Market evolution: Raw groundnuts (CN 1202) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in raw groundnuts (Customs code 1202) over the 2015–2025 period. The analysis reveals a market characterized by a deepening structural trade deficit, increasing reliance on a concentrated group of suppliers, and a clear shift in trade flows following geopolitical events. While EU production of groundnuts has nearly doubled in volume, it remains insufficient to meet domestic demand, cementing the bloc's position as a major global importer.
1. A Deepening Import Reliance and Structural Trade Deficit
The EU's trade in raw groundnuts from 2015 to 2025 is defined by a growing import bill and a declining export performance, widening the negative trade balance. This trend underscores the bloc's increasing dependency on external suppliers to satisfy its demand.
The growing import appetite and its drivers
EU imports of raw groundnuts grew substantially in value from €727.9 million in 2015 to €1.027 billion in 2025, a 41.1% increase. This growth was driven by a combination of rising import volumes and increasing unit prices. Import quantities rose by 25.8%, from 554,152 tonnes to 697,305 tonnes. Concurrently, the average import price increased by 12.1%, indicating inflationary pressures or a shift towards higher-value products within the category.
The General Overview highlights that Argentina cemented its position as the dominant supplier, with its export value to the EU soaring by 73.5% to €662.3 million. Other suppliers like Egypt (+164.3%) and Brazil (+40.5%) also saw significant growth.
| Metric (Imports) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value (€ million) | 727.9 | 1,027.1 | +41.1% |
| Quantity (tonnes) | 554,152 | 697,305 | +25.8% |
| Price (€/tonne) | 1,313.5 | 1,472.9 | +12.1% |
A concurrent decline in export competitiveness
In contrast to the import trend, EU exports of raw groundnuts contracted sharply. The total export value fell by 30.2%, from €33.1 million to €23.1 million, while export volumes plummeted by 43.3%, reaching a decade-low of 13,902 tonnes in 2025. Despite the decline in volume, the unit export price increased by 23.0%, suggesting a potential shift in the product mix or niche market focus.
The loss was most acute in the United Kingdom, the EU's largest export destination, which saw imports from the EU fall by 65.9% over the period. This dramatic reduction is a key factor behind the overall export decline, as noted in the General Overview.
The widening trade deficit and its implications
The combination of robust import growth and collapsing exports resulted in the EU's trade deficit for raw groundnuts worsening by 44.5%, reaching over €1 billion by 2025. This persistent and growing deficit highlights the EU's structural dependency on external sources for this commodity, a situation quantified by the net import reliance, which remained above 83% throughout the period.
2. Increasing Concentration and Geopolitical Shifts in Trade Flows
The period witnessed a significant reconfiguration of the EU's trade partnerships for groundnuts, characterized by increasing concentration on the import side and dramatic geopolitical shifts on the export side.
Import sourcing: A market dominated by Argentina
The import market became substantially more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 32.9%, from 3,312 to 4,403, moving into a range indicative of a highly concentrated market. This is almost entirely due to Argentina's strengthened position, whose share of EU imports grew consistently.
The United States, the second-largest supplier in 2015, saw its exports to the EU decline by 47.8% by 2025. This loss was offset by gains from Argentina and other suppliers, as detailed in the Market Structure analysis.
| Rank | Import Partner (2025) | Value 2015 (€ million) | Value 2025 (€ million) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 381.8 | 662.3 | +73.5% |
| 2 | United States | 141.1 | 73.7 | -47.8% |
| 3 | China | 83.2 | 107.3 | +28.9% |
| 4 | Brazil | 40.7 | 57.1 | +40.5% |
| 5 | Egypt | 21.8 | 57.7 | +164.3% |
Export destinations: Geopolitical realignment
The EU's export landscape was dramatically reshaped by geopolitical events. The most striking change was the near-total collapse of exports to the Russian Federation, which fell from €5.5 million in 2015 to virtually zero by 2025 (-100%). This collapse was offset, though not fully, by a surge in exports to Ukraine (+804.0%) and Switzerland (+304.0%). The loss of the Russian market and volatility in other post-Soviet states like Serbia (-70.4%) and Belarus (-63.9%) contributed to a lower and more fragmented export footprint.
The Volatility & Shocks analysis detected a major price shock related to Russian Federation exports in 2018, a precursor to the full trade breakdown. This event underscores how non-market factors can disrupt established trade flows.
3. Domestic Production Growth Amidst Persistent Structural Vulnerability
Despite a significant increase in domestic production, the EU has not been able to reduce its net import reliance, indicating that production growth is merely keeping pace with, or slightly lagging behind, demand.
Significant but insufficient EU production growth
EU production of groundnuts (all CN 1202 subcategories) nearly doubled in volume, rising from 314,000 tonnes in 2015 to 600,000 tonnes in 2025, a 91.1% increase. However, the value of production remained relatively flat at around €1 billion, suggesting stable or deflated farmgate prices.
This growth is heavily skewed geographically. As per the Market Structure data, the Netherlands holds an exceptionally high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.70, making it by far the most specialized and productive Member State for groundnuts. Other significant producers include Bulgaria and Croatia, but many Member States have negligible production.
Enduring vulnerability and limited export propensity
The rise in domestic production has not materially altered the EU's strategic vulnerability. The net import reliance remained stubbornly high at 83.8% in 2025, virtually unchanged from 2015. This indicates that increased production is consumed domestically or used to substitute for some imports, but it is not sufficient to create a meaningful export surplus.
Furthermore, the trade intensity score of 92.9% confirms that the EU groundnut market is deeply integrated into global trade. However, the declining export propensity (from 58.7% to 52.2%) shows that a smaller fraction of its total production is being exported, reinforcing the narrative of a market where production gains are absorbed by domestic consumption.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU raw groundnut market evolved towards greater import dependency, increased sourcing concentration (primarily from Argentina), and a diminished, geographically realigned export profile. While domestic production nearly doubled in volume, it failed to reduce the bloc's critical import reliance, which hovered above 83%. Key disruptions, notably the near-total loss of the Russian export market, further reshaped trade flows. The data paints a picture of a large, import-dependent market with limited strategic autonomy, where production growth is outpaced by demand, and trade patterns are highly sensitive to supplier economics and geopolitical shifts.