Market evolution: Soybean meal (CN 2304) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of soybean meal (customs code 2304) for the European Union over the 2015–2025 period. Soybean meal is a critical protein source for the EU's animal feed industry. The data reveals a market characterised by a significant increase in the EU's dependence on imports, a major re-orientation of supplier sources, and a notable decline in domestic production, which collectively raise questions about long-term supply security and price stability.

1. The EU's Deepening Import Dependency and Structural Trade Deficit

The EU has long been a net importer of soybean meal, but the period under review shows a pronounced intensification of this reliance. The bloc's net import reliance surged from 66.0% in 2015 to 84.5% in 2025, indicating that its domestic consumption is increasingly met by foreign suppliers.

Key dynamics:

• Volume Growth vs. Value Stagnation: While import volumes rose by 14.1%, the total value remained essentially flat (€6.92bn to €6.93bn). This is explained by a significant 12.3% drop in the average import price, from €378/t to €332/t.
• Collapsing Export Base: The EU's capacity to re-export soybean meal has nearly halved in volume, falling from 930,000 tonnes to 478,000 tonnes. The most dramatic decline was to the United Kingdom, the former top destination, which saw a 76.2% drop in export value.
• Geographic Shift in Exports: The report shows that while exports to the UK collapsed, they grew to other destinations like Switzerland (+153.2%), Greece (+138.0%), and Ireland (+422.4%). However, these increases were insufficient to offset the overall decline.

2. Supplier Re-configuration: South American Dominance and the Rise of New Entrants

The composition of the EU's import suppliers underwent a radical transformation, moving towards greater concentration on South America while featuring the volatile emergence of new sources.

Main Supplier Evolution (2015 vs. 2025):

Key dynamics:

• Brazilian Consolidation: Brazil solidified its position as the EU's primary supplier, increasing its share of imports from €2.94bn to €3.50bn, partly compensating for losses elsewhere.
• The Fall of Argentina and Paraguay: Argentina, the second-largest supplier in 2015, saw its exports to the EU decline by 19.3%. Paraguay's exports collapsed by 77.4%. This may reflect increased domestic processing in these countries and competitive pressures.
• The Ukrainian Surge: The most dramatic change was the explosive growth of Ukrainian exports, from just €6 million in 2015 to €408 million by 2025. Ukraine became a major supplier, exploiting its agricultural potential and logistical proximity.
• Reduced Concentration Risk (Imports): The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value remained relatively stable, moving from 3,460 to 3,650. This indicates a persistently concentrated market structure, though not a tightening one. The volatility analysis confirms that some partners, like Ukraine, present very high instability (coefficient of variation of 1.18).
• High Volatility in Export Partners: The volatility of EU export flows is pronounced for many destinations, with coefficients of variation often exceeding 0.5, indicating a transactional and less stable market.

3. Contracting Domestic Production and the Specialisation Divide

Parallel to the growing import reliance, EU domestic production of soybean meal declined significantly, both in volume and value. This structural shift underscores a retreat from self-sufficiency.

Key dynamics:

• Significant Production Contraction: EU production fell by nearly a third in volume, from 8.51 billion kg to 5.74 billion kg. This decline suggests reduced crushing activity within the bloc, as the industry may be shifting towards importing meal rather than soybeans for domestic processing.
• Uneven Specialisation within the EU: Production is highly concentrated. The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows a stark divide:
  • Highly Specialised: The Netherlands (RCA: 2.62), Slovenia (RCA: 9.51), and Latvia (RCA: 2.43) have a strong comparative advantage in soybean meal production within the EU context.
  • Not Specialised: Major economies like France (RCA: 0.04), Ireland (RCA: 0.003), and Bulgaria (RCA: 0.0002) show virtually no specialisation, indicating their production is negligible relative to their overall economic profile. This suggests they are primarily consumers on the internal market.
• Declining Export Specialisation: The HHI for EU exports fell sharply from 4,477 to 2,573, confirming that the export base has become less concentrated (i.e., more diversified across different destinations) as the dominant flows to the UK diminished.

Conclusion

The EU soybean meal market from 2015 to 2025 has been defined by a strategic pivot towards greater import dependency. This trend is coupled with a geographical reorientation of suppliers, where Brazil remains the cornerstone while Ukraine has emerged as a major, albeit volatile, new partner. Domestically, production has contracted substantially, and remains concentrated in a few specialised member states.

These combined dynamics have increased the EU's vulnerability to external supply and price shocks. The rising trade intensity (from 69% to 88%) underscores the sector's exposure to global markets. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, these trends highlight the importance of monitoring supplier concentration, supporting strategic diversification of import sources, and evaluating the long-term sustainability and resilience of the EU's animal feed supply chain.