Market evolution: Medicinal plants (CN 121190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in medicinal and aromatic plants classified under Combined Nomenclature code 121190. The code covers a broad and residual category of plants and plant parts used primarily in perfumery, pharmacy, or for insecticidal and fungicidal purposes — excluding specific items like ginseng roots, coca leaf, poppy straw, ephedra, and bark of African cherry, which have their own subheadings. The period from 2015 to 2025 has been one of remarkable transformation for this market. The EU's import bill for these products nearly tripled in value, while export growth, though positive, lagged far behind. Price dynamics — rather than volume increases — have been the dominant driver, especially from 2021 onwards. This report identifies three overarching trends and discusses their structural and conjunctural causes.

Scope & definitions

1. A widening structural deficit driven by surging import prices

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in CN 121190 over the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic widening of the trade deficit. While the EU has long been a net importer of medicinal plants, the gap between imports and exports has grown enormously in both absolute and relative terms.

The trade deficit has nearly quadrupled in value

The EU's trade deficit in medicinal plants grew from approximately −€208 million in 2015 to −€768 million in 2025. This reflects a structural characteristic of the EU market: it is a major processing and consumption hub for botanical ingredients used in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, food supplements, and herbal infusions, but it relies heavily on third-country suppliers for raw material.

Volume growth has been modest on both sides, but price inflation has been dramatic

Import volumes grew by 37% over the period, but import values grew by 185% — meaning that more than two-thirds of the value increase is attributable to price increases rather than higher volumes. On the export side, volumes were essentially flat (+2.4%), yet export values rose by 73%, again reflecting a strong price effect. The average unit price of imports more than doubled from €3,693/t to €7,650/t, while the average export price rose from €5,690/t to €9,620/t.

EU domestic production has grown steadily but remains insufficient

EU production of medicinal plants increased from an estimated 129,000 tonnes to 153,000 tonnes over the period (+18.4%), while production value rose by 78% — again indicating that price appreciation within the EU market has been a key growth driver. Nevertheless, the EU remains a significant net importer by volume (importing roughly 136,000 tonnes in 2025 while producing around 153,000 tonnes) and especially by value, given the premium prices paid for many imported botanicals.

2. Geographical concentration of suppliers is increasing, with a handful of countries driving import growth

Behind the headline figures lies a significant reorganisation of the EU's supply geography. Import concentration has risen sharply, and the relative importance of different trading partners has shifted in ways that reflect both structural trade patterns and recent geopolitical disruptions.

India has become the dominant supplier, and import concentration has worsened

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose from 695 in 2015 to 1,186 in 2025 — an increase of 71%. While the market remains below the conventional "highly concentrated" threshold (2,500), the trend is clearly towards greater dependency on fewer suppliers.

India's share of EU medicinal plant imports more than tripled in value terms, rising from €51 million to €159 million. India's position reflects its vast and diverse flora, long tradition in Ayurvedic and traditional medicine, and its role as a major exporter of botanical raw materials. Albania, a candidate country on the EU's doorstep, more than doubled its exports to the EU (+123%), likely reflecting both the growing cultivation of medicinal herbs in the Western Balkans and geographical proximity advantages.

EU export markets are diversifying towards the UK, US, and Switzerland, while Russia and China have declined

The UK remains the EU's single largest export destination, growing by 68% to €72 million. The United States emerged as the fastest-growing major destination (+121%), reflecting strong US demand for European botanical extracts. Conversely, exports to Russia fell by 37% and to China by 61%, both likely reflecting geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions (in the case of Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine), and China's own expanding domestic medicinal plant sector.

Germany dominates EU trade flows on both sides

Among EU Member States, Germany is by far the largest importer (€413 million in 2025, up 207% from 2015) and the largest exporter (€102 million in 2025, up 52%). Germany's position reflects its large pharmaceutical, chemical, and cosmetics industries. Czechia saw the most dramatic growth in imports (+719%, from €7.3 million to €59.7 million), possibly reflecting its growing role as a processing hub. On the export side, Poland (+241%) and Bulgaria (+167%) showed the strongest growth among EU exporters, suggesting an eastward expansion of the EU's medicinal plant value chain.

3. Post-2021 price shocks, growing volatility, and the Tonquin bean surge

The most dramatic price and trade developments occurred after 2021, coinciding with the post-COVID supply chain disruptions, the global inflationary wave, and — in the case of Russia — the consequences of the war in Ukraine.

Prices accelerated sharply from 2021 onwards

Examining the product segment breakdown, the main subcategory (CN 12119086, which covers all medicinal plants except Tonquin beans) shows a clear inflection in import prices around 2021:

Between 2015 and 2020, import prices for the main subcategory rose by only 14% (from €3,666 to €4,165/t). Between 2020 and 2025 alone, they jumped by 82% (to €7,586/t). This acceleration likely reflects a combination of inflationary pressures, climate-related supply disruptions in key producing countries, and growing demand from the health and wellness sector following the COVID-19 pandemic, which heightened consumer interest in plant-based remedies and immunity-boosting products.

Specific supply shocks were detected for Russia, Türkiye, and China

The shock detection analysis identifies three notable price anomalies in EU exports:

The shock in Russian export prices in 2022 — with a very high abnormality score of 1,672 — almost certainly reflects the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent EU sanctions regime, which distorted bilateral trade flows and pricing. The Türkiye price spike in 2023 and the China anomaly in 2020 may reflect more localized disruptions or shifts in product mix (e.g., a higher share of premium-priced botanicals in these bilateral flows).

Volatility differs sharply across supplier countries

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values from key partners reveals significant differences in supply reliability:

Türkiye and Egypt stand out as the most stable suppliers, with CVs below 0.10. India — the EU's largest supplier by value — shows moderate volatility (CV = 0.25), while Ukraine (CV = 0.37), Israel (0.57), and Kenya (0.63) are significantly more volatile, suggesting greater exposure to political instability, climate risk, or seasonal supply fluctuations.

Tonquin beans have emerged as a fast-growing niche import

Within the CN 121190 heading, Tonquin beans (CN 12119030) have shown remarkable growth:

Tonquin beans (also known as Tonka beans), prized in perfumery and gastronomy for their coumarin content, have seen EU import volumes quadruple over the decade. While still a small fraction of total trade in value terms (roughly 1.6% of total imports), this growth reflects rising demand from the luxury fragrance and gourmet food sectors.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in medicinal plants under CN 121190 has undergone a decade of pronounced transformation. Import values nearly tripled — driven more by price inflation than by volume growth — while the trade deficit widened to almost €770 million. The EU's growing dependency on a relatively concentrated set of suppliers, led by India, raises questions about supply chain resilience. At the same time, EU exports have remained resilient, buoyed by strong demand from the UK and the US, though the loss of the Russian and Chinese markets is notable. The post-2021 period stands out as a phase of accelerating prices and heightened volatility, reflecting the convergence of pandemic-related demand shifts, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical disruptions. Looking forward, the EU's ability to diversify its supply base, strengthen domestic production, and manage price volatility will be critical for ensuring the security of its botanical supply chains — a topic of growing strategic importance given the expanding use of plant-based ingredients across the pharmaceutical, nutraceutical, and cosmetics industries.