Market evolution: Processed fruits and vegetables (CN 20) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in processed fruits and vegetables (Combined Nomenclature code 20) with the rest of the world over the period 2015–2025. The EU has solidified its position as a net exporter in this sector, with the trade surplus expanding more than threefold. This expansion has been primarily value-driven, fueled by significant unit price increases rather than proportional growth in traded volumes. Meanwhile, the EU's sourcing landscape has diversified, and its domestic production base has demonstrated substantial growth, enhancing its export capacity.

The EU's Strengthening Net Export Position Fueled by Rising Values

Over the reviewed decade, the EU's trade in processed fruits and vegetables evolved from a moderate surplus to a substantial one. This shift underscores the sector's growing competitive advantage and its contribution to the EU's agri-food trade balance.

A Surplus That More Than Tripled in Value

The EU's trade balance for CN 20 products grew from €1.34 billion in 2015 to €5.00 billion in 2025, a 272.7% increase. This robust performance is detailed in the General Overview. The primary engine of this growth was a stark divergence between the evolution of export and import values.

Export Value Growth Outpaced Import Growth Significantly

EU exports surged by 75.2% in value (from €7.43 billion to €13.01 billion), while imports grew by a more modest 31.6% (from €6.09 billion to €8.01 billion). Crucially, this expansion in value was not matched by a corresponding rise in traded volumes.

The disconnect reveals a clear trend of price inflation across the sector. Export unit prices rose by 53.6%, while import unit prices increased by 38.4%. This indicates that both the EU's outbound and inbound trade are moving towards higher-value products or are subject to broad-based cost increases.

Shifting Geographies of Trade and Diversification

The EU's trade partnerships underwent significant realignment, with the UK's role diminishing and new or non-traditional partners gaining prominence, particularly on the export side.

The Waning Importance of the United Kingdom in EU Trade

Brexit appears to have reshaped trade flows. The UK, while remaining the EU's largest single export destination (€4.08 billion in 2025), saw its share of EU imports from outside the bloc fall dramatically. EU imports from the UK dropped by 42.0% in value, falling from €590 million to €342 million. The UK's volatility coefficient for imports was also the highest among top partners (0.506), indicating unstable sourcing patterns, as seen in the Volatility & Shocks analysis.

The Rise of the United States and New Export Markets

EU exporters successfully pivoted towards other high-value markets. Exports to the United States more than doubled, growing by 124.7% to become the second-largest non-EU market (€2.13 billion). Similarly, exports to Australia (+101.5%), Saudi Arabia (+69.7%), and Japan (+58.9%) recorded strong growth. On the import side, India emerged as a rapidly growing supplier, with import value increasing by 125.7% to €253 million.

Declining Trade Concentration Highlights Sourcing Diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, fell for both imports and exports, confirming a diversification of trade partners. The import-side HHI dropped from 1,144 to 877 (-23.4%), indicating a more dispersed sourcing base. This diversification is a positive indicator for supply chain resilience, though the data also points to specific, acute supply shocks from certain partners like Costa Rica and China in 2022.

Domestic Production Growth Bolstering Export Capacity

The EU's internal production of processed fruits and vegetables has expanded markedly, providing a strong foundation for its export-oriented sector.

Substantial Increase in Production Volumes and Values

EU production quantity in this sector grew by 159.4% (from 14.9 billion kg to 38.7 billion kg), and production value surged by 356.5% (from €14.7 billion to €67.3 billion) over the period. This data is available in the Market Structure section. This explosive growth in output value far exceeded even the rise in export value, suggesting significant investment and potential movement into premium product segments within the EU.

Southern and Western European Members Lead in Specialisation

The EU's export prowess is underpinned by the specialisation of its member states. Greece, Spain, Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands exhibit strong Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating they are the most specialised producers and exporters of CN 20 products within the EU. Conversely, countries like Malta, Ireland, and Finland show very low specialisation, relying more on intra-EU trade or imports for their needs.

Specific Product Segments Drive the Trade Story

At the product level, Frozen vegetables (CN 2004) is the EU's largest export category by volume (2.77 million tonnes in 2025), demonstrating the bloc's strength in processed frozen foods. Fruit juices (CN 2009), while the largest import category by volume (1.53 million tonnes), has seen a steady decline in import quantity since 2016. In terms of value, Preserved tomatoes (CN 2002) and Prepared fruits/nuts (CN 2008) are major import items, while exports are more evenly distributed across segments.

Conclusion

From 2015 to 2025, the EU's trade in processed fruits and vegetables transformed into a high-value, globally competitive sector. The bloc solidified its role as a net exporter, with a tripling of the trade surplus driven predominantly by value appreciation rather than volume expansion. Geopolitical shifts, notably Brexit, triggered a reconfiguration of trade flows, leading to a more diversified partnership landscape and reducing dependency on single markets. Underpinning this success is a domestic production base that has expanded massively in both scale and value, enabling the EU to capitalize on opportunities in dynamic third-country markets like the United States. The sector has become more resilient and profitable, though it remains exposed to global price volatility and specific supply-chain disruptions.