Market evolution: Groundnut oilcake (CN 2305) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of groundnut oilcake (CN 2305) by the European Union with non-EU countries between 2015 and 2025. The data reveals a profound transformation in the EU's trade position for this product. Over the decade, the bloc has shifted from being a net importer to a significant net exporter, driven by a massive surge in domestic production and a fundamental restructuring of its international trade relationships. This evolution is characterised by collapsing import volumes, soaring export volumes, and major shifts in key partner countries, alongside changes in price dynamics and market concentration.

The Collapse of Imports and the Pivot to Export Growth

The most striking feature of the 2015-2025 period is the radical reversal in the EU's trade flow for groundnut oilcake. The bloc has moved from a deficit to a surplus position, with trade values growing exponentially while volumes exhibit contrasting trajectories.

The Dramatic Shift in Trade Values and Volumes

EU imports of groundnut oilcake collapsed in volume, falling from 4,095 tonnes in 2015 to just 322 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 92.1%. Despite this plunge in quantity, the value of imports fell by only 14.8% (from €1.455 million to €1.239 million), indicating a massive increase in import prices. Conversely, EU exports exploded, with volumes rising from 0.16 tonnes to 137.8 tonnes (an increase of over 88,000%) and values surging from €723 to €81,216.

(Source: General Overview - Trade)

Diverging Price Trends Between Imports and Export

A key interpretative point is the divergence in unit values. Import prices soared from €355 per tonne in 2015 to €3,847 per tonne in 2025, a 982.8% increase. This suggests either a shift to sourcing higher-quality oilcake or severe supply constraints on traditional suppliers, making the remaining imports extremely expensive. In stark contrast, export prices fell from a high of €4,662/t in 2015 to €589/t in 2025 (an 87.4% decline), indicating that the EU is competing on volume and price in export markets, likely leveraging its increased domestic production.

A Reconfigured and Volatile Partner Landscape

The EU's trade partnerships for groundnut oilcake have undergone a complete reorganisation, with long-standing relationships fading and new, sometimes volatile, ones emerging.

The Rise of New Dominant Suppliers

The import side saw a seismic shift in partners. In 2015, Senegal was the dominant supplier, accounting for €1.446 million (over 99% of import value). By 2025, its trade had ceased entirely. The new primary suppliers became Argentina (€923,958) and the United States (€189,850), which together accounted for nearly all EU imports by value. This indicates a complete geographic realignment of supply chains, moving from West Africa to the Americas.

(Source: Top Partners by Value - Imports)

Export Destinations: From Niche to Regional Markets

Export partnerships also changed dramatically. Early exports in 2015 were directed to a mix of markets, including Iran (€77,704) and the United Kingdom (€32,678). By 2025, exports were heavily focused on Switzerland (€38,365) and, notably, European neighbours like Belgium (€29,363) and Spain (€39,092). This suggests the EU has found a regional outlet for its surplus production within or close to its single market. The volatility coefficients (CV) for key partners like the US (CV=2.71) and Norway (CV=1.63) confirm these relationships have been unstable.

Increased Market Concentration and Specialisation

Despite new partners, market concentration (measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, HHI) has generally decreased. For imports, the HHI fell from 9,884 to 6,677 (a 32.5% drop), indicating a less concentrated supplier base, though still moderately concentrated. The specialisation data shows that within the EU, production has become geographically specialised. In 2025, Spain (RCA of 7.62), Bulgaria (6.12), and Belgium (4.24) displayed strong revealed comparative advantages in this product, while traditional agri-food giants like Germany and France were highly unspecialised.

Surge in Domestic Production and Improved Autonomy

The fundamental driver behind the trade shift has been a tremendous expansion of the EU's own groundnut oilcake production, significantly altering the bloc's strategic position.

Unprecedented Growth in EU Production

EU production of groundnut oilcake increased by over 316% in volume, from 2.43 billion kg in 2015 to 10.13 billion kg in 2025. Production value grew by 190% from €142.7 million to €413.4 million. This four-fold increase in output is the primary reason the EU could reduce its imports so drastically while simultaneously building a large export surplus.

(Source: Production Volumes)

Reduced Vulnerability and Trade Dependency

This production boom has directly improved the EU's autonomy. The net import reliance metric, which measures the share of domestic demand met by imports, fell from 56.7% in 2015 to 42.7% in 2025. Concurrently, the trade intensity (the importance of trade relative to domestic production) also declined from 59.3% to 46.4%. These metrics, detailed in the vulnerability analysis, confirm that the EU is now more self-sufficient and less exposed to external supply shocks for this product than it was a decade ago.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for groundnut oilcake (CN 2305) underwent a structural transformation. The bloc evolved from a significant net importer reliant on West African suppliers into a major net exporter with a strengthened domestic production base. This was not a smooth transition but one marked by volatility, including the complete collapse of imports from Senegal and price shocks in trade with the United States and Norway. The key outcome is a marked increase in EU self-sufficiency, driven by a surge in production, which has reduced import dependency and allowed the EU to redirect its output towards regional and Swiss markets. The market is now characterised by a more balanced but specialised EU production landscape and a reconfigured, albeit still volatile, set of international trade partnerships.