Market evolution: Soya beans (CN 1201) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade in soya beans (CN code 1201, "Soya beans, whether or not broken") by the European Union with non-EU countries over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on official trade data, focusing on key metrics such as value, volume, prices, partner concentration, and volatility. The decade was characterized by significant price shocks, a major reorientation of import sources, and an overall increase in market concentration for both imports and exports.

Structural Shifts in Import Partnerships

The EU's sourcing of soya beans underwent a pronounced geographical realignment between 2015 and 2025, moving away from some traditional South American suppliers and towards a greater, though more volatile, reliance on Ukraine and a consolidation around Brazil and the United States.

The Rise and Strategic Importance of Ukraine

Ukraine's position as a supplier to the EU strengthened dramatically over the decade. In 2015, Ukraine was the fourth-largest partner by value, with imports totaling €135.7 million. By 2025, its value had surged by 362.3% to €627.3 million, making it the third-largest supplier by value. This growth is particularly notable given the high volatility of this trade relationship, as indicated by a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.53 for imports from Ukraine.

The Decline of Traditional South American Suppliers

In stark contrast, imports from Paraguay and Uruguay collapsed to near zero by 2025. Paraguay, which supplied €428.5 million worth of soya beans in 2015, fell to just €1,429 in 2025—a decrease of 100.0%. Similarly, imports from Uruguay fell from €295.9 million to €398 in the same period. This complete withdrawal likely reflects a combination of EU sustainability regulations and a strategic shift in sourcing by major agri-food corporations by value.

Brazil and the United States: The Consolidated Core

Brazil and the United States solidified their roles as the EU's primary suppliers. Brazil remained the largest partner throughout the period, with imports growing from €1.96 billion in 2015 to €2.30 billion in 2025 (+17.4%). The United States, the second-largest partner, saw its exports to the EU increase from €1.68 billion to €2.20 billion (+30.7%). Despite their dominance, trade with both countries exhibited significant price and volume volatility, with CVs of 0.22 and 0.17 respectively for import values by value.

Price Dynamics and Volatility

The period was marked by extreme price volatility, culminating in a major price shock in the early 2020s that reshaped trade values despite relatively stable physical volumes.

The 2021-2022 Price Spike and Its Aftermath

Import prices for soya beans (excluding seed) surged dramatically, peaking in 2022. The average price per tonne jumped from €334.81 in 2020 to a maximum of €595.08 in 2022, an increase of 77.7% within two years. This spike was a global phenomenon driven by supply chain disruptions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. By 2025, prices had corrected but remained above pre-shock levels, settling at €393.88 per tonne for total imports.

Decoupling of Value and Volume

A key trend is the increased sensitivity of trade value to price fluctuations rather than volume changes. Over the decade, the total quantity imported grew by only 5.0%, but the total value increased by 11.9%. This decoupling is evident in the product segment data: for the main category (120190), volumes were relatively stable (ranging between ~13.3 and ~15.1 million tonnes annually), while values fluctuated wildly between €4.66 billion and €8.32 billion for product segments.

Export Market Volatility

EU exports, though much smaller in scale, were even more volatile. The value of exports to Serbia, a key partner, experienced a price shock in 2020 with an abnormality score of 91.3 and a 390.9% price shift for export shocks. This underscores the niche and often unstable nature of the EU's export market for soya beans.

Market Concentration and Internal EU Dynamics

The concentration of both the import and export markets increased over the decade, while the roles of individual EU member states as gateways and re-exporters evolved significantly.

Increasing Market Concentration

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 2,835 in 2015 to 3,391 in 2025, indicating a market becoming more dominated by fewer partners. The concentration of export markets increased even more sharply, with the HHI soaring from 2,165 to 3,488, highlighting the growing dominance of a few destination countries for EU exports for concentration data.

Shifting Gateways: The Italian Example

Among EU member states, Italy's role as an importer transformed dramatically. Its share of total EU import value grew from €353.5 million in 2015 to €864.5 million in 2025, a 144.6% increase that made it the fourth-largest importing member state. This suggests a potential specialization or expansion of processing capacity within Italy for EU reporters.

The EU as a Niche Exporter and Specialization Hubs

The EU's exports, though dwarfed by its imports, showed considerable growth in certain corridors. Exports to Norway, for example, exploded by 8,055% in value, from €0.29 million in 2015 to €23.6 million in 2025. Specialization analysis reveals that certain member states, like Slovenia, Croatia, and Slovakia, exhibit high comparative advantage (RCA) in soya bean exports, acting as regional exporters within Europe's niche trade. Conversely, countries like Ireland and Bulgaria show virtually no specialization in this product for specialization data.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's soya bean market evolved under the pressure of price shocks and strategic realignments. The period is defined by three core dynamics: a decisive shift in import partnerships away from vulnerable South American suppliers towards a more consolidated, yet volatile, core of Brazil, the United States, and an increasingly important Ukraine; a profound increase in market concentration for both imports and exports; and a stark decoupling between stable physical volumes and highly volatile trade values. The 2021-2022 price spike served as a catalyst, reinforcing these trends and underscoring the EU's persistent exposure to global commodity market fluctuations and geopolitical risks in its food and feed supply chains.