Market evolution: Medicinal and aromatic plants (CN 12119086) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of EU medicinal and aromatic plants (CN 12119086) between 2015 and 2025. The product category encompasses a wide range of plant materials used primarily in perfumery, pharmacy, and for insecticidal or fungicidal purposes, excluding specific items like ginseng and coca leaf. Over the decade, the EU's trade position has been characterised by rapidly growing import dependency, rising unit values, and significant shifts in sourcing and destination markets, shaped by both long-term trends and recent external shocks.

1. Surging Import Value and Growing Structural Dependency

The EU's trade deficit for this product category widened dramatically between 2015 and 2025, driven overwhelmingly by a surge in the value of imports that outpaced both import volume growth and export performance.

• Explosive growth in import value versus modest volume increase: Total EU imports of medicinal and aromatic plants grew by 182.9% in value, rising from €362.8 million to €1.027 billion. In contrast, import quantity increased by only 36.7%, from 98,986 tonnes to 135,306 tonnes. This divergence points to a significant increase in import unit prices (up 107.0%), indicating inflationary pressure, a shift towards higher-value products, or both.
• Exports grew in value but not in volume: EU exports increased by 73.8% in value to €274.1 million, but the exported quantity remained virtually flat (+2.6%), with unit prices rising by 69.4%. This suggests EU exporters also faced cost increases or were moving to higher-value-added products, but their overall market expansion was modest compared to import growth.
• The trade deficit ballooned as a result: The structural trade deficit deepened by 266.9%, from -€205.1 million to -€752.4 million. This underscores the EU's increasing reliance on external suppliers to meet demand.

Table 1: EU Trade Evolution for CN 12119086 (2015 vs. 2025)

2. Market Consolidation and Specialised Production Centres

The period saw a consolidation of import sources, a diversification of some export partners, and a reinforcement of production specialisation within specific EU member states.

• Import sources became more concentrated: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 72.1%, from 703 to 1,210, indicating that the EU is sourcing its imports from a slightly less diverse set of suppliers. India, the top supplier, saw its exports to the EU jump by 203.2% to €154.4 million, cementing its lead. Albania emerged as the fastest-growing major supplier (+123.1%).
• Export market shifts reflect geopolitical and economic ties: The United Kingdom and the United States remained the EU's largest export markets, growing by 67.1% and 122.9% respectively. Conversely, exports to Russia fell by 37.0%, and those to China collapsed by 60.9%, highlighting a reorientation of trade flows.
• Internal EU production grew in value, with distinct national specialisations: EU production increased by 78.1% in value to an estimated €1.55 billion, and by 18.4% in quantity to 153,000 tonnes. Specialisation analysis shows Croatia, Portugal, and Bulgaria have a strong comparative advantage in producing these plants, while major economies like Germany and the Netherlands, though large producers and traders, are less specialised.

3. Price Volatility, External Shocks, and Intra-EU Dynamics

The market experienced significant price volatility, with notable shock events affecting trade relationships, while major EU member states served as both primary import gateways and export engines.

• Price shocks disrupted key bilateral flows: Shock event detection identified abnormal price shifts in exports to Russia (2022), Turkey (2023), and China (2020). The 2022 shock to Russia coincides with geopolitical events, causing a 42.4% price shift. High coefficient of variation (CV) scores for export partners like China (CV: 0.67) and Turkey (CV: 0.48) confirm their instability, while Switzerland (CV: 0.06) was a stable partner.
• Germany acts as the EU's central trade hub: Germany dominates both import and export activities. Its imports alone surged by 208.8% to €412.3 million (40% of EU total), and its exports grew by 52.2% to €102.3 million. Other key importers like France and the Netherlands also saw strong growth, while Czechia's import value spiked by 719.4%.
• Export concentration remained higher than import concentration: The HHI for exports (1,405 in 2025) is consistently higher than for imports (1,210 in 2025), meaning EU exporters rely on fewer foreign markets than EU importers do on foreign suppliers. This makes export revenues potentially more vulnerable to shocks in key destination markets.

Conclusion

The EU's market for medicinal and aromatic plants (CN 12119086) between 2015 and 2025 underwent a fundamental transformation, defined by a severe and widening trade deficit. This deficit was fuelled not by a collapse in exports, but by an import bill that more than tripled, driven heavily by price inflation. The sourcing landscape consolidated slightly, with India reinforcing its role as the premier supplier, while intra-EU production grew robustly in value, anchored by specialised producers in Southern and Eastern Europe. The period was further marked by significant volatility, with major geopolitical and economic shocks disrupting established trade lanes with Russia and China. Overall, the data portrays a sector of growing strategic importance and value, but one where the EU's external dependency has intensified, presenting both economic and supply-chain resilience considerations for the future.