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Market evolution: Tobacco and nicotine products (CN 24) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in products classified under Combined Nomenclature (CN) chapter 24, encompassing tobacco, its manufactured substitutes, and a broad range of nicotine-containing products. The analysis covers the period from 2015 to 2025, a decade marked by significant shifts in trade value, partner composition, and the internal product mix. While the volume of trade has seen moderate growth, its value has surged dramatically, indicating a fundamental transformation towards higher-value products within the sector. The EU's position has evolved from near balance to a consistent and expanding trade surplus.

1. A Surge in Value Outpaces Modest Volume Growth, Forging a Strong Trade Surplus

The most striking feature of the period is the decoupling of trade value from physical quantity. While the EU's trade in CN 24 products grew in volume, the growth in monetary terms was exceptionally strong, significantly improving the trade balance.

  • Divergent Growth in Value and Volume: Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports grew by 87.6% to reach €8.32 billion, while the quantity exported increased by only 5.1% to 414,179 tonnes. Similarly, imports saw their value rise by 74.7% to €5.41 billion against a volume increase of 7.7% to 643,414 tonnes (General Overview). This trend points strongly to an increase in the average unit value of traded goods.
  • Average Prices Confirm the Trend: The average export price per tonne rose by 78.6% (from €11,251 to €20,097), and the average import price per tonne increased by 62.4% (from €5,175 to €8,407). This pervasive price inflation across both flows is a key driver of the value growth.
  • Consolidation of a Positive Trade Balance: The EU's trade balance in this sector shifted decisively into surplus. Starting at €1.34 billion in 2015, the surplus peaked at €3.19 billion before settling at €2.91 billion in 2025—an increase of 117.5%. This structural shift underscores a change in the EU's role in the global market, moving towards being a net exporter of higher-value tobacco and nicotine products (Net Import Reliance).

2. Radical Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships and the Ascent of a New Product Category

The landscape of EU trade partners underwent substantial change, marked by the explosive growth of new players and the emergence of a high-value product category that has reshaped import and export flows.

  • Imports: From the Americas to Asia: Traditional major suppliers like Brazil, the United States, and African nations (Malawi, Tanzania) maintained or grew their volumes. However, the most dramatic change was the role of China. EU imports from China surged by an astonishing 1,643%, rising from €84.7 million in 2015 to €1.48 billion in 2025, making China the fourth-largest import partner by value by 2025 (Top Partners - Imports). This growth is likely linked to the next point.
  • Exports: Reinforcing the European Neighbourhood and Seizing Asian Markets: The UK remained the top export destination despite a 46.0% increase, reflecting persistent demand post-Brexit. Other European neighbours (Switzerland, Türkiye, Ukraine) also saw significant growth. The standout trend was the massive expansion of exports to Japan, which grew by 743% to become the largest non-EU export market by 2025, reaching €1.74 billion (Top Partners - Exports).
  • The Catalyst: The Rise of Product CN 2404. The most significant product-level change was the introduction and rapid growth of CN 2404, covering products intended for inhalation without combustion and other nicotine products (e.g., vapes, nicotine pouches). Data for imports of this sub-category only appear from 2022, jumping from €930.7 million to €1.46 billion in 2025. Its unit value is extraordinarily high (€45,423/t in 2025). Exports of CN 2404, reported from 2022, surged to €2.91 billion by 2025, becoming the highest-value export sub-category (Product Segment Breakdown). This explains both the value surge and the partner shifts, particularly the growth in exports to Japan and imports from China (a major production hub for such goods).

3. Internal Restructuring: Declining Production, Shifting Specialisation, and Market Concentration

Behind the headline trade figures, the EU's domestic production structure evolved, showing a decline in total output alongside a changing specialisation map among Member States.

  • Contraction of Domestic Production: EU production of CN 24 products fell sharply. The production quantity (in kg) decreased by 34.1%, and its value declined by 39.4% over the period, dropping from €17.3 billion to €10.5 billion. This contraction, occurring while export values boomed, suggests a reorientation of the EU's productive capacity or a shift towards sourcing inputs (like nicotine for new products) from abroad (Production Volumes).
  • Diverging Specialisation within the EU: Specialisation in tobacco product exports varies greatly across the EU. In 2025, Member States like Croatia (RSCA: 0.71), Lithuania (0.66), and Greece (0.64) showed very high export specialisation. Poland, the largest specialised exporter (26.4% of EU production), also displayed strong specialisation (RSCA: 0.60). Conversely, countries like Austria, Ireland, and Finland showed negative specialisation indices, indicating they are net importers of these products (Most Specialised Reporters).
  • Changing Market Concentration: The concentration of import sources (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index by value) increased by 34.3%, indicating growing reliance on a fewer number of partners, likely driven by the surge from China. Conversely, the concentration of export destinations (by value) increased by 27.3%, reflecting the growing weight of major partners like Japan, the UK, and Türkiye. These trends highlight an increasing specialisation and focus within key trade corridors (Concentration HHI).

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in tobacco and nicotine products underwent a profound transformation. The period was characterised by a decisive shift from volume-driven to value-driven trade, culminating in a robust and growing trade surplus. This transformation was catalysed by the rapid emergence of high-value nicotine products (CN 2404), which fundamentally altered trade flows, forging new major partnerships with Japan and China. Domestically, this was accompanied by a contraction in traditional production volumes and a reshaping of specialisation among Member States. The EU market has evolved into a significant net exporter of high-value nicotine products, while simultaneously experiencing structural changes in its sourcing and production base. Future trends will likely be shaped by regulatory approaches to next-generation nicotine products and the EU's ability to maintain its competitive edge in this high-value segment.

Generated on 2026-08-07. Figures reflect Eurostat data at generation time and do not include later revisions.

Auto-generated: this report is meant to accelerate, but not to replace, human analysis.

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