Market evolution: Other oil seeds (CN 1207) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in CN 1207 — "Other oil seeds and oleaginous fruits" — a residual category covering products such as sesame seeds, mustard seeds, poppy seeds, cotton seeds, safflower seeds, melon seeds, and various other oilseeds not elsewhere classified. Because it excludes the dominant oilseed commodities (soya beans, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, groundnuts, copra, and linseed), CN 1207 captures a heterogeneous basket of niche but economically significant products. Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in this code grew substantially: imports rose by 55.9% in value and 65.5% in volume, while exports rose by 59.3% in value and 58.7% in volume. Yet the EU's structural trade deficit widened from €411 million to €636 million, driven primarily by a faster increase in import volumes relative to export volumes. The following sections unpack the main dynamics behind these aggregate trends.

For an interactive overview of the trade flows, see the General Overview dashboard.

1. Import Volume Growth Outpaces Exports, Widening the Trade Deficit

The EU's structural deficit deepened by over 50% in a decade

The EU has been a persistent net importer of CN 1207 products throughout the period. In 2015, the trade deficit stood at –€410.9 million; by 2025 it had expanded to –€635.9 million, a deterioration of 54.8%. This widening gap is almost entirely explained by the faster growth of import volumes (+65.5%) compared to export volumes (+58.7%), compounded by a decline in average import prices (–5.8%) relative to broadly flat export prices (+0.3%).

Import volumes accelerated sharply after 2020

Import quantities remained in a relatively narrow band of 339–355 kt between 2015 and 2020, before surging to 573 kt by 2024 and holding near that level in 2025 (571 kt). This post-2020 acceleration — a jump of roughly 60 kt in a single year (2020→2021) — coincided with the global commodity price boom of 2021–2022, during which average import prices peaked at €1,723/t in 2022. Despite the subsequent price correction, volumes have remained elevated, suggesting a structural increase in EU demand rather than a purely price-driven phenomenon.

Unit prices diverged between flows

Export unit prices stayed remarkably stable over the decade (ranging €1,258–€2,563/t), reflecting the higher-value-added nature of EU re-exports, which include processed and niche products. Import prices, by contrast, showed greater cyclical amplitude, dipping to €1,322/t in 2016 and peaking at €1,723/t in 2022 before retreating to €1,516/t in 2025. The net effect is that the EU now imports more tonnage at lower average unit values — a pattern consistent with increasing sourcing of bulk, commodity-grade oilseeds.

For the full time series, see the General Overview.

2. Partner Diversification and the Rise of Unspecified Origins

Traditional Asian suppliers lost ground while partner concentration fell sharply

China and India have been the EU's two largest named import partners throughout the period. However, both have seen significant declines in their share of EU import value:

This decline in the dominance of traditional partners is confirmed by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration, which fell from 1,294 in 2015 to 728 in 2025 — a 43.7% drop that signals a substantial broadening of the EU's supplier base. See the concentration analysis for details.

"Unspecified countries" emerged as the single largest reported import origin by 2025

The most striking structural shift is the explosion of imports attributed to "Countries and territories not specified for commercial or military reasons" — a residual confidentiality category in EU trade statistics. This source grew from just €1.6 million in 2015 to €185.6 million in 2025, a more than hundredfold increase. By 2025, it accounted for roughly one-fifth of total EU import value, surpassing all named partners. While the exact composition of this category cannot be verified from public data, such a sharp rise likely reflects a combination of increased use of confidential data suppression (as trade flows become more concentrated at the firm level) and possibly new sourcing arrangements routed through intermediary jurisdictions. This development significantly complicates any analysis of the EU's true supply dependencies in this product category.

Export markets diversified with strong growth in the Middle East and China

On the export side, the EU's top destinations also shifted. Saudi Arabia (+92.8%), Russia (+73.7%), and especially China (+547.6%) saw the largest value increases, while the United States (–7.0%) and the United Kingdom (+14.2%) grew more modestly. Export concentration also declined (HHI from 694 to 536, –22.8%), though less dramatically than on the import side, reflecting the EU's already more diversified export profile. The strong growth in Chinese demand — from €0.8 million to €5.4 million — may reflect niche European products (such as specialty seeds) finding new markets in Asia.

For the full partner breakdown, see top partners.

Volatility varied widely across suppliers, with occasional extreme price shocks

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values ranged from 0.10 (China, very stable) to 1.13 (Kazakhstan, extremely volatile). Argentina stood out with a CV of 0.90 and an extreme price shock in 2018, when import unit prices surged 88.8% (abnormality score 884.5). Paraguay experienced a similar shock in 2022 (+82.6%). These episodes are consistent with supply disruptions in South American oilseed markets driven by drought and currency volatility. On the export side, South Korea exhibited a CV of 1.58 and an extraordinary price spike in 2017 (+1,470.9%), though at a small value share (0.9%), suggesting a one-off high-value shipment rather than a systemic market event. See the volatility analysis and supply shocks dashboards.

3. Sesame Dominates Import Volumes While the Residual Category Surges

Sesame seeds and mustard seeds account for the bulk of import tonnage

The product segment breakdown reveals that two sub-headings — sesamum seeds (120740) and mustard seeds (120750) — together accounted for roughly 55–65% of total import tonnage in most years. In 2025, sesame seeds led at 133.5 kt (€236.6M) followed by mustard seeds at 96.4 kt (€58.7M). The residual "other" category (120799) was the third-largest by volume (144.7 kt in 2025), but notably it surged from 77 kt in 2015 — an 87.5% increase that makes it the fastest-growing segment in absolute tonnage terms.

Cotton seed imports have virtually disappeared while melon seed values skyrocketed

Two segments exhibited dramatic contractions or expansions. Cotton seed imports (120729) collapsed from 11.1 kt in 2015 to a negligible 50 tonnes in 2025, reflecting the near-total disappearance of the EU's cotton processing industry. Conversely, melon seed imports (120770) saw their value nearly triple from €34.4 million to €93.3 million despite tiny volumes (1.6 kt), implying extremely high unit prices (€59,301/t in 2025). This is consistent with the EU being a premium destination for specialty melon seeds used in confectionery and Asian cuisine, sourced primarily from China.

The residual category (120799) grew faster in volume than in value, implying a shift toward lower-unit-price products

The residual "other" category (120799) saw import volumes grow by 87.5% while import value rose by only 19.9%. Its average unit price fell from €2,889/t in 2015 to €1,847/t in 2025 (–36.1%), suggesting that the incremental volumes entering under this code are increasingly composed of lower-value bulk commodities rather than premium specialty seeds. This could reflect new entrants in oilseed processing sourcing cheaper raw materials, or a reclassification of products into the residual basket as new seed types gain commercial importance.

Poppy seed and mustard seed exports reflect Central European specialisation

On the export side, the EU's main segments by volume are cotton seeds (120729, 88 kt in 2025), poppy seeds (120791, 15.8 kt), and the residual category (120799, 18.4 kt). Poppy seed exports have been remarkably stable in volume (16–21 kt) and are concentrated in Central European member states — consistent with the well-known Czech and Austrian dominance in poppy cultivation. Meanwhile, export unit prices for the residual category (120799) remain elevated at €3,233/t in 2025, nearly double the import price, suggesting that EU exports in this segment are skewed toward higher-value, processed or specialty products.

Greece and Austria show the strongest export specialisation

Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 identifies Greece (RSCA 0.80, RCA 8.77) and Austria (RSCA 0.64, RCA 4.50) as the most specialised EU exporters in CN 1207, followed by Lithuania, Czechia, and Estonia. Greece's specialisation likely reflects its role as a Mediterranean sesame and specialty seed hub, while Austria's strength is rooted in poppy and pumpkin seed re-exports. At the other extreme, Ireland (RSCA –1.00) and Cyprus (RSCA –0.99) show virtually no export specialisation in this product category. See the specialisation analysis.

Denmark's import surge stands out as a potential data or structural anomaly

Among EU member states, the most striking single-country development is Denmark's import trajectory: from €2.9 million in 2015 to €187.1 million in 2025 (+6,339%). This extraordinary growth elevated Denmark to the position of the EU's largest importer of CN 1207 by value in 2025, overtaking the Netherlands (€179.6M) and Germany (€122.6M). Given Denmark's small agricultural base and population, this likely reflects either a major new processing facility routing bulk oilseed imports through Danish ports, a trade reclassification, or the consolidation of intra-EU distribution under Danish-based entities. Without PRODCOM production data (unavailable for this CN code), it is not possible to determine how much of this import volume is consumed domestically versus re-exported within the EU.

For the product segment breakdown, see the cross-section comparison.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in CN 1207 "Other oil seeds" has been characterised by three overarching dynamics: (1) a sustained expansion of import volumes that outpaced export growth, widening the trade deficit by over 50%; (2) a significant diversification of supply sources, offset by the growing opacity of trade data due to the rise of the "unspecified countries" confidentiality category; and (3) divergent segment-level trends, with the residual "other" category absorbing most of the volume growth at declining unit prices, while niche segments like melon seeds and poppy seeds maintained premium pricing.

The structural deficit is unlikely to close in the near term, given the EU's limited domestic production capacity for most oilseeds in this basket (sesame, safflower, cotton) and the continued growth of demand driven by food processing and health-food trends. The increasing reliance on unspecified-origin imports represents a transparency challenge for policymakers seeking to assess supply-chain risk. Meanwhile, the strong specialisation of certain member states — Greece in Mediterranean oilseeds, Austria and Czechia in poppy seeds — points to a structurally differentiated internal market where trade policy impacts will vary significantly by product and geography.