Market evolution: Rapeseed (CN 1205) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the European Union's trade in rapeseed (customs code 1205) with non-EU countries over the period from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a decade of significant expansion in both import and export flows, characterized by a substantial deepening of the EU's trade deficit. This expansion was accompanied by major shifts in trade partnerships, increased price volatility, and pronounced supply shocks. The following sections detail these dynamics, interpreting the quantitative trends and identifying the key drivers behind the observed market evolution.

1. A Decade of Robust Growth and a Widening Structural Deficit

The EU's external trade in rapeseed grew substantially between 2015 and 2025, with imports outpacing exports, leading to a significantly larger trade deficit.

Trade value and volume expanded dramatically across the board

Over the period, the value of EU rapeseed imports increased by 181.5%, rising from €1.24 billion in 2015 to €3.48 billion in 2025. Import volumes (quantities) saw a parallel increase of 122.7%, growing from 3.11 million tonnes to 6.93 million tonnes. The value of exports also grew strongly, by 146.5% (from €173 million to €427 million), while export volumes rose by 96.9% (from 327,000 tonnes to 643,000 tonnes). Prices for both imports and exports increased by around 25-26% over the decade.

The EU's rapeseed trade deficit deepened significantly

As a direct consequence of faster import growth, the EU's trade balance in rapeseed deteriorated markedly. The deficit widened by 187.2%, expanding from -€1.06 billion in 2015 to -€3.05 billion in 2025. This underscores the EU's growing reliance on external suppliers to meet its rapeseed demand, which is primarily driven by the biofuel and vegetable oil industries.

2. Shifting Geographies: New Partners and Changing Concentration

The sources of EU rapeseed imports and the destinations of its exports underwent substantial restructuring, altering the market's concentration profile.

The composition of key import partners evolved, with Australia and Ukraine solidifying their roles

The top import partners saw major shifts in value. Australia remained the leading supplier, with its import value growing by 202.4% to become the single largest source by 2025. Ukraine also remained a major supplier (+81.5%). The most dramatic growth came from Canada, which saw a 632.4% increase in export value to the EU. Conversely, imports from the United Kingdom collapsed by 70.5%, reflecting post-Brexit trade realignments. New, smaller suppliers like Moldova (+5,435.5%) and Serbia (+739.6%) also emerged.

Table: Evolution of Top EU Rapeseed Import Partners (by value, € million)

The UK became the EU's dominant export market, while traditional outlets faded

EU export markets were reconfigured. The United Kingdom transformed from a minor destination to the overwhelmingly largest buyer, with the value of EU exports growing by 723.8%. In contrast, exports to Türkiye, a major destination in 2015, collapsed by 96.8%. Exports to Pakistan grew significantly (+327.5%), while flows to the United Arab Emirates and Canada virtually ceased.

Import concentration slightly decreased, while export concentration rose sharply

The concentration of EU imports, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) on value, saw a minor decrease of -4.0% (from 3,240 to 3,111), indicating a slight diversification of supply sources. In stark contrast, the concentration of exports increased by 55.9% (from 2,658 to 4,144), reflecting the growing dominance of the UK market. This created a structural vulnerability, with export revenues increasingly dependent on a single partner.

3. Price Volatility, Geopolitical Shocks, and Product-Specific Dynamics

The period was marked by significant price volatility, driven by concrete supply shocks, with distinct patterns observable for different rapeseed subtypes.

High volatility characterized trade with key partners, particularly for exports

Volatility analysis, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), shows that import flows from partners like Australia (CV 0.41) and Ukraine (CV 0.40) were moderately stable. However, exports were highly volatile, especially to markets like Canada (CV 3.28), the United Arab Emirates (CV 2.33), and Türkiye (CV 2.03). This indicates that EU export sales were prone to large year-on-year swings, often tied to occasional large deals or disruptions in destination markets.

Major price shocks in 2022 and 2019 reshaped market dynamics

The data reveals critical supply and price shocks. A price shock in 2022 from Australia (abnormality: 5.0, shift: +68.1%) and Ukraine (abnormality: 113.5, shift: +53.6%) coincided with the onset of the war in Ukraine, which disrupted Black Sea grain flows and triggered a global price spike. Earlier, a massive export price shock to Türkiye in 2019 (abnormality: 260.0, shift: +1,031.2%) suggests a possible anomaly or one-off large transaction.

Low erucic acid seeds dominate, but both segments experienced price surges

The product breakdown shows that low erucic acid seeds (120510) constitute the vast majority of trade. In 2025, they accounted for 94% of import value and 68% of export value. Prices for both subtypes peaked sharply in 2022. Import prices for 120510 hit a high of €710 per tonne in 2022 (from €397 in 2015), while 120590 import prices reached €633 per tonne. This confirms that the 2022 price shock was a broad-based market event.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's external rapeseed market expanded vigorously, driven by strong demand that fueled a near-tripling of the trade deficit. This growth was supported by a flexible and diversifying import base, with Canada emerging as a key new supplier alongside traditional giants Australia and Ukraine. However, export growth became dangerously concentrated on the UK market. The period culminated in a major stress test during 2022, where geopolitical conflict induced severe price shocks and amplified volatility, highlighting the market's sensitivity to supply chain disruptions. Looking ahead, the EU's rapeseed market remains structurally dependent on imports, with its resilience tested by an evolving and occasionally volatile global landscape.