Market evolution: Soybean meal (CN 1208) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of EU customs code 1208 (Flours and meals of oil seeds or oleaginous fruits, excluding mustard) from 2015 to 2025. The product category is overwhelmingly dominated by soybean flour and meal (CN 120810). Over the analyzed decade, the EU’s trade position for this product underwent a fundamental transformation, shifting from a position of modest net import reliance to becoming a significant net exporter. This shift was driven by a dramatic surge in exports, particularly to one key partner, while import volumes contracted considerably. The following sections detail the main dynamics behind this structural change.

1. From Net Importer to Net Exporter: A Decade of Structural Shift

The period 2015-2025 was characterized by a complete reversal of the EU’s trade balance for oilseed meals. The bloc moved from a slight net import position to becoming a consistent and growing net exporter, altering its role in global markets.

1.1 The Collapse in Import Volumes

Total EU imports of CN 1208 products fell dramatically over the period. Import volume decreased by 60.9%, from 73,171 tonnes in 2015 to 28,622 tonnes in 2025 (General Overview). This decline occurred despite a 110.2% increase in the average import price (from €369/t to €775/t), indicating the contraction was volume-driven. The most severe decline was recorded from Ukraine (CV of 2.10) and the Russian Federation, with import values collapsing by 99.9% and 99.7% respectively, likely linked to geopolitical disruptions.

1.2 The Surge in Export Value and Volume

In contrast, EU exports experienced robust growth. Export volume increased by 25.3%, while export value grew by 52.0%, reaching €92.5 million by 2025 (General Overview). This combination of rising volumes and prices (21.3% increase) propelled the trade balance from a surplus of €33.9 million in 2015 to €70.3 million in 2025, a 107.6% improvement. The export propensity (share of production exported) also rose sharply from 1.5% to 5.2%, confirming the outward orientation.

1.3 Evolving Market Concentration and Specialization

The export market became more concentrated, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value rising by 21.1% to 4913 (Market Structure). This concentration was led by Italy and Greece, which, based on 2025 data, show the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), indicating strong export specialization in this product.

2. The Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships

The geographic landscape of EU trade for CN 1208 was redrawn over the decade, marked by the rise of a dominant export destination and a significant reshuffling of import suppliers.

2.1 Switzerland Emerges as the Preeminent Export Partner

The most striking development was the exponential growth in exports to Switzerland. Swiss import value from the EU surged by 627.2%, from €8.5 million in 2015 to €62.0 million in 2025 (General Overview). This single partner accounted for 86.8% of the value in the detected price shock event for EU exports in 2022, highlighting its pivotal role. Conversely, exports to Türkiye, once the largest market, virtually vanished (-99.7%).

2.2 The UK Remains a Key but Declining Import Source

The United Kingdom was the largest source of EU imports in 2015 but its share diminished significantly. Its import value fell by 64.6% over the period (General Overview). Despite this decline, the UK remains the second-largest export destination for the EU, with the value rising by 70.7%.

2.3 The Rise of Serbia and the Collapse of Eastern European Suppliers

Serbia solidified its position as the second-largest import source, with import value growing by 118.0% (General Overview). This occurred simultaneously with the near-complete withdrawal of supplies from Ukraine and Russia. Import concentration by volume became slightly more pronounced (HHI increased by 15.8%), suggesting a more consolidated supplier base in the latter part of the period.

3. Divergent Paths of Soy vs. Non-Soy Segments

The aggregated trade data masks a critical divergence between the two sub-categories under CN 1208: soybean meal (120810) and other oilseed meals (120890).

3.1 Soybean Meal (120810): The Engine of Export Growth

The soybean meal segment drove the overall expansion in exports. Its export volume grew nearly six-fold, from 22,256 tonnes in 2015 to 129,489 tonnes in 2025 (Product Segment Breakdown). Export value for this segment increased by 424.7%, from €13.6 million to €71.5 million. Notably, import volumes of soybean meal also declined, but less drastically (-36.6% to 27,039 tonnes).

3.2 Non-Soy Oilseed Meals (120890): A Market in Severe Contraction

The non-soy segment experienced a collapse, particularly in imports. Import volume of 120890 products plummeted by 94.8%, from 30,482 tonnes in 2015 to a mere 1,584 tonnes in 2025 (Product Segment Breakdown). This occurred alongside an extraordinary 1,259% increase in the average import price (from €308/t to €4,185/t). On the export side, while volume fell by 93.3%, the value increased by 345.2%, also driven by a massive price escalation (from €552/t to €3,685/t).

3.3 Price Divergence and Strategic Implications

The price trends for the two segments moved in opposite directions at different magnitudes. While soybean meal export prices fluctuated, ending the period 10% below its starting value, non-soy meal export prices ended 567% higher. This suggests a potential specialization in higher-value or niche non-soy products within the EU, or severe supply constraints for these alternative oilseed meals. The EU’s production of CN 1208 saw its volume decline by 17.4% while its value increased by 75.0%, indicating a move towards higher-value output.

Conclusion

The EU’s market for oilseed flours and meals (CN 1208) between 2015 and 2025 was defined by a decisive shift towards net exporter status. This structural change was primarily powered by a massive expansion in soybean meal exports to Switzerland, while import volumes contracted, especially for non-soy products and from politically unstable Eastern European partners. The trade landscape became more concentrated on both the export and import sides. The data points to a EU industry that is increasingly externally focused, with a pronounced comparative advantage in soybean meal exports, while navigating a shrinking and price-volatile market for other oilseed meals. The net import reliance consequently turned negative (indicating net export status) and grew more pronounced, solidifying the EU’s transformed role in this global market.