Market evolution: Food industry residues and animal feed (CN 23) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 23 covers residues and waste from the food industries and prepared animal fodder, a broad heading that encompasses nine sub-categories — from soy oilcake and other oilseed residues (CN 2304, 2306) to prepared animal feed (CN 2309), cereal brans (CN 2302), starch and sugar-industry residues (CN 2303), and protein meals of animal origin (CN 2301). For the European Union, this product group is strategically important: it underpins the livestock and aquaculture sectors and is deeply embedded in global agricultural supply chains.

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's CN 23 sector underwent a structural transformation. EU domestic production more than doubled in volume and more than tripled in value. Export values grew by 71.6 % while import values rose only 12.5 %, cutting the trade deficit almost in half. The EU solidified its role as a processing hub — importing bulk raw materials (predominantly soy oilcake) at relatively low unit values and exporting high-value prepared animal feed. At the same time, geopolitical upheaval — notably the Russia–Ukraine war — reshaped sourcing patterns and prompted a visible decline in import and export concentration.

The sections that follow trace these dynamics in detail: first the macroeconomic balance, then the product-level composition, and finally the geographic and vulnerability dimensions.

1. Rising Output and Soaring Export Values Close the EU's Trade Gap

EU domestic production more than doubled in volume and more than tripled in value

The EU's domestic production of CN 23 products expanded from 108.9 billion kg in 2015 to 228.4 billion kg in 2025 — a 109.8 % increase in volume. In value terms the growth was even more striking: from €23.4 billion to €87.4 billion (+272.8 %). The fact that value growth outpaced volume growth by a factor of more than two indicates a substantial rise in the unit value of EU production, consistent with the general inflation in agricultural and feed input costs over the period, particularly after 2021.

Export values surged far faster than import values, nearly halving the trade deficit

The overall trade trajectory reveals an asymmetric pattern. EU exports grew from €5.80 billion to €9.94 billion (+71.6 %) while imports rose only from €10.54 billion to €11.86 billion (+12.5 %). Crucially, the growth mechanisms differed: export expansion was overwhelmingly price-driven (unit values +49.7 %, volumes +14.6 %), whereas import growth was almost entirely volume-driven (unit values +4.7 %, volumes +7.4 %).

The trade deficit shrank from €4.75 billion to €1.92 billion, an improvement of 59.7 %. Notably, while the value gap narrowed dramatically, the net volume gap (imports minus exports) actually widened slightly — from roughly 20.8 million tonnes in 2015 to 21.8 million tonnes in 2025. This confirms that the improvement was primarily a terms-of-trade effect: the EU exported increasingly expensive processed products while importing raw materials whose prices remained relatively contained.

Net import reliance and trade intensity declined; export propensity nearly doubled

The vulnerability indicators confirm this structural shift. Net import reliance — the share of domestic consumption met by net imports — fell from 14.7 % to 6.5 %, a 55.3 % decline. Trade intensity (the ratio of trade to production) decreased from 21.6 % to 17.9 %, suggesting the sector is becoming more self-sufficient. Meanwhile, export propensity — the share of EU production that is exported — rose from 4.5 % to 6.7 % (+46.9 %), indicating that the EU is not merely replacing imports with domestic output but also channelling a growing share of that output onto world markets.

2. Importing Soy, Exporting Feed: The Product Structure of EU Trade in CN 23

Soy oilcake (CN 2304) dominates inbound trade by both volume and value

Looking at the product-level breakdown, imports are overwhelmingly concentrated in soy oilcake (CN 2304). In 2025, this sub-product accounted for 20.9 million tonnes (67 % of total import volume) and €6.93 billion (58 % of import value). Imports of soy oilcake grew modestly in volume (+14.1 % from 2015) and were essentially flat in value, as the 2022 price spike (€522/t, up from €332/t in 2015) proved temporary — by 2025 prices had returned to €332/t.

The second-largest import category by volume was other vegetable oilcakes (CN 2306) at 4.9 million tonnes in 2025, though this actually declined 12.6 % from 2015. By value, prepared animal feed (CN 2309) ranked second at €2.70 billion, having grown 83.5 % from €1.47 billion — a notable rise that may partly reflect EU re-imports of specialised feed preparations from non-EU manufacturers.

Prepared animal feed (CN 2309) generates over 80 % of EU export value

The export composition tells a very different story. Prepared animal feed (CN 2309) dominates EU exports: in 2025 it accounted for €8.07 billion (81 % of export value) and 4.48 million tonnes (48 % of volume). Its value nearly doubled from €4.04 billion in 2015, driven both by volume growth (+31.7 %) and a steep rise in unit values (from €1,188/t to €1,802/t, +51.7 %).

The contrast between imports and exports is striking. The EU imports soy oilcake at an average price of €332/t and exports prepared feed at €1,802/t — a 5.4× price multiplier that reflects the substantial value added by the EU's feed-milling industry.

Another notable trend is the decline of soy oilcake re-exports: the EU exported 930 kt of CN 2304 in 2015 but only 478 kt in 2025 (−48.6 %). This suggests the EU is retaining more of its soy oilcake imports for domestic feed processing rather than acting as a transit hub.

The 2022–2023 commodity price shock affected import prices more severely than export prices

The period 2021–2023 saw a pronounced price spike across most CN 23 sub-products, driven by the post-pandemic commodity super-cycle and the disruption of Black Sea grain and oilseed trade following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Soy oilcake import prices peaked at €522/t in 2022 (57 % above 2015 levels), while other oilcake (CN 2306) import prices hit €280/t (53 % above 2015) and starch/sugar residues (CN 2303) peaked at €311/t (92 % above 2015).

By 2025, most raw-material import prices had normalized to or below 2015 levels. In contrast, export prices for prepared feed remained elevated at €1,802/t in 2025 — still 52 % above 2015 and broadly unchanged from the 2023 peak of €1,852/t. This price stickiness on the export side, combined with the normalization of input costs, has widened the EU's processing margin and contributed to the improved trade balance.

3. Geographic Realignment: Latin American Dominance, Russian Collapse, and European Export Diversification

Brazil and Argentina remain the primary import sources, together accounting for over half of inbound value

The partner data shows that the EU's import base is heavily concentrated in South America. Brazil and Argentina collectively supplied €6.20 billion of CN 23 imports in 2025, representing 52 % of total import value. Brazil's shipments rose from €3.01 billion to €3.60 billion (+19.5 %), while Argentina's declined from €3.00 billion to €2.60 billion (−13.6 %).

Both supply routes exhibit relatively low volatility (Brazil CV = 0.15, Argentina CV = 0.18), confirming their role as the EU's dependable backbone for soy oilcake and related products. The United Kingdom ranked third among import sources at €873 million, reflecting its role as a supplier of cereal brans and prepared feed within the broader European feed ecosystem.

Russia's import share collapsed following 2022 sanctions, while Ukraine's shipments to the EU grew

The most dramatic partner-level shift is the near-total disappearance of Russian imports. From €417 million in 2015, Russian CN 23 exports to the EU collapsed to just €25 million in 2025 (−94.0 %). The high coefficient of variation (0.36) reflects the abruptness of this decline, which aligns with the EU sanctions regime imposed after February 2022.

By contrast, Ukraine increased its exports to the EU from €462 million to €805 million (+74.3 %), despite the ongoing conflict. This likely reflects the EU's trade-facilitation measures — including autonomous trade liberalization and the "solidarity lanes" — which helped Ukrainian agricultural exporters maintain and expand access to the EU market.

The import concentration HHI by value fell from 1,820 to 1,596 (−12.3 %), indicating a moderate reduction in sourcing concentration. However, the HHI by volume actually rose from 1,894 to 2,207 (+16.5 %), suggesting that while the value of imports became more diversified, the EU's physical volume of feed-ingredient imports became more reliant on a smaller number of high-volume suppliers (principally Brazil).

EU export destinations diversified significantly, with nearby European markets growing fastest

On the export side, the United Kingdom remains the EU's largest single destination by a wide margin, accounting for €2.27 billion in 2025 (+47.3 % from 2015). The fastest-growing markets, however, were all European or Mediterranean: Switzerland (+111.1 %), Israel (+117.4 %), Türkiye (+105.4 %), and Norway (+97.4 %). Norway's growth to €722 million is particularly notable, potentially reflecting its large aquaculture sector's demand for prepared feed inputs.

The export concentration HHI by value declined from 926 to 737 (−20.4 %), a more pronounced drop than on the import side. Exports to China, while volatile (CV = 0.83), remain too small in absolute terms to materially affect the overall picture.

Within the EU, the Netherlands, France, and Germany are the main trade hubs

The internal EU distribution of CN 23 trade highlights the Netherlands as both the EU's largest extra-EU importer (€1.60 billion) and exporter (€1.48 billion), consistent with its role as Europe's gateway for agricultural commodities via the port of Rotterdam. France recorded the fastest export growth among major EU members (+60.2 % to €1.62 billion), while Spain saw the largest increase in imports (+32.1 % to €1.48 billion), reflecting the growth of its livestock sector. Poland's imports surged by 63.7 % to €1.40 billion, likely driven by its expanding poultry and pig industries.

In terms of revealed comparative advantage, the most specialised EU member states in CN 23 exports are Hungary (RSCA = 0.33), Latvia (0.27), Lithuania (0.21), and Poland (0.20). The least specialised include Malta (RSCA = −1.00), Luxembourg (−0.68), and Ireland (−0.65), the latter perhaps surprisingly given its large livestock sector — though Ireland's cattle-based industry may rely more on grass than on compounded feed.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's trade in CN 23 products has been reshaped by three converging forces.

First, a near-doubling of domestic production — combined with a steep rise in export unit values — has transformed the EU from a large net importer into a more balanced player. The trade deficit fell from €4.75 billion to €1.92 billion, and net import reliance dropped from 14.7 % to 6.5 %.

Second, the product composition of trade reveals the EU's strategic positioning as a value-adding processing hub. The EU imports soy oilcake at roughly €330/t and exports prepared animal feed at €1,800/t — a 5.4× price multiplier that accounts for most of the improvement in the trade balance. The 2022 commodity price shock temporarily disrupted this model, but by 2025 raw-material input costs had normalized while processed-feed export prices remained elevated, further strengthening the EU's margin.

Third, the geographic map of trade has been redrawn. The collapse of Russian imports (−94 %) and the resilience of Ukrainian supply (+74 %) are the most visible consequences of the 2022 geopolitical upheaval. Meanwhile, Latin America — especially Brazil — remains the indispensable source of soy oilcake, and the concentration of import volumes in a handful of suppliers persists despite a modest decline in value-based concentration. On the export side, the EU has diversified meaningfully, with fast growth to Switzerland, Norway, Türkiye, and Israel complementing the enduring centrality of the United Kingdom.

Looking ahead, the principal vulnerabilities are the EU's continued dependence on South American soy oilcake — which accounts for over two-thirds of import volume — and the exposure of this supply chain to weather, currency, and policy risks in the region. The EU's processing strength provides a cushion, but the raw-material bottleneck remains the sector's most significant structural constraint.