Market evolution: Animal feed preparations (CN 230990) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU customs code 230990 — Preparations of a kind used in animal feeding (excl. dog or cat food put up for retail sale) — over the period 2015 to 2025. The product category covers a broad range of industrial and premixed feed formulations used in livestock and aquaculture sectors. The general overview data reveal that the EU's position as a net exporter of animal feed preparations has strengthened considerably over the period: the trade surplus widened from €1.64 billion in 2015 to €3.00 billion in 2025, an increase of 83.2%. Exports grew by 74.5% in value (from €2.32 billion to €4.05 billion), while imports rose by 53.6% (from €681 million to €1.05 billion). Throughout this decade, the EU maintained a consistent and growing export surplus, underpinned by a domestic production sector that expanded dramatically — production value rose by 365.7% over the period.

1. A decade of strong EU export growth, driven by prices more than volumes

1.1 Export value growth outpaces quantity increases

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of animal feed preparations grew by 24.2% in volume (from 2.17 million tonnes to 2.69 million tonnes) but by 74.5% in value. This divergence reflects a sustained rise in unit export prices, which climbed from €1,068 per tonne in 2015 to €1,501 per tonne in 2025 — a 40.5% increase. The sharpest price acceleration occurred between 2020 and 2022, coinciding with global commodity price surges and supply-chain disruptions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

1.2 Import growth is similarly price-led

Imports followed a parallel pattern: volumes increased by 22.6% (from 987,000 tonnes to 1.21 million tonnes), while values rose by 53.6%. Import unit prices climbed from €691 to €865 per tonne (+25.3%). Notably, import quantities peaked at nearly 1.70 million tonnes in an intermediate year before receding, suggesting a temporary surge — possibly stockpiling or sourcing shifts — that subsequently normalised.

1.3 The EU trade surplus expanded substantially

The fact that export prices rose faster than import prices (40.5% vs. 25.3%) helped amplify the surplus growth, indicating that the EU exported higher-value-added formulations while importing more commoditised raw-material-based feed ingredients.

2. Shifting geography: the UK cements its role while Asian markets gain importance

2.1 The United Kingdom became the EU's dominant trade partner on both sides

Brexit and the UK's departure from the EU single market at the start of 2021 did not diminish trade in this product; on the contrary, the United Kingdom emerged as the EU's single largest export destination (growing from €216 million to €480 million, +121.9%) and its largest source of imports (rising from €309 million to €378 million, +22.4%). The UK's deep integration into EU livestock supply chains — with cross-border movements of feed premixes and compound feeds — appears to have withstood the change in customs status, though new trade frictions may have been absorbed through price adjustments rather than volume reductions.

2.2 China surged as both an import source and an export destination

China's role evolved dramatically. On the import side, Chinese-sourced feed preparations grew from €58 million to €227 million (+294.4%), making China the third-largest import partner by 2025. On the export side, EU shipments to China rose from €70 million to €131 million (+88.4%). This two-way expansion reflects China's massive livestock sector and its increasing openness to specialised feed ingredients and premixes from Europe.

2.3 Russia's role diverged sharply between imports and exports

The Russian Federation presents a striking split. EU exports to Russia fell by 48.1% (from €267 million to €139 million), reflecting the progressive impact of sanctions and geopolitical tensions following 2022. Conversely, EU imports of Russian feed preparations — though volatile — rose overall by 499.1%, growing from €3.0 million to €17.7 million. Russia's coefficient of variation for import flows was the highest among all partners at 1.41, indicating extreme year-to-year instability.

2.4 South-East Asian and North American markets expanded for EU exports

The United States and Norway nearly doubled their purchases of EU feed preparations, while growth in the Philippines and Viet Nam, though more moderate, confirmed the sustained demand from fast-growing Asian aquaculture and poultry sectors.

3. Market concentration, product structure, and supply-chain resilience

3.1 Import sources diversified while exports remained well-spread

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value fell from 2,907 to 2,053 (−29.4%), moving from a moderately concentrated market toward a less concentrated one. This diversification was driven by the rise of China and other emerging suppliers at the expense of the historically dominant UK share. By volume, concentration fell even more sharply (−41.3%). The export HHI remained very low throughout — declining marginally from 392 to 358 — confirming that EU exports were already well-diversified across a wide array of partner countries.

3.2 Domestic production expanded massively, reinforcing export capacity

EU production of animal feed preparations grew from 48.4 billion kg in 2015 to 147.1 billion kg in 2025 (+204.1%), while production value rose from €12.8 billion to €59.5 billion (+365.7%). This enormous expansion — value growing nearly 1.5 times faster than volume — reflects both the shift toward higher-value specialised formulations and the inflation in raw material costs experienced globally since 2020. The EU's strong production base underpins its consistent export surplus and its ability to serve both domestic livestock demand and international markets.

3.3 Specialisation patterns reveal the EU's core exporting nations

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 show clear specialisation leaders:

The Netherlands, France, Belgium, and Germany collectively accounted for the lion's share of EU exports in absolute terms, while Denmark and Latvia showed the highest relative specialisation. At the other end, Romania (RSCA −0.89) and Sweden (RSCA −0.78) were the least specialised, importing far more of this product category relative to their total trade.

3.4 Supply shocks concentrated in 2022, linked to geopolitical disruption

The volatility analysis identifies several acute price shocks in the export flows:

The 2022 shocks in the Philippines and Ukraine are consistent with the broader commodity price spike and supply disruption caused by the Russia–Ukraine war, which drove up feed ingredient costs globally. The Ukraine trade flows were themselves highly volatile (export CV 0.17, import CV 0.90), reflecting the severe disruption to the country's agricultural sector from the conflict. On the import side, Russia (CV 1.41), Malaysia (0.93), and Ukraine (0.90) exhibited the highest instability, signalling that the EU's animal feed supply chain remains exposed to geopolitical risk in specific sourcing corridors.

3.5 Product composition: dominance of non-starch, non-milk formulations in exports

The product segment breakdown reveals distinct structural differences between imports and exports:

• Exports were dominated by subheading 23099096 (preparations containing no starch, glucose, or milk products), which represented over half of total export value by 2025 (€2.29 billion out of €4.05 billion). This category grew steadily throughout the period.
• Imports were more fragmented. The top import categories included 23099031 (starch/glucose or milk-containing preparations), 23099096 (same as the leading export code), and 23099020 (maize starch residues). The latter saw its import volume collapse from 393,000 tonnes in 2015 to just 149,000 tonnes in 2025, even as its unit price surged from €179 to €239 per tonne — a possible consequence of declining global maize processing residue availability or EU sourcing shifts.
• Subheading 23099091 (beef-pulp with molasses) displayed extreme volatility in imports: volumes were negligible in most years but surged dramatically in 2022–2023 (over 200,000–416,000 tonnes), before retreating to 143,000 tonnes in 2025, with prices collapsing from €253/t in 2022 to €134/t in 2025.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of animal feed preparations (CN 230990), with the trade surplus nearly doubling to €3.0 billion. Growth was primarily value-driven, as unit prices rose substantially faster than traded volumes, reflecting both the global commodity price cycle of 2020–2022 and a structural shift toward higher-value formulations. Geographically, the United Kingdom remained the EU's pre-eminent trade partner on both the export and import sides, while China's rise — particularly as an import source — and Russia's declining export role reshaped the market's centre of gravity. The EU's domestic production base expanded dramatically, providing a strong foundation for continued export growth. However, volatility in specific partner relationships — especially Russia, Ukraine, and Malaysia — and acute supply shocks in 2022 highlight ongoing vulnerabilities in the global animal feed supply chain. Going forward, the sector's trajectory will be shaped by global protein demand growth, feed ingredient price dynamics, and the EU's evolving regulatory environment around sustainability and feed additive approvals.