Market evolution: Starch and sugar waste residues (CN 2303) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union in products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 2303 over the period 2015 to 2025. This heading covers residues from starch manufacture, sugar production waste (like beet-pulp and bagasse), and brewing or distilling dregs. These products are primarily used in animal feed, bioenergy, and other industrial applications. The period under review encompasses significant market events, including global trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical conflicts, all of which have left discernible marks on trade flows. The data indicates a fundamental shift in the EU's trade profile for these goods, moving from a near-balanced position to a significant net importer.

A Structural Shift: The EU's Evolving Trade Balance

The most striking development over the decade is the deterioration of the EU's trade balance for CN 2303, driven by diverging trends in export and import values.

Exports Stagnate While Imports Surge

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports of these residues fell by 12.2%, from €243 million to €213 million. Over the same period, the value of imports grew dramatically by 51.3%, rising from €250 million to €378 million. This reversal transformed a small trade deficit of €-6.7 million in 2015 into a substantial deficit of €-164 million by 2025, a change of over -2,363% General Overview. This structural shift reflects growing internal demand or changing production economics that are increasingly met by foreign supply.

Diverging Price and Volume Trends

The divergence is also evident in volume and pricing. Export volumes contracted by 18.2% while import volumes increased by 10.5%. Crucially, unit prices for both flows rose, but import prices surged more sharply (+36.9%) compared to export prices (+7.4%). This suggests the EU faced stronger inflationary pressure on the supply side for these commodities.

Geopolitical and Price Volatility Reshape Trade Partners

The composition of the EU's trade partners underwent dramatic changes, influenced by geopolitical events and market shocks, leading to increased supply chain volatility.

A Seismic Shift in Import Origins

The most pronounced change was the near-total collapse of imports from Russia, which plummeted by 99.3% from €76 million in 2015 to €0.5 million in 2025. This void was primarily filled by surging imports from Egypt (+306.3%), Ukraine (+275.1%), and a consistent increase from the United States (+66.3%) General Overview. This realignment is likely linked to sanctions and the broader geopolitical realignment following 2022.

Detecting Price Shocks in 2022

The data identifies specific price shock events, notably in 2022. Import prices from Serbia and Egypt saw abnormal shifts of +46.6% and +78.3%, respectively, in that single year Volatility & Shocks. These shocks, occurring during a period of high global commodity prices and supply chain disruptions, contributed to the overall rise in import costs and likely reflect broader inflationary pressures in agricultural and biofuel sectors.

Export Market Reconfiguration

The EU's export destinations also shifted. Exports to Türkiye, a major market, collapsed by -67.9%. In contrast, exports to Switzerland grew strongly by 89.0%, and Israel emerged from a negligible base to become a significant destination General Overview. This reconfiguration suggests changing competitive dynamics and demand patterns in third-country markets.

Internal EU Dynamics: Specialization and Production

While the EU as a bloc became more import-reliant, the picture varies significantly among its member states, reflecting differing national industrial structures.

Growing Import Reliance and Trade Openness

The EU's net import reliance for CN 2303 increased from 4.5% in 2015 to 7.8% in 2025. Concurrently, trade intensity (the sum of exports and imports relative to production) rose from 15.6% to 22.5%, and export propensity increased from 6.3% to 9.0% Autonomy & Vulnerability. This indicates that the EU's domestic market for these residues became more integrated with and dependent on global trade flows.

Divergent Member State Specialisation

Specialisation within the EU is highly uneven. In 2025, Bulgaria and Austria showed strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in exports, indicating they are major producers and exporters relative to their overall trade Market Structure. Conversely, large economies like Ireland and Sweden are significant net importers, with very low RCA. This points to a regionalised production pattern within the EU, where some member states act as net exporters to others.

Production Growth Masks Price Effects

EU domestic production quantity grew modestly by 3.8% between 2015 and 2025. However, production value surged by 119.1%, far outpacing volume growth Market Structure. This underscores the dominant role of rising prices—likely tied to energy, agricultural input costs, and strong demand from the feed and bioenergy sectors—in shaping the market's nominal value.

Conclusion

The period 2015-2025 witnessed a transformative shift in the EU's trade for starch and sugar waste residues (CN 2303). The bloc transitioned from a balanced trader to a net importer, a change driven by stagnating exports and booming imports, whose value rose by over 50%. This evolution was heavily influenced by geopolitics, as seen in the collapse of imports from Russia and their replacement by supplies from Egypt, Ukraine, and the US, alongside significant price shocks in 2022. Internally, production grew slowly, but its value doubled due to strong price inflation, while member states displayed deep specialisation divides. The overall trend points to an EU market that has become more globally integrated and reliant on external supplies, while simultaneously grappling with heightened price volatility and supply chain realignments.