Market evolution: Animal feed (CN 2309) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in animal feed preparations (CN 2309) from 2015 to 2025. The EU has demonstrated a strong and growing position in this market, characterised by a substantial surplus and evolving trade relationships. Over the decade, the sector has experienced robust growth in value, marked by significant price increases and a notable shift in trade partners. The following sections detail these key dynamics, examining overall performance, the changing structure of trade with partners, and the underlying price trends and volatility.

1. Sustained Expansion and a Widening Trade Surplus

The EU's animal feed sector exhibited strong and consistent growth between 2015 and 2025. Both exports and imports increased in value, but exports significantly outpaced imports, leading to a dramatic widening of the trade surplus.

1.1. Export value nearly doubled, driven by volume and price

EU exports in CN 2309 grew from €4.04 billion in 2015 to €8.07 billion in 2025, an increase of 99.8% General Overview. This expansion was fuelled by both rising quantities and higher prices. Export volumes rose by 31.7%, from 3.40 million tonnes to 4.48 million tonnes, while the average export price increased by 51.7%.

1.2. Import growth lagged behind, reinforcing EU's net exporter status

Imports also grew substantially, rising by 83.5% from €1.47 billion to €2.70 billion. However, this was less than the export growth rate General Overview. The import quantity increased by 23.8%, and the import price rose by 48.3%. The EU's trade balance consequently more than doubled, from €2.56 billion to €5.37 billion (+109.2%), confirming the EU's strong competitive advantage as a net exporter General Overview.

2. Shifting Trade Partners and Diversification of Supply

The geographic concentration of EU trade underwent significant changes. While traditional partners remained important, new dynamics emerged, particularly concerning imports, leading to a notable diversification in the source of EU imports.

2.1. The United Kingdom remained the top partner for both exports and imports

The United Kingdom was consistently the EU's largest single trade partner for animal feed. Exports to the UK grew by 94.2% to €1.85 billion, and imports from the UK grew by a more modest 7.0% to €662 million, making it a key source of surplus General Overview.

2.2. China and Thailand emerged as major new sources of imports

A major dynamic was the surge in imports from China, which exploded by 408.9% from €125 million to €637 million, making it the third-largest import source in 2025 General Overview. Imports from Thailand also grew robustly (+151.6%). This growth in Asian imports contributed to a 34.7% decline in the concentration (HHI) of EU imports by value, indicating a diversification away from a few traditional sources like the UK and US General Overview.

2.3. Export markets expanded strongly in Europe and beyond

Export growth was broadly based. Significant increases were recorded to Switzerland (+119.0%), Ukraine (+257.5%), and Norway (+104.7%) General Overview. Within the EU, several Member States dramatically increased their export shares, notably Poland (+611.8%) and Spain (+205.8%) General Overview.

3. Price Inflation, Sectoral Differences, and Volatility

The period was defined by strong price inflation across the sector, though with distinct patterns between industrial and pet food segments. Trade relationships also exhibited varying levels of volatility, with some significant price shocks detected.

3.1. The pet food segment commanded much higher prices than industrial feed

A clear segmentation exists within CN 2309. Retail dog/cat food (CN 230910) consistently traded at a price premium of over 100% compared to bulk animal feed preparations (CN 230990). In 2025, the import price for CN 230910 was €3,255 per tonne, versus €865 for CN 230990 Product Segment Breakdown. The value growth of the pet food segment was also stronger for exports.

3.2. Price increases accelerated from 2020, with a major shock in China trade

Average prices for both exports and imports showed a general upward trend, with a marked acceleration after 2020. The most significant detected price shock occurred in EU imports from China, with a 50.8% price shift centred on 2021, registering a high abnormality score of 57.0 Volatility & Shocks. This reflects the global supply chain disruptions and input cost pressures of that period.

3.3. Trade volatility varied widely by partner

Coefficient of Variation (CV) analysis reveals that trade stability varied greatly. Exports to the United Kingdom were relatively stable (CV 0.11), while trade with Russia (both exports and imports) and Ukraine showed high volatility Volatility & Shocks. The high volatility in Russia trade aligns with its significant but fluctuating share as an export destination.

Conclusion

The EU's animal feed industry (CN 2309) demonstrated remarkable strength and adaptability from 2015 to 2025. It achieved nearly 100% export value growth, solidifying its status as a major global supplier with an expanding trade surplus. The market structure evolved, with imports becoming more diversified, particularly with the rise of China as a key supplier. These changes occurred against a backdrop of significant price inflation, exacerbated by a major supply shock in 2021. While trade with some partners proved volatile, the sector's overall trajectory points to a robust and competitive European industry that has successfully grown its international market share.