Market evolution: Vegetable plaiting materials (CN 14) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in products classified under customs code 14 (VEGETABLE PLAITING MATERIALS; VEGETABLE PRODUCTS NOT ELSEWHERE SPECIFIED OR INCLUDED) between 2015 and 2025. The period is characterized by a significant transformation in the EU's trade profile. While import values rose substantially, this was accompanied by a decline in imported volumes, indicating a sharp increase in unit prices. Concurrently, the EU's export performance strengthened, and a dramatic shift occurred in the bloc's self-sufficiency, moving from near-total import reliance to a position of basic self-sufficiency. The following sections detail these key structural changes.

Import Dynamics: Rising Costs and Reconfigured Supply Chains

The EU's import bill for CN 14 products grew by 45.7% over the period, rising from €216.6 million in 2015 to €315.5 million in 2025. This increase in value, however, occurred despite a 19.5% decline in imported physical volume, from 1,202,191 tonnes to 967,220 tonnes. The primary driver of this trend was a dramatic escalation in import prices, which increased by 81.1% to reach €326 per tonne in 2025.

The Dominance and Price Volatility of Agricultural Products

The product segment "Vegetable products, n.e.s." (CN 1404) constitutes the vast majority of EU imports by volume. This segment experienced a severe price shock, with the import price per tonne rising from €135 in 2015 to a peak of €308 in 2022 before settling at €219 in 2025. In contrast, the more specialized "Vegetable materials for plaiting" (CN 1401) also saw price increases but remained at a consistently higher price point, averaging €826 per tonne in 2025. The price volatility was particularly acute for supplies from Russia and Ukraine, which were flagged as major shock events.

A Geographical Reorientation of Import Sources

The geographical concentration of EU imports, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), decreased slightly, indicating a modest diversification of supply sources. Notably, the trade relationship with traditional suppliers evolved significantly:

Data sourced from top import partners by value.

This shift suggests a strategic reorientation away from Eastern European partners and towards Asian suppliers, with India and Kazakhstan emerging as major new sources of value.

Export Performance: Growth Amidst Changing Competitive Landscapes

EU exports of CN 14 products demonstrated strong growth, with their total value increasing by 78.2% from €22.1 million to €39.4 million. This outpaced the 44.2% growth in exported volume (from 43,562 to 62,800 tonnes), indicating improving export prices. The concentration of exports decreased significantly, with the HHI falling by 32.4%, pointing to a diversification of destination markets.

Specialisation and Production Capacity

Within the EU, significant disparities in export specialisation exist. Latvia and Greece show high revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) in CN 14 products, indicating a strong export focus relative to their overall trade. More importantly, EU production of these goods witnessed an extraordinary expansion, with production value soaring by 6,272% to reach €19.1 million by 2025. This massive increase in domestic production capacity underpins the observed change in trade autonomy.

Shifting Export Markets

The profile of the EU's main export destinations also evolved:

Data sourced from top export partners by value.

Growth was particularly strong in nearby European markets (Norway) and in transatlantic trade, while some Balkan markets declined.

A Strategic Shift: From Import Dependence to Self-Sufficiency

The most striking structural change revealed by the data is the EU's radical shift away from import dependence. This is quantified by several key indicators of autonomy and vulnerability.

Collapse of Net Import Reliance

The net import reliance ratio collapsed from 98.2% in 2015 to a mere 2.4% in 2025. This metric, which peaked at 100% in some intermediate years, indicates that by the end of the period, the EU was nearly self-sufficient in CN 14 products, with domestic production meeting almost all demand. This aligns perfectly with the aforementioned 6,272% surge in production value.

The Decoupling of Trade Intensity and Production

Further evidence of this structural break is seen in the trade intensity and export propensity indices. Trade intensity (the share of trade in production) plummeted from 123.6% to 2.7%, signifying that production is now geared primarily towards the domestic market rather than for trade. Similarly, export propensity collapsed from an anomalous 1,846% to 0.15%, confirming that the current production base is not outwardly focused.

Implications for Market Structure

This fundamental rebalancing from import dependence to self-sufficiency explains the simultaneous trends of rising import prices and declining import volumes. It suggests that the EU has either developed a competitive domestic industry or that the imported goods have become more niche and high-value, while bulk requirements are increasingly met internally. This shift fundamentally reduces the EU's external vulnerability for this product group.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for vegetable plaiting materials and products underwent a profound transformation. The period was defined by three interconnected dynamics: first, a surge in import prices that drove up the import bill despite falling volumes, coupled with a significant reorientation of sourcing towards Asian suppliers. Second, the EU's export sector grew in both value and geographical diversification. Third, and most significantly, a massive expansion in domestic production capacity led to the EU achieving near-complete self-sufficiency, effectively decoupling from its historical import dependence. This strategic shift has reshaped the EU's external trade profile for CN 14, moving it from a position of high vulnerability to one of strategic autonomy by 2025.