Market evolution: Wheat bran and residues (CN 230230) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in wheat bran, sharps and other residues (Combined Nomenclature code 230230) over the period 2015–2025. The product encompasses by-products of wheat milling and sifting, used predominantly in animal feed and, increasingly, in food-grade applications. Over the decade under review, EU trade in this commodity underwent significant structural change: imports expanded far more rapidly than exports, trade prices surged — particularly in 2022 — and the geographic landscape of both supply and demand shifted markedly. The EU remained a net exporter throughout most of the period, but its trade surplus narrowed and the bloc became considerably more integrated into global wheat-bran markets. The analysis draws on general trade data, partner-level breakdowns, Member State reporter data, market concentration metrics, and volatility and shock indicators.

1. Diverging Export and Import Trajectories Narrow the EU's Trade Surplus

1.1. Exports grew in value but volumes peaked and partially retraced

EU exports of wheat bran to non-EU countries rose from €55.2 million in 2015 to €86.6 million in 2025, a cumulative increase of 57.0%. Over the same period, export volumes grew more modestly, from 358,110 tonnes to 410,442 tonnes (+14.6%). The gap between value and volume growth reflects a sustained increase in export unit values, which climbed from €154/t in 2015 to a peak of €349/t in 2022 before retreating to €211/t by 2025. Export volumes, for their part, were highly variable: they peaked at nearly 499,000 tonnes (likely around 2016–2017) before falling to a trough of approximately 204,691 tonnes, and then partially recovering by 2025.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.2. Imports expanded at a far faster pace, nearly tripling in value

The most striking structural trend in the decade was the rapid expansion of EU imports. Import values rose from €18.0 million in 2015 to €53.0 million in 2025 — a near-tripling (+195.5%). Import volumes expanded even more sharply in relative terms, from 102,378 tonnes to 280,936 tonnes (+174.4%). Unlike exports, import unit values rose only modestly over the period, from €175/t to €189/t (+7.7%), suggesting that the import surge was primarily volume-driven rather than price-driven.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.3. The trade balance remained positive but contracted considerably

As a result of these divergent trends, the EU's trade surplus in wheat bran narrowed from €37.2 million in 2015 to €33.6 million in 2025 (−9.8%). Critically, the balance dipped into deficit at one point during the period, reaching a minimum of −€6.9 million — likely in or around 2022, when import prices spiked. The net import reliance indicator confirms that the EU remained a net exporter throughout most of the period (negative values indicate net export status), but the metric moved from −1.1% in 2015 to −2.2% in 2025, after touching a peak of +0.4% (brief net-import status). Meanwhile, trade intensity rose from 2.1% to 8.8% (+320.3%), and export propensity increased from 1.6% to 5.6% (+247.1%), indicating that the EU's wheat-bran sector became significantly more oriented towards international trade over the decade.

2. The 2022 Price Shock as a Watershed Moment

2.1. A cluster of abnormal price spikes hit in 2022

The year 2022 stands out as a systemic shock event across the EU's wheat-bran trade. The shock detection analysis identifies three major anomalies, all centred on 2022:

Source: Volatility & Shocks — supply shocks

These price shocks are consistent with the broader 2022 commodity price surge triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying energy crisis, which elevated grain and feed prices across global markets. Wheat bran, as a derivative of wheat milling, is directly affected by wheat price dynamics and by the cost of energy-intensive processing and transport.

2.2. Export unit values spiked far above normal levels in 2022

The segment-level data reveals the extent of the 2022 distortion. Export unit values for CN 23023090 (the broader wheat-bran sub-product) reached €383/t in 2022, more than double the 2015 level of €160/t. Similarly, CN 23023010 (low-starch bran with specific sieve and ash criteria) saw its export price peak at €296/t in 2022, versus €147/t in 2015. Import prices for CN 23023010 rose to €255/t in 2022, up from €175/t in 2015. By 2025, all prices had partially normalised but remained well above pre-2020 levels.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

2.3. Ukraine and Russia trade channels exhibit extreme instability

Partners from the Black Sea region displayed the highest volatility in EU wheat-bran trade. Ukraine as an import source saw its trade value surge from €42,057 in 2015 to a peak of nearly €9.0 million, but with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.42 — indicating extreme year-to-year swings. Russia displayed even higher import volatility (CV 3.29). On the export side, Türkiye emerged as the EU's single largest export partner (reaching €37.4 million in 2025), but with a moderate CV of 0.52. Morocco and Egypt, by contrast, exhibited high export volatility (CVs of 1.20 and 1.29 respectively), consistent with episodic and demand-driven purchasing patterns.

Source: Volatility & Shocks — volatility

3. Shifting Trade Geographies and Evolving Market Concentration

3.1. The UK remained the EU's key bilateral partner, but Türkiye overtook it as the top export destination

Throughout the period, the United Kingdom was the EU's most important trade partner in wheat bran, serving as both a major import source and export destination. In 2025, the UK supplied €18.5 million in imports (+66.2% versus 2015) and absorbed €20.0 million in exports (+46.5%). However, the most dramatic growth occurred on the export side with Türkiye, which went from €12.6 million in 2015 to €37.4 million in 2025 (+195.9%), making it the EU's single largest export market by value. Other notable export growth destinations included Qatar (from €16,440 to €3.6 million, a +21,914% increase from a negligible base).

Source: Top partners by value

3.2. Italy and Ireland dominated intra-EU export and import flows, with strong growth across Member States

Among EU Member States, Italy was by far the largest exporter of wheat bran to non-EU countries, growing from €18.1 million to €36.5 million (+101.9%). Poland (+156.7%) and the Netherlands (+134.5%) also posted strong export growth. On the import side, Ireland was the dominant buyer, with imports surging from €11.1 million to €30.4 million (+173.4%). Romania's imports grew the most dramatically in relative terms (+499.8%), rising from €1.5 million to €9.3 million, reflecting the country's expanding livestock sector and feed demand.

Source: Top reporters by value

3.3. Import concentration fell sharply while export concentration rose moderately

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partner concentration declined from 4,520 in 2015 to 1,983 in 2025 (−56.1%), indicating that the EU diversified its wheat-bran import sources substantially over the decade. The HHI for export partner concentration, by contrast, rose from 1,732 to 2,499 (+44.3%), suggesting a growing reliance on a smaller number of export markets — principally Türkiye and the UK.

Source: Concentration — HHI

3.4. Production volumes declined while production values rose, reflecting cost and price inflation

EU domestic production of wheat bran (as reported under PRODCOM 10.61.40.50) fell from 9.92 billion kg in 2015 to 8.97 billion kg in 2025 (−9.6%). Yet production value rose from €1.03 billion to €1.35 billion (+31.7%), reflecting the general increase in cereal and feed commodity prices over the decade. In terms of specialisation, Latvia (RSCA 0.88), Luxembourg (0.67), and Bulgaria (0.49) were the most specialised EU exporters of wheat bran in 2025, while Finland, Denmark, and Romania displayed the most negative RSCA values, indicating net import dependence in this product.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's wheat-bran trade landscape was fundamentally reshaped. While the bloc maintained its overall position as a net exporter, the explosive growth of imports — nearly tripling in value and more than doubling in volume — narrowed the trade surplus and raised the EU's trade intensity in this product from 2.1% to 8.8%. The 2022 commodity price shock, linked to the war in Ukraine and global energy market disruption, left a pronounced mark on unit values and triggered abnormal price spikes across key bilateral relationships. On the geographic front, Türkiye consolidated its position as the EU's foremost export market, while import sourcing diversified significantly (HHI declining by 56%). Within the EU, Italy and Ireland emerged as the dominant export and import hubs respectively, and several newer Member States — notably Romania and Poland — posted rapid growth. Looking ahead, the growing export concentration (rising HHI on the export side) and continued dependence on a small number of large-volume partners like the UK and Türkiye represent potential vulnerabilities, even as the overall market has become larger and more dynamic.