Market evolution: Animal feed flours and meals (CN 2301) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in CN 2301 — a composite category covering flours, meals and pellets of meat, offal, fish and other aquatic invertebrates unfit for human consumption, as well as greaves. These products are key inputs in the global animal feed and aquaculture industries. The EU's external trade in CN 2301 underwent significant structural shifts between 2015 and 2025: the bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter, production volumes surged, price dynamics diverged sharply between import and export flows, and the geographic landscape of trading partners was substantially redrawn. Three dynamics stand out as the most consequential over the decade and form the backbone of the analysis below.

1. From Net Importer to Structural Net Exporter

The most striking macro-level development is the EU's decisive shift from a modest net-import-reliant position to a pronounced net-export surplus in CN 2301.

The trade balance swung from a deficit to a sustained surplus

In 2015, the EU's net import reliance stood at +29.5%, indicating that imports exceeded exports in value terms. By 2025, this indicator had flipped to −27.1%, meaning the EU was running a comfortable export surplus. The shift was not linear: net import reliance dropped sharply through the late 2010s and reached a trough of −38.7% in one year before settling at its current level. The trade balance in euros grew from €269 million in 2015 to €356 million in 2025, a gain of 32.4%.

(Source: General Overview)

Volume growth was heavily export-led

Export quantities rose by 40.6% over the period, from approximately 1.04 million tonnes in 2015 to 1.46 million tonnes in 2025 — an increase of over 420,000 tonnes. Import quantities, by contrast, grew only 6.3% (from 387,000 to 412,000 tonnes). This asymmetry in volume growth is the primary mechanical driver behind the shift in net reliance. The EU's export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 23.0% to 39.4% (+71.5%), confirming that an increasing share of EU output was directed to international markets.

Domestic production expanded massively, underpinning the export surge

Behind the export boom lies a substantial expansion in EU production. Production quantity grew by 67.4% (from 2.03 billion kg to 3.40 billion kg), while production value surged by 266.1% (from €582 million to €2.13 billion). The much faster growth in value relative to quantity reflects a combination of rising unit prices (driven by inflation in energy and raw-material costs) and a possible shift toward higher-value product mixes. Denmark emerged as the EU's dominant producer and exporter, accounting for a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.71 — the highest among all Member States. Denmark's exports alone reached €331 million in 2025, up 58.5% from 2015 and representing nearly 38% of all EU extra-EU exports. Spain (+216%) and Italy (+95.4%) also emerged as significant growth contributors.

2. Diverging Price Trajectories and the 2022 Supply Shock

While both import and export values grew, the price dynamics behind these trends diverged markedly, reflecting different product mixes and external shocks.

Export unit prices fell while import prices rose

Over the full period, EU export unit prices declined by 7.7% (from €642/t to €592/t), even as volumes surged. Import unit prices, however, rose by 20.3% (from €1,025/t to €1,232/t). The gap is largely explained by product composition: the EU's export basket is dominated by lower-priced meat/offal meals (CN 230110), which traded at around €378/t in 2025, while imports are tilted toward higher-priced fish and aquatic-invertebrate meals (CN 230120), which fetched €1,444/t.

(Source: Product Segment Breakdown)

The year 2022 stands out as a systemic price shock across multiple import suppliers

The volatility analysis identifies three prominent price shocks, all occurring in 2022 and concentrated in the import flow:

These shocks are consistent with the global commodity price spike of 2022, driven by the combined effects of the energy crisis, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and disrupted supply chains. Fish meal, being a globally traded commodity heavily dependent on anchovy catches off South America (Peru is the world's largest producer), was particularly exposed. The fact that these shocks were concentrated in the import flow — where fish-meal products dominate — explains why import unit prices peaked at €1,436/t in one year before moderating.

Import suppliers exhibit different levels of price volatility

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values ranges from 0.16 for Norway (the most stable supplier) to 0.84 for the United States and 0.72 for Mauritania (the least stable). Peru (0.50) and Iceland (0.70) also show high volatility, underscoring the EU's exposure to weather-dependent fisheries in the Southern Hemisphere and small, concentrated Atlantic suppliers. On the export side, Thailand (0.13) and Chile (0.15) are the most stable destinations, while Bangladesh (0.75) and Indonesia (0.70) are the most volatile.

3. Geographic Reorientation of Trade Flows

The decade saw a pronounced restructuring of the EU's trading-partner landscape on both the import and export sides, with several long-standing relationships weakening and new corridors gaining prominence.

Import sources shifted away from European neighbours toward Latin America and Africa

The EU's top import partners in 2015 were Norway (€66.7M), Iceland (€63.9M), and Peru (€57.0M). By 2025, the ranking had shifted substantially:

Iceland's collapse — from €63.9 million to just €4.1 million (−93.6%) — is the most dramatic single shift. This likely reflects the decline of Iceland's fish-meal production capacity or a redirection of Icelandic exports toward other markets (notably Asia). The United Kingdom's decline of 58.8% is plausibly linked to post-Brexit trade frictions and customs barriers introduced after 2020. Meanwhile, South Africa (+354.2%) and Chile (+155.7%) surged, suggesting that the EU increasingly sourced fish meal from Southern Hemisphere producers with large pelagic fisheries.

Export destinations diversified, with Norway becoming the dominant market

On the export side, Norway doubled its imports of EU CN 2301 products from €123.6 million to €258.8 million (+109.4%), becoming by far the largest single destination — driven by Norway's large salmon aquaculture sector, which requires substantial volumes of high-protein feed ingredients. Singapore (+2,552%) and the Philippines (+48.6%) reflect a growing orientation toward Asian aquaculture markets. The United Kingdom, the second-largest destination, grew modestly (+10.1%) from €70.5 million to €77.6 million.

Export concentration increased while import concentration eased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value rose from 816 to 1,248 (+53.0%), crossing from a broadly competitive structure into moderate concentration. This reflects the growing weight of Norway as an export destination — Norway alone accounted for roughly 30% of EU export value by 2025. For imports, the HHI declined slightly from 1,121 to 1,061 (−5.3%), indicating a modest diversification as suppliers like South Africa and Chile offset the decline of Iceland and the UK. The volume-based HHI tells a broadly consistent story, though with somewhat more variability year to year.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in CN 2301 underwent a fundamental structural transformation. The bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter of animal feed flours and meals, underpinned by a 67% expansion in domestic production and a near-doubling of export volumes. This growth was heavily concentrated in meat and offal meals (CN 230110), where the EU benefits from large-scale livestock processing, while the EU's imports remained focused on higher-priced fish meals (CN 230120) sourced increasingly from Latin America and Africa.

The 2022 commodity price shock left a clear imprint on import prices, with abnormal price spikes recorded across key suppliers (New Zealand, Peru, Faroe Islands), though these proved transitory. On the geographic front, the trade map was substantially redrawn: Iceland and the United Kingdom faded as import sources, while South Africa and Chile gained ground; on the export side, Norway's salmon-farming industry made it the EU's single largest customer, concentrating export flows in a way that merits monitoring.

Looking forward, the EU's growing export dependence — export propensity rose to 39.4% — and the increased concentration of export destinations (HHI above 1,200) suggest that the market is becoming more exposed to demand-side risks in key importing countries, even as import-side diversification has improved modestly. The interplay between expanding domestic production, shifting global aquaculture demand, and the EU's evolving regulatory environment for animal-origin feed ingredients will shape the next phase of this market's development.