grew by 143% — from €10.5 million (2015) to €25.7 million (2025) — while import volumes grew by 146% (from 20,335 t to 50,065 t). The peak year was 2023, when imports reached €37 million and 64,604 t. The import price remained broadly stable, fluctuating between €362/t and €606/t without a clear trend, ending near €512/t.

The sources of imports shifted markedly:

• Russia went from a marginal supplier (€822,000 in 2015) to the second-largest import origin (€5.7 million in 2025, +589%). This occurred despite geopolitical tensions, though the trend may reverse with sanctions.
• Serbia surged from virtually zero (€2,386 in 2015) to €3.4 million in 2025, representing the most dramatic percentage increase of any partner (nearly +143,000%).
• Ukraine more than doubled from €1.2 million to €3.0 million (+160%), likely reflecting both competitive pricing and EU trade facilitation measures.
• The United Kingdom remained the largest single import partner, growing modestly from €2.8 million to €3.2 million (+11.6%).
• North Macedonia collapsed from €295,000 to just €19,000 (–93.6%), suggesting a near-total loss of competitiveness or market access.

The import concentration HHI fell by only 7% (from 1,382 to 1,286), indicating that while new suppliers entered, the overall import base remained moderately concentrated.

The product mix shifted towards alfalfa pellets in imports

The segment-level breakdown reveals that the bulk of both exports and imports falls under subheading 121490 (general forage products excluding alfalfa meal and pellets). However, 121410 (alfalfa meal and pellets) played an increasingly important role in certain years. On the import side, alfalfa pellets surged to 13,073 t in 2017 and 15,574 t in 2020, before reverting to 3,426 t in 2025. On the export side, alfalfa pellet volumes grew from 391,292 t (2015) to a peak of 591,881 t (2021), before settling at 507,490 t in 2025 — representing 30.6% of total export volume, up from 20.6% a decade earlier. This growing share of processed pellets may reflect increasing demand from Middle Eastern and Asian markets where pelletised feed is preferred for logistical reasons.

Conclusion

The EU's forage products market (CN 1214) over 2015–2025 tells a story of resilience tested by turbulence. The bloc remains a powerful net exporter, with a trade surplus of €358 million in 2025 and export volumes of 1.66 million tonnes. However, the decade was defined by three key dynamics:

1. Volume contraction alongside value resilience: Export volumes fell 12.6% while values held steady, entirely due to higher unit prices. The 2022–2023 commodity shock pushed export prices to €310/t — nearly 50% above pre-2020 levels — and even the subsequent correction left prices above their pre-shock baseline.

2. A dramatic diversification of export markets: The collapse of the UAE as a dominant buyer and the rise of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Japan reshaped the EU's export geography. The export HHI halved, reducing concentration risk and creating a more balanced portfolio of trading partners.

3. Growing import volumes and the emergence of new suppliers: While the EU's import needs remain modest relative to exports, the 146% growth in import volumes signals a structural shift. The rise of Serbia, Russia, and Ukraine as import sources reflects both price competitiveness and evolving trade relationships at the EU's periphery.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of the EU's net-exporter status will depend on whether domestic production growth can keep pace with rising feed demand, how sanctions and geopolitical realignments reshape the Russian and Ukrainian supply routes, and whether the price correction of 2024–2025 stabilises or reverses. The 2022 shock demonstrated that even a market as traditionally stable as forage products is not immune to global commodity volatility.