Market evolution: Medicinal plants (CN 1211) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in products classified under customs heading 1211 — plants and parts of plants used primarily in perfumery, pharmacy, or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes — over the 2015–2025 period. The product scope covers a broad range of botanical raw materials, from ginseng roots and poppy straw to general-purpose medicinal and aromatic plants. The EU is a major importer of these products and simultaneously a significant re-exporter of processed or higher-value-added plant materials. Over the decade under review, the market underwent a pronounced structural shift: import values more than doubled while volumes grew far more modestly, indicating a decisive repricing of supply chains. This report identifies three principal dynamics: (1) a widening trade deficit driven by surging import costs, (2) a growing geographic concentration of sourcing with India as the dominant partner, and (3) diverging price trajectories across product subcategories that reveal changing demand and supply patterns.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by Import Price Inflation

1.1 The EU's structural deficit more than tripled in value

The EU consistently maintained a trade deficit in CN 1211 products throughout the entire period. In 2015, the trade balance stood at −€224 million. By 2025, it had widened to −€775 million, a deterioration of 246%. This expansion was not the result of a collapse in EU exports — which in fact rose from €161 million to €276 million (+71%) — but rather of a dramatic surge in import values, which grew from €385 million to over €1.05 billion (+173%).

1.2 Prices, not volumes, drove the import surge

The most striking feature of this period is the divergence between import volume and import value growth. While import quantities rose from approximately 100,225 tonnes to 137,279 tonnes (+37%), the average import price nearly doubled, climbing from €3,840 per tonne to €7,655 per tonne (+99%). This implies that the overwhelming majority of the value increase — roughly three-quarters — is attributable to price inflation rather than higher physical demand. Possible drivers include global supply chain disruptions (notably the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy crisis), currency fluctuations, and increased demand for natural and organic ingredients in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors.

1.3 Export prices also rose, but insufficiently to close the gap

EU exports also experienced significant price appreciation, rising from €5,756 per tonne to €9,620 per tonne (+67%). Export volumes, however, were essentially flat at around 28,000–29,000 tonnes. This suggests the EU's export strength lies in higher-value, processed, or quality-differentiated segments rather than bulk commodity trade. The export price premium over imports — approximately €2,000 per tonne in 2015, rising to nearly €2,000 per tonne by 2025 — indicates a consistent value-added pattern, though the gap narrowed as import prices converged upward.

Source: General Overview

2. Growing Import Concentration and the Rise of India as Dominant Supplier

2.1 India consolidated its position as the EU's primary sourcing partner

Among the EU's top import partners, India stands out as the most dynamic. Indian exports to the EU rose from €51 million in 2015 to €159 million in 2025, an increase of 210% — far outpacing any other supplier. India's share of total EU imports thus grew substantially, making it the single largest source of medicinal plants for the EU market. This reflects India's established role as a global hub for the cultivation and processing of Ayurvedic, herbal, and pharmaceutical-grade botanical raw materials.

2.2 Geographic concentration of imports increased markedly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 734 in 2015 to 1,174 in 2025 — an increase of 60%. While an HHI of 1,174 still qualifies as a moderately competitive market (well below the 2,500 threshold for high concentration), the upward trend is noteworthy. It indicates that EU procurement is becoming less diversified, with a growing share of imports flowing from fewer origins. This rising concentration heightens supply-chain vulnerability, particularly if key partners face domestic production constraints, export restrictions, or geopolitical disruption.

2.3 Most major suppliers grew, but with divergent trajectories

The table below summarises the evolution of EU imports from the seven largest partners:

Source: Top partners by value

China stands out as the only major partner whose exports to the EU were essentially flat in value terms (declining marginally by 2%). In contrast, Albania more than doubled its exports to the EU, reflecting the growth of the Western Balkans as a supplementary sourcing region for wild-harvested and cultivated medicinal herbs. The volatility analysis confirms that several partners exhibited significant trade fluctuations: Ukraine and Kenya showed the highest coefficients of variation in import flows (0.37 and 0.63 respectively), though their absolute volumes remain smaller.

2.4 Within the EU, Germany dominates both imports and exports

Among EU Member States, Germany accounted for the largest share of both extra-EU imports (€416 million in 2025, up from €144 million, +189%) and exports (€103 million, up from €68 million, +51%). The Netherlands and France also feature prominently in both flows, consistent with their roles as major trading hubs. Notably, Czechia experienced a remarkable 797% increase in imports (from €7 million to €66 million), suggesting the emergence of new processing or distribution activities in Central Europe.

3. Diverging Sub-Segment Dynamics: Bulk Medicinal Plants Versus Specialty Botanicals

3.1 The general medicinal plant category (CN 121190) accounts for the vast majority of trade

The product segment breakdown reveals that CN 121190 — the residual category encompassing all medicinal, aromatic, and insecticidal plants not elsewhere specified — dominates both imports and exports by a wide margin. In 2025, CN 121190 accounted for 136,340 tonnes of imports (99% of total import volume) and €1.04 billion in value (99% of import value). On the export side, CN 121190 represented 28,613 tonnes and €275 million. This subcategory is the engine of the entire heading and reflects the broad demand for herbal raw materials used in pharmaceuticals, dietary supplements, cosmetics, and traditional medicine.

3.2 Ginseng roots (CN 121120) command a massive price premium but represent tiny volumes

Ginseng roots (CN 121120) occupy a striking niche. While import volumes were modest — 275 tonnes in 2025, down from 229 tonnes in 2015 — the unit prices were extraordinarily high, averaging €27,766 per tonne for imports in 2025 (down from a peak of nearly €78,000/t in 2015). Export prices for ginseng were even higher, reaching €83,526 per tonne in 2025. This extreme premium reflects the high intrinsic value of ginseng as a luxury botanical ingredient, as well as the EU's role as a processor and re-exporter of refined ginseng products. However, import values for ginseng declined from €18 million to €8 million over the period, suggesting possible demand shifts or supply normalisation.

3.3 Poppy straw (CN 121140) experienced extreme volatility linked to regulatory dynamics

Poppy straw (CN 121140), used for the extraction of alkaloids such as morphine and codeine, displayed the most erratic trade patterns of any subcategory. Import volumes swung from nearly 1,842 tonnes in 2016 to essentially zero in 2020–2025 (1–2 tonnes), while import prices surged from €539 per tonne in 2016 to peaks above €14,000 per tonne in 2024. On the export side, a single anomalous spike occurred in 2017, when the EU exported 4,206 tonnes at €948 per tonne — a volume that dwarfed all other years. These fluctuations likely reflect the highly regulated nature of opiate precursor trade, with volumes dependent on pharmaceutical licensing cycles and supply quota decisions in producing countries (principally Turkey and Spain).

3.4 Emerging subcategories signal market evolution

Two smaller subcategories showed noteworthy trends:

• Bark of African cherry (CN 121160): Import data only begins in 2022, when 0.6 tonnes were recorded; by 2025 this had risen to 638 tonnes worth €69,000. This reflects the growing commercial interest in Prunus africana for prostate health supplements, despite CITES regulation.
• Ephedra (CN 121150): Import volumes were small but relatively stable (12–33 tonnes), with highly variable prices (from €1,134/t to €16,282/t). This mirrors the niche but persistent demand for ephedra-derived compounds in traditional medicine.

3.5 EU domestic production grew in value but lagged behind import price inflation

EU production of medicinal plants increased from 129 million kg to 153 million kg in quantity (+18%) and from €870 million to €1.55 billion in value (+78%) between 2015 and 2025. While this growth is substantial in value terms, the quantity increase was modest, suggesting that EU producers are shifting toward higher-value cultivated varieties or processing stages. The production value increase still falls short of the 173% rise in import values, indicating that the EU's import dependency for bulk medicinal botanicals is not diminishing.

Conclusion

The EU trade in medicinal plants (CN 1211) between 2015 and 2025 was characterised by a fundamental repricing of global supply chains. The trade deficit nearly tripled to −€775 million, driven overwhelmingly by a near-doubling of import unit prices rather than a proportional increase in volumes. India emerged as the dominant supplier, contributing to a measurable rise in import geographic concentration. Within the product mix, the broad category of general medicinal plants (CN 121190) accounted for virtually all trade, while specialty segments such as ginseng and poppy straw displayed distinct and often volatile dynamics shaped by high intrinsic value or regulatory constraints. Looking ahead, the continued growth of the nutraceutical and natural cosmetics industries is likely to sustain demand pressure, while supply risks linked to geographic concentration and climate-sensitive cultivation warrant close monitoring.