Market evolution: Cereal and legume residues (CN 2302) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of European Union trade in bran, sharps, and other cereal and legume residues (CN 2302) from 2015 to 2025. Over the decade, the EU has solidified its position as a major global supplier, with trade values experiencing significant growth. This growth, however, has been primarily value-driven, influenced by substantial price increases and shifts in trade patterns rather than proportional expansion in physical volumes. The period has also been marked by increased market volatility and a notable diversification of both import sources and export destinations, reflecting dynamic adjustments within the global agricultural supply chain.

1. Strong Value Growth Anchored in Price Increases and Shifting Partnerships

The EU's external trade in CN 2302 products expanded markedly in value between 2015 and 2025, though the underlying drivers and partner composition evolved significantly.

Export growth was predominantly a story of rising prices

EU exports to non-EU countries grew from €71.2 million to €136.3 million, an increase of 91.6% in value. Over the same period, export volumes rose by 31.7%, from 416,214 tonnes to 548,104 tonnes. This disparity points to a substantial rise in average export prices, which increased by 46.1%, from €170/t to €249/t. The peak export value was reached in 2025, while the peak volume was recorded in 2020 (569,716 tonnes), suggesting that recent growth has been almost entirely price-led. View detailed trade data.

Imports surged in both volume and value, altering the trade balance

EU imports grew even more dramatically, increasing by 150.7% in value (from €30.1 million to €75.4 million) and 158.2% in volume (from 137,540 tonnes to 355,191 tonnes). Despite this, the EU maintained a consistent trade surplus in this sector, which expanded from €41.1 million to €60.9 million (+48.2%). The import price remained relatively stable, declining slightly (-2.9%) over the period, indicating that import growth was volume-driven. This suggests strengthening demand within the EU for these residual products.

The geographic concentration of trade shifted, with new key partners emerging

The top export destinations transformed. While the United Kingdom remained a crucial market (value +85.7%), Türkiye became the EU's largest single export destination by 2025, with its share growing by 187.1% to €43.8 million. Conversely, exports to North African markets like Tunisia (-52.8%) and Morocco (-72.3%) declined sharply. On the import side, the United Kingdom was the primary source (48.1% value growth), but imports from Ukraine (from €68k to €9.4m) and Angola (from €896k to €9.0m) saw explosive growth, reflecting new sourcing strategies. Explore top trade partners.

2. Stagnating Production, Diversifying Sources, and Evolving Specialization

The EU's domestic production of CN 2302 did not keep pace with trade growth, leading to a more globally integrated and specialized market structure.

EU production volumes decreased while values rose, signaling domestic price pressures

Total EU production quantity for CN 2302 decreased by 9.9% over the decade, from 11.64 billion kg to 10.49 billion kg. In contrast, the total production value increased by 36.0%, from €1.21 billion to €1.65 billion. This indicates that the average domestic price for these residues rose substantially, likely driven by feed demand and the pass-through of higher grain prices from 2021-2023. View production volumes and values.

Import sources diversified, reducing supplier concentration

The concentration of EU imports, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value, fell sharply by 54.6% from 4,200 to 1,905. This drop from a highly concentrated to a moderately concentrated market indicates the EU successfully diversified its import sources over the period, reducing dependency on a few key suppliers. The entry and growth of suppliers like Ukraine and Angola are key drivers of this trend. Analyze import concentration.

Specialization across EU member states remains highly uneven

Within the EU, production and export specialization vary dramatically. In 2025, Latvia (RSCA: 0.78) and Germany (RSCA: 0.27) displayed strong comparative advantages in exporting CN 2302, with their production shares well above their share of total EU trade. In stark contrast, major importers like Romania (RSCA: -0.88) and Ireland (RSCA: -0.83) showed a significant lack of specialization, relying heavily on imports to meet domestic demand. This structure positions certain EU countries as primary global exporters, while others act as key import nodes within the bloc. See member state specialization.

3. Volatility, Price Shocks, and a Deepening Role in Global Markets

The 2015-2025 period was characterized by increased price volatility, specific supply shocks that impacted the EU's trade flow, and a measurable increase in the market's integration into the global economy.

Price volatility affected key trading relationships, with dramatic shocks in 2022

Several trade flows exhibited high volatility (Coefficient of Variation). The most notable were import relationships with Ukraine (CV: 1.31) and Angola (CV: 0.66). Systematic shock detection identified three major price-related events: a 60.9% price surge from Angola in 2022, a 65.2% price increase from Côte d'Ivoire in 2022, and a 14.9% price shock from the United Kingdom in 2020. These shocks likely correlate with global grain market turbulence during the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the war in Ukraine. Review volatility and shocks.

The EU's net export position strengthened, reflecting deeper market integration

The EU's net import reliance (as a percentage of apparent consumption) consistently remained negative, confirming the bloc is a net exporter. This figure worsened (became more negative) from -0.80% in 2015 to -2.92% in 2025, indicating a growing export surplus relative to domestic consumption. Concurrently, the trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) surged from 2.8% to 10.9%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) jumped from 1.8% to 7.1%. This dramatic increase demonstrates that EU producers became significantly more reliant on, and integrated into, international markets for these by-products. Assess autonomy metrics.

Within the product category, wheat bran dominates trade, while legume residues show high-value niche growth

The product breakdown reveals that wheat bran (CN 230230) is the overwhelming driver of trade in both volume and value, consistently accounting for over 70% of EU exports. Its export price peaked in 2022 at €349/t before receding. Leguminous plant residues (CN 230250) represent a small volume niche but command extremely high prices (often over €1,200/t), though a sharp price drop occurred in 2025. Maize bran (CN 230210) export volumes grew steadily, nearly tripling over the period. This segmentation highlights how different residual streams serve distinct and sometimes volatile market demands. Compare product segments.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in cereal and legume residues (CN 2302) underwent a significant transformation. The market expanded substantially in value, driven by a combination of rising unit prices and a considerable increase in import volumes. This period was defined by strategic shifts: the EU diversified its import suppliers, reducing concentration risk, while exports pivoted towards new, high-growth markets like Türkiye. Domestically, production stagnated in volume but increased in value, pushing EU producers to become far more export-oriented. The market also faced considerable volatility and specific price shocks, particularly during the global disruptions of 2020-2022. Overall, the data paints a picture of a sector that has become more globally integrated, price-sensitive, and structurally complex, with distinct roles for member states and product sub-segments. The EU's strengthened net export position and heightened trade intensity underscore its critical role in global markets for these agricultural by-products.