Market evolution: Soya beans (CN 120190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union is one of the world's largest importers of soya beans, a critical input for animal feed and the food-processing industry. Over the 2015–2025 period, EU extra-EU trade in soya beans (excluding seed for sowing) was shaped by three major dynamics: a persistent structural trade deficit driven by massive import needs, a pronounced price shock in 2021–2022 linked to global commodity markets, and a significant reorientation of supply origins — most notably the collapse of South American secondary suppliers and the rapid rise of Ukraine as an EU source. This report examines EU-level trade flows, partner concentration, and volatility patterns to explain how the soya bean market evolved over the decade. All figures are drawn from EU trade data for CN 120190.

A Dominant Import Market with a Structural Deficit

EU imports dwarf exports by a factor of forty

Throughout the entire period, the EU operated a massive structural deficit in soya beans. In 2015, imports stood at nearly €5.0 billion (13.5 million tonnes), while exports reached only €86 million (214 thousand tonnes). By 2025, imports had grown to €5.6 billion (14.2 million tonnes) and exports to €145 million (309 thousand tonnes) — meaning the trade deficit widened from €4.9 billion to €5.4 billion. The trade balance overview shows that the deficit peaked at approximately €8.2 billion in the year of the commodity price spike (2022), before narrowing again.

Import value growth was largely price-driven

Over the full decade, EU import volumes rose by only 5.1% while import values increased by 12.0%, indicating that price effects accounted for the majority of value growth. The average import unit price moved from €369/t in 2015 to €393/t in 2025 (+6.6%), but this seemingly modest change masks a dramatic spike: the price trajectory reached a peak of €594/t in 2022 before retreating.

Exports remain marginal but are growing from a low base

EU exports of soya beans — largely intra-EU re-exports or niche seed-related flows — grew faster in percentage terms than imports (+68.6% in value, +44.2% in volume). The export unit price rose from €402/t to €470/t. Nevertheless, exports remained less than 3% of import value in 2025, confirming the EU's overwhelming net-importer status.

The 2022 Commodity Shock and Its Aftermath

Global price spikes translated directly into soaring EU import costs

The most visible event in the 2015–2025 data is the extraordinary price and value spike centred on 2022. EU import values surged to €8.3 billion that year — 67% above the 2015 baseline — while the import unit price hit €594/t, up 61% from 2015's €369/t. Import volumes simultaneously peaked at 15.1 million tonnes, the maximum of the entire period. This coincided with the global commodity price surge triggered by supply-chain disruptions and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The trade overview data confirms that the trade deficit hit its widest point (approximately −€8.2 billion) in that same year.

Prices normalised by 2025 but remained above pre-shock levels

By 2025, the import unit price had fallen back to €393/t — still above the 2015 level but well below the 2022 peak. Export prices followed a similar arc: they rose from €402/t to a peak of €674/t before falling back to €470/t. The volatility analysis highlights that price volatility was especially pronounced for secondary suppliers (Paraguay, Uruguay, Serbia), with coefficient-of-variation values exceeding 0.9, reflecting their intermittent or collapsing trade flows.

Specific shock events were detected for EU exports

Two notable supply-side shock events were identified in EU export data. The first was a Serbia-directed export price shock in 2020, with an abnormality score of 55.9 and a shift of +477%, suggesting a sudden surge in unit values to that market. The second was a UK-directed price shock in 2021 (+85% shift), possibly linked to post-Brexit trade adjustments and rising global prices. These shock events affected relatively small trade flows but illustrate how price volatility radiated through the EU's export channels as well.

Shifting Supply Origins: Brazil Consolidates, Ukraine Rises, South American Secondaries Collapse

Brazil and the United States dominated but followed divergent paths

Brazil remained the EU's largest soya bean supplier throughout the period, with imports rising from €1.96 billion in 2015 to €2.30 billion in 2025 (+17.4%). Its peak year saw €4.14 billion in imports. The United States, the second-largest partner, saw imports grow from €1.67 billion to €2.19 billion (+30.9%), with a peak of €3.18 billion. Together, these two origins accounted for the lion's share of EU supply. The partner data shows that their combined share grew as smaller suppliers exited.

Ukraine emerged as a major EU supplier by 2025

Perhaps the most striking structural shift was Ukraine's rise from €135 million in 2015 to €627 million in 2025 — a 364% increase and the highest value ever recorded for that origin in the dataset. This growth likely reflects both expanded Ukrainian production capacity and the EU's deliberate efforts to diversify supply chains. The EU–Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and the wartime trade-liberalisation measures introduced from 2022 onwards may have further facilitated this surge, making Ukraine the fourth-largest supplier by value in 2025.

Paraguay and Uruguay effectively disappeared from EU supply

In stark contrast, imports from Paraguay collapsed from €429 million (2015) to essentially zero (2025, −100%), and Uruguay followed the same trajectory from €296 million to near-zero. Both origins exhibited extremely high volatility coefficients (1.40 and 1.35 respectively), confirming that their trade was highly intermittent. This disappearance may reflect competitive displacement by Brazilian and US supply, shifts in South American domestic policies (e.g., Argentina's export-tax regime affecting regional flows), or quality and logistical preferences on the EU market.

Import concentration increased, signalling growing supplier dependence

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose from 2,840 in 2015 to 3,391 in 2025 (+19.4%), while the volume-based HHI climbed from 2,856 to 3,529 (+23.6%). Both values sit well above the 2,500 threshold commonly associated with a "highly concentrated" market. This increase reflects the exit of secondary South American suppliers and the growing weight of Brazil and the United States. Export concentration rose even more sharply (HHI from 2,270 to 3,580, +57.7%), driven by the growing dominance of Serbia and a handful of other neighbours as EU export destinations.

Within the EU, the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany remained the main entry points

The top EU Member State importers were the Netherlands (€1.46 billion in 2025), Spain (€1.22 billion), and Germany (€936 million) — all broadly stable or slightly declining from 2015 levels. Italy stood out with a 148% increase, reaching €855 million in 2025, suggesting a structural expansion of crushing capacity or feed demand in that country. On the export side, Croatia was the largest EU exporter (€60 million, +36%), followed by Romania (€31 million, +126%) and a rapidly growing Hungary (€12 million, +4,763%). These exporter trends point to the growing role of Central and Eastern European Member States in re-exporting or transiting soya beans to neighbouring non-EU countries such as Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in soya beans (CN 120190) was characterised by persistent and large-scale import dependency, a dramatic but temporary price shock in 2022, and a significant reconfiguration of supply origins. Import volumes grew modestly (+5.1%) but the trade deficit widened as prices rose, peaking at approximately €8.2 billion in 2022 before partially retreating. Brazil and the United States consolidated their dominance, while Ukraine emerged as a fast-growing fourth supplier (+364%). Conversely, Paraguay and Uruguay — once meaningful EU suppliers — collapsed to near-zero flows, and import concentration (HHI) rose to well above 3,000. The EU's soya bean market thus became simultaneously more expensive and more dependent on a narrower set of origins, a structural vulnerability that policymakers have sought to address through diversification initiatives, though the data suggests that concentration has continued to intensify rather than diminish through 2025.