Market evolution: Hops and lupulin (CN 1210) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union (EU) for CN 1210 (Hop cones and lupulin) between 2015 and 2025. The EU maintains a significant and growing trade surplus in this sector, driven by robust export growth to Asian markets and a dramatic increase in imports from the United States. The period is characterized by strong value growth outpacing volume growth, indicating rising prices, alongside notable shifts in trade partnerships and market concentration.
1. Robust Growth and a Strengthening Trade Surplus
The EU's trade in hops and lupulin expanded substantially over the decade, with the trade balance (exports minus imports) increasing by 51.5%. This growth was underpinned by significant increases in both export and import values, though the dynamics for each flow differed markedly.
1.1. Export Performance: Leading by Volume and Value
EU exports demonstrated strong and consistent growth. Export value increased by 71.3%, rising from €153.0 million in 2015 to €262.0 million in 2025. Export volume grew by 37.0% over the same period, from 19,653 tonnes to 26,920 tonnes. This indicates that price appreciation contributed significantly to the value growth, with the average export price rising by 25.0%.
1.2. Import Surge and Price Divergence
EU imports grew at a much faster rate, particularly in value terms. Import value surged by 175.2%, from €24.4 million to €67.2 million, while volume increased by 52.2% (from 2,198 to 3,345 tonnes). The most striking feature is the 80.9% rise in the average import price, which reached €20,099 per tonne in 2025—more than double the average export price of €9,734 per tonne. This price divergence reflects the EU's increasing importation of higher-value processed hop products (e.g., pellets, lupulin) from specialized suppliers.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (EUR) | 153,008,731 | 262,048,763 | +71.3% |
| Export Quantity (t) | 19,653 | 26,920 | +37.0% |
| Export Price (EUR/t) | 7,786 | 9,734 | +25.0% |
| Import Value (EUR) | 24,428,371 | 67,226,958 | +175.2% |
| Import Quantity (t) | 2,198 | 3,345 | +52.2% |
| Import Price (EUR/t) | 11,113 | 20,099 | +80.9% |
| Trade Balance (EUR) | 128,580,360 | 194,821,805 | +51.5% |
2. A Major Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships
The period saw a fundamental reshaping of the EU's key trading partners, characterized by the rising importance of the United States as an import source and China as an export destination.
2.1. The United States: Dominant and Growing Import Supplier
The United States solidified its position as the EU's primary source of hop imports. Imports from the U.S. grew by an extraordinary 381.8% in value, reaching €57.4 million in 2025 and accounting for the vast majority of the import growth. This reflects the strength of the U.S. hop industry in supplying the global craft brewing sector with specialized, high-alpha varieties.
Conversely, imports from the United Kingdom, the second-largest supplier in 2015, declined by 76.9%. Notably, imports from New Zealand saw a 1,264.7% increase, albeit from a low base, indicating growing niche demand for its unique hop varieties.
Top Partners by Value - Imports
2.2. Export Markets: Strengthened Ties with Asia
EU exports became more diversified towards Asian economies. China emerged as the fastest-growing major destination, with export value increasing by 302.5% to become the top export market by 2025. Exports to Japan also grew strongly (+110.9%). Traditional markets like Russia and the United States remained substantial but saw stagnation or slight declines in value share. Brazil represented a significant growth market for EU hops, with imports from the EU rising by 87.0%.
| Country (Imports to EU) | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 11,916,408 | 57,408,778 | +381.8% |
| United Kingdom | 10,949,681 | 2,526,838 | -76.9% |
| New Zealand | 326,115 | 4,450,483 | +1,264.7% |
| Australia | 492,998 | 1,848,438 | +274.9% |
| Ukraine | 230,671 | 629,300 | +172.8% |
| Country (Exports from EU) | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 13,287,417 | 53,480,386 | +302.5% |
| Japan | 18,943,338 | 39,951,241 | +110.9% |
| Russian Federation | 25,174,390 | 25,105,530 | -0.3% |
| United States | 22,728,130 | 22,303,350 | -1.9% |
| United Kingdom | 14,412,737 | 15,282,144 | +6.0% |
| Brazil | 8,817,607 | 16,489,164 | +87.0% |
3. Internal EU Dynamics and Market Structure
Within the EU, the hop trade is dominated by a few key Member States and is characterized by a clear product specialization, with rising import concentration highlighting a growing dependency.
3.1. Germany and Czechia: The EU's Export Powerhouses
Germany is the undisputed leader in EU hop exports, accounting for the majority of total value and growing by 61.7% to €188.8 million in 2025. Czechia, the second-largest exporter, more than doubled its export value (+149.1%) to €57.7 million. In contrast, several smaller Member States like Lithuania and Belgium saw volatile or declining export performances.
On the import side, Belgium emerged as the largest EU importer, with value increasing by 398.1% to €40.5 million. The Netherlands and Poland also saw very strong growth, reflecting their roles as logistical hubs and growing domestic demand.
Top Reporters by Value - Exports
3.2. Product Mix: Processed Hops Dominate Trade
The trade is overwhelmingly in processed forms (CN 121020: ground, powdered, pelleted hops and lupulin). In 2025, this sub-product accounted for 99.2% of export volume and 98.0% of export value. The share is similar on the import side, with CN 121020 representing 99.2% of import volume. This confirms the market's orientation towards value-added, standardized products for the brewing industry. Trade in fresh/dried whole hops (CN 121010) has declined significantly in both volume and value.
| Metric (2025) | CN 121020 (Processed) | CN 121010 (Whole) |
|---|---|---|
| Export Quantity (t) | 26,336 (99.2%) | 584 (0.8%) |
| Export Value (EUR) | 257,170,922 (98.1%) | 4,877,841 (1.9%) |
| Import Quantity (t) | 3,317 (98.0%) | 28 (2.0%) |
| Import Value (EUR) | 66,933,449 (99.6%) | 293,509 (0.4%) |
3.3. Rising Import Concentration and Price Volatility
The concentration of EU imports, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) on value, increased by 67.3% over the period. This rising concentration indicates an increased reliance on a smaller number of suppliers, primarily the United States, which poses potential supply chain risks. Export concentration remained low and stable, reflecting a diversified customer base.
The data also shows high volatility in some import relationships (e.g., with New Zealand, coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.07) and several detected price shocks in minor export markets (e.g., Morocco, Kenya), though these had negligible impact on overall EU trade flows.
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter of hops and lupulin while undergoing a significant transformation in its trade profile. The key trends are: (1) strong, price-driven growth in the overall trade surplus; (2) a fundamental shift in partnerships, with China and the U.S. becoming the paramount export destination and import source, respectively; and (3) an internal market dominated by Germany and Czechia, trading almost exclusively in processed hop products. The dramatic increase in import concentration, driven by U.S. shipments, and the persistent price premium for imported products are critical dynamics to monitor for future supply chain resilience and competitiveness.