Market evolution: Wine lees (CN 2307) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the trade evolution of the EU for customs code 2307, which covers "Wine lees; argol," a residual product from wine production often used for the extraction of tartaric acid. The period 2015–2025 is characterized by a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position. The bloc has transformed from a net exporter to a significant net importer, driven primarily by a surge in import value that far outpaced changes in import volume, indicating a dramatic increase in unit prices. This structural change was accompanied by high volatility in trade flows with certain partners and a growing concentration of imports from a single key supplier.
1. The EU's Fundamental Shift from Net Exporter to Net Importer
The most significant trend over the decade is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance for wine lees. Starting from a position of a modest trade surplus, the bloc ended the period with a substantial deficit, driven almost entirely by an explosion in the value of imports.
The Surging Trade Deficit
The EU's trade balance for CN 2307 deteriorated dramatically. In 2015, the Union recorded a net trade surplus of €232,532. By 2025, this had swung to a net deficit of €1,549,616, representing a cumulative decline of over 766%.
Diverging Trajectories of Imports and Exports
This reversal was caused by sharply divergent trends in import and export values.
| Flow | Value (EUR) - 2015 | Value (EUR) - 2025 | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 546,279 | 2,681,918 | +390.9% |
| Exports | 778,811 | 1,132,303 | +45.4% |
Source: General Overview
The Price-Volume Divergence: A Key to Understanding the Shift
The explosive growth in import value was not matched by a comparable increase in the physical quantity traded. Import volumes grew by only 47.8% over the period, while import unit prices surged by 232.1% (from €254/t to €845/t). This indicates that the rise in import bills was predominantly a price phenomenon. Conversely, while export values grew, export volumes actually declined by 18.5%, as export unit prices increased by 78.4% (from €1,111/t to €1,983/t). The EU was paying significantly more for its imports while selling smaller volumes abroad at also higher prices.
2. Market Concentration and the Specialization of Key EU Members
The EU's trade in wine lees is highly specialized and concentrated, both in terms of the member states driving the trade and the external partners they rely on.
Specialization and Production within the EU
Not all EU member states are active in this niche market. Specialization analysis for 2025 reveals a clear divide. Traditional wine-producing nations dominate:
- Portugal shows the highest relative comparative advantage (RSCA: 0.88).
- France, Spain, and Italy are also highly specialized (RSCA: 0.60, 0.47, and 0.36 respectively).
These four countries account for a vast majority of the EU's intra-bloc production capacity for wine lees, aligning with their large wine industries. Conversely, countries like the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Sweden are highly unspecialized, acting more as trading hubs than producers.
The Dramatic Reorientation of Import Sources
The source of the EU's imports has shifted decisively towards the United States, leading to a much more concentrated import market.
| Partner | Import Value (EUR) - 2015 | Import Value (EUR) - 2025 | Change (%) | Share of 2025 Imports |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 28,226 | 1,910,505 | +6,668.6% | ~71% |
| Chile | 152,452 | 164,178 | +7.7% | ~6% |
| Brazil | 112,322 | 411,858 | +266.7% | ~15% |
| Israel | 9,701 | 37,835 | +290.0% | ~1% |
| Argentina | 59,565 | 71,083 | +19.3% | ~3% |
Source: Top Partners by Value (Imports)
The United States grew from a minor supplier in 2015 to dominating the market by 2025. This is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value concentration, which increased from 1,845 to 5,360, indicating a shift from a competitive to a highly concentrated market structure.
The Concentrated and Stable Export Market
In contrast, the EU's export market remained highly concentrated and relatively stable, with Japan as the dominant and growing partner. Japan received €1,053,271 of EU exports in 2025, a 48.1% increase from 2015 and accounting for nearly all EU export value by 2025. The HHI for export value remained consistently high (around 8,400-8,700), underscoring this reliance.
3. Volatility, Price Shocks, and Changing Roles of EU Members
The period was marked by significant volatility in trade flows with specific partners and notable price shocks, while the internal dynamics of EU trade saw a radical change in the roles of member states.
High Volatility with Certain Trade Partners
Trade flows with several partners exhibited high instability, as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV). For imports, volatility was highest with Moldova (CV: 2.15) and Türkiye (CV: 1.23). For exports, volatility was pronounced with China (CV: 1.77), Australia (CV: 1.73), and the United States (CV: 1.67). This suggests these relationships are less stable and more susceptible to annual swings.
Significant Price Shocks
The data identifies several acute price shock events. The most severe was a 1,923% price increase for imports from Moldova in 2017. A major 87% price spike in exports to Japan occurred in 2018. These shocks, while impactful for specific bilateral relationships, did not derail the overarching macro trends but contributed to the volatility narrative.
The Reversal of Roles for Spain and Italy
A striking internal shift occurred among EU member states. The two largest traditional wine-producing nations, Spain and Italy, saw their roles completely invert:
- Spain transformed from a significant exporter (€13,700 in 2015) to the EU's largest importer by value (€2,476,164 in 2025). It went from exporting wine lees to heavily importing them, likely to feed its tartaric acid production industry.
- Italy consolidated its position as the EU's largest exporter, growing from €418,303 in 2015 to €721,874 in 2025. Despite its own large production, it increasingly served external markets, notably Japan.
Source: Top Reporters by Value
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for wine lees (CN 2307) underwent a profound structural transformation. The Union evolved from a net exporter to a major net importer, a shift driven by a massive increase in the value of imports, which was itself primarily fueled by soaring unit prices rather than proportional volume increases. This trend led to a highly concentrated import market dominated by the United States. Internally, trade became more specialized, with traditional wine powerhouses like France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal underpinning production, while their roles diverged sharply—Spain becoming the import engine and Italy the export leader. The period was also characterized by significant volatility and acute price shocks in bilateral trade, highlighting the market's sensitivity. Overall, the data paints a picture of a niche, specialized, and increasingly import-dependent sector within the EU's wider trade landscape.