Market evolution: Unprepared cereal straw (CN 1213) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in unprepared cereal straw and husks (Combined Nomenclature code 1213) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers cereal straw and husks in unprepared form, whether or not chopped, ground, pressed, or in the form of pellets. Over the decade under review, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of this commodity, with trade volumes and values rising substantially. The analysis below draws on trade flows data at annual frequency and highlights the structural shifts in partner geography, price dynamics, and market concentration that shaped this market.

1. A decade of surging EU exports outpacing modest import growth

1.1 EU export value more than doubled while volumes nearly doubled

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of cereal straw expanded dramatically. According to the trade overview, export value rose from €56.1 million in 2015 to €134.6 million in 2025, a cumulative increase of 140%. Export quantities grew from 414,498 tonnes to 861,416 tonnes (+107.8%), implying that roughly half of the value increase came from higher volumes and the rest from price appreciation. Unit export prices edged up from €135 per tonne to €156 per tonne (+15.5%), with a peak of €181 per tonne recorded during the period.

1.2 Import growth was strong in volume but prices moved in the opposite direction

EU imports of cereal straw, while much smaller in absolute terms, also grew notably. Import value rose from €3.1 million to €5.7 million (+84.4%), and volumes climbed from 20,527 tonnes to 47,560 tonnes (+131.7%). However, unlike exports, import unit prices declined from €149 per tonne to €119 per tonne (−20.4%). This divergence — rising export prices alongside falling import prices — may reflect increasing demand pressure on EU-produced straw from overseas buyers (particularly in the Middle East and North Africa) while import suppliers competed aggressively on price.

1.3 The EU trade surplus widened substantially

The EU's trade balance in cereal straw expanded from €53.0 million to €129.0 million (+143.2%), reaching its period maximum in 2025. This confirms the EU's structural role as a net supplier of this commodity to global markets, a position that strengthened considerably over the decade.

2. Geographic diversification: MENA emerges as a key destination alongside Switzerland

2.1 Switzerland remained the dominant single partner but MENA markets grew fastest

The partner breakdown reveals that Switzerland was the EU's largest export destination throughout the period, absorbing €39.5 million in 2015 and €65.4 million in 2025 (+65.6%). Its share, however, eroded in relative terms as Middle Eastern and North African markets surged.

Morocco (+820%), Jordan (+701%), and the UAE (+1,369%) stand out as the fastest-growing destinations in percentage terms. South Korea essentially entered the market from near-zero in 2015 to become a €10 million destination by 2025. Qatar followed a similar trajectory, rising from a negligible €178 to €1.9 million. These dynamics are consistent with growing demand for animal feed and bedding material in arid, livestock-dependent economies with limited domestic cereal straw production.

2.2 The United Kingdom dominated EU imports, while Eastern European sources gained share

On the import side, the partner data shows that the United Kingdom was by far the largest supplier, accounting for €2.4 million in 2015 and €4.6 million in 2025 (+91.9%). The post-Brexit trade relationship clearly preserved strong cross-channel flows of cereal straw.

China, Belarus, and Ukraine all saw very large percentage increases (from low bases), suggesting a gradual reorientation of EU cereal straw sourcing. By contrast, imports from Russia (−82.2%), Serbia (−70.2%), and Switzerland (−92.2%) declined sharply. The collapse in Russian and Belarusian supply in the later years of the period likely reflects geopolitical disruptions related to the conflict in Ukraine and associated sanctions regimes.

2.3 Spain became the EU's leading exporter, overtaking France

Within the EU, the reporter data shows a notable shift in the internal hierarchy of exporters. Spain's exports surged from €14.9 million to €63.0 million (+324.2%), making it the EU's largest exporter by 2025. France, the 2015 leader at €19.8 million, grew more modestly to €36.7 million (+85.3%). Germany maintained a stable third position (€12.9M → €16.6M, +28.5%). Among smaller exporters, Bulgaria (+2,407%), Poland (+610%), and Italy (+209%) recorded the fastest growth.

On the import side within the EU, Ireland stands out with a remarkable increase from €231,000 to €4.0 million (+1,655%), suggesting growing domestic demand possibly linked to the Irish livestock sector. Most other EU importers (Netherlands, France, Germany, Belgium, Latvia) saw declines.

3. Market concentration and price volatility reveal structural tensions

3.1 Export markets diversified while import sourcing became more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of export concentration by value fell from 5,430 in 2015 to 2,847 in 2025 (−47.6%), indicating a significant diversification of export destinations. In 2015, exports were heavily concentrated toward Switzerland; by 2025, a broader set of MENA and Asian partners had reduced this dependency. The volume-based HHI tells a similar story, declining from 5,175 to 2,397 (−53.7%).

By contrast, import concentration by value increased from 6,224 to 6,751 (+8.5%), and import volume concentration rose from 6,649 to 8,610 (+29.5%). This suggests that the UK became an even more dominant import source over time, while previously diversified suppliers (Russia, Switzerland, Serbia) dropped out.

3.2 EU specialisation in cereal straw exports is driven by France, Spain, and Poland

According to the specialisation analysis, the EU members most specialised in cereal straw exports (as measured by the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage, RSCA) in 2025 were:

Lithuania exhibits the highest specialisation ratio (RCA of 4.30), though its absolute export share is small. France and Spain combine high specialisation with substantial absolute export shares, confirming their central role. At the other extreme, Greece (RSCA −1.00), Ireland (RSCA −0.998), and Croatia (RSCA −0.990) showed virtually no export specialisation, consistent with their limited straw export activity.

3.3 Price shocks were detected in key MENA export markets

The volatility analysis reveals that several EU export partners exhibited high price volatility (coefficient of variation above 1.0), including Morocco (CV = 1.11), South Korea (CV = 1.34), and Türkiye (CV = 1.70). By contrast, the largest partner, Switzerland, showed remarkably stable prices (CV = 0.11).

Two significant price shock events were detected:

• Saudi Arabia (2023): An extreme price shock with an abnormality score of 86.4 and a year-on-year price shift of +37.6%, representing 20.9% of EU export value. This coincided with the period of elevated global commodity prices and logistics costs following the post-pandemic recovery and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Morocco (2022): A price shock with abnormality of 4.0 and a price shift of +35.4%, accounting for 5.6% of EU export value. Morocco's rapid import growth likely exposed it to supply tightness and pricing pressure.

These shocks highlight the vulnerability of emerging MENA markets to price swings, potentially linked to seasonal supply-demand mismatches, logistics disruptions, and the broader inflationary environment of 2022–2023.

On the import side, volatile supply sources included the United States (CV = 2.49), China (CV = 1.42), Russia (CV = 1.24), Ukraine (CV = 1.21), and Belarus (CV = 1.20), all of which experienced large swings in trade values over the period.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in unprepared cereal straw (CN 1213) underwent a clear transformation. The EU significantly expanded its export footprint, with values more than doubling and volumes nearly doubling, while maintaining a growing trade surplus. The most striking structural change was the geographic diversification of export destinations: Switzerland remained the largest single buyer, but Middle Eastern and North African markets — notably Morocco, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar — emerged as major and fast-growing outlets, driven by the feed and bedding needs of livestock economies. South Korea also entered the market from a near-zero base to become a significant importer.

Internally, Spain displaced France as the EU's leading exporter, and several smaller Eastern European member states (Poland, Bulgaria) recorded outsized growth. On the import side, the United Kingdom consolidated its position as the dominant supplier, while traditional sources such as Russia and Switzerland saw steep declines — the former likely reflecting geopolitical disruptions.

The diversification of export markets brought welcome resilience (lower HHI concentration), but also exposed EU exporters to greater price volatility, as evidenced by the price shocks detected in Saudi Arabia (2023) and Morocco (2022). Import sourcing, conversely, became more concentrated, which may warrant attention from a supply-security perspective. Overall, cereal straw trade has evolved from a relatively niche, Switzerland-centric business into a genuinely global market, with the EU firmly positioned as the world's leading net exporter.