Market evolution: Animal feed preparations (CN 23099031) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of the European Union (EU) in animal feed preparations classified under Combined Nomenclature code 23099031. This product category, as defined, encompasses preparations containing starch, glucose, glucose syrup, maltodextrin or milk products, and is a key input for the EU's livestock sector. The analysis covers the full calendar years from 2015 to 2025, examining EU trade with non-EU countries. The period is marked by significant growth in both exports and imports, shifts in key partnerships, and major production expansion within the EU. The data points to a fundamental strengthening of the EU's position as a net exporter in this market.

The EU's shift to a net-export powerhouse in animal feed preparations

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in product 23099031 underwent a dramatic transformation, moving from a position of near balance to one of substantial and growing export surplus. This shift was driven by a pronounced acceleration in export growth compared to import growth.

Exports grew substantially faster than imports, widening the trade surplus

The value of EU exports surged by 135.6%, rising from €280 million in 2015 to €660 million in 2025. In contrast, while imports also grew, they did so at a slower rate of 64.1%, increasing from €225 million to €369 million. This differential growth transformed the trade balance. The EU's trade balance was a surplus of €55 million in 2015 but dipped to a deficit of -€57 million before rebounding powerfully. By 2025, it reached a record surplus of €291 million, a 426.6% increase from the 2015 level.

The export surge was powered by volume, with prices providing a secondary boost

The expansion in exports was primarily a volume story, supplemented by higher prices. Export volume (in tonnes) grew by 80.6%, from 239,218 t to 431,910 t. The average export price also increased by 30.5%, from €1,171/t to €1,528/t. This combination of volume growth and price appreciation signifies a robust increase in both the quantity shipped and the unit value of those exports.

Import growth was similarly volume-driven, but with more price stability

EU import volumes grew by 57.5% (from 213,390 t to 336,106 t), a strong increase but trailing the export volume growth. Import prices were far more stable, rising only 4.2% over the decade (from €1,054/t to €1,098/t). This suggests that the EU's sourcing strategy successfully managed input cost inflation, or that the composition of imports shifted towards lower-priced origins.

A major geographic reorientation of EU trade flows

The period witnessed a significant reorientation of the EU's trading partners for this product, characterized by the emergence of new key suppliers and a dramatic diversification of export destinations.

The import landscape: The rise of China and the relative decline of traditional partners

China became the EU's most important source of imports by value, with a staggering 563.8% increase from €20 million in 2015 to €136 million in 2025. This growth, however, was volatile, as evidenced by the high coefficient of variation (0.47) for the China trade flow (volatility data). In contrast, the United States saw its share decline by 16.8% over the period, despite remaining a major partner. Indonesia, which was a significant supplier in 2015 (€18.5 million), saw its exports to the EU collapse by 94.7% to under €1 million in 2025. Ukraine experienced high volatility (coefficient of variation: 0.99), with its exports fluctuating wildly, peaking at €39 million before settling at €1.2 million in 2025.

The export landscape: Explosive growth in non-traditional destinations

While the United Kingdom (+163.2%) and the Russian Federation remained top destinations, the most striking growth occurred in other markets. Exports to Uganda surged from €0.6 million to €33.9 million (+5,178%). Similarly, exports to Norway grew an astonishing 1,335%, from €4.1 million to €58.4 million, becoming the single largest EU export market by value in 2025. The United States also showed strong growth of 182.4%. This pattern indicates a successful penetration of high-value markets (Norway) and the capture of significant new demand in developing regions (Uganda). The export concentration remained very low (HHI: 375 in 2025), confirming this successful diversification (concentration data).

Internal EU repositioning: France and Denmark emerge as export drivers

Within the EU, the drivers of export growth shifted. The Netherlands and Germany remained the top two exporters, growing by 61.4% and 98.6% respectively. However, France's exports exploded by 597.5%, making it the third-largest exporter in 2025. Denmark and Austria also saw massive growth (+94.7% and +337.2%), with Denmark exhibiting a high revealed comparative advantage (RCA: 8.59) indicating significant specialization in this product (specialisation data). On the import side, Germany, Denmark, and Poland saw the most significant increases in intake from outside the EU.

Production expansion, industry specialization, and price shocks

The strong export performance was underpinned by a massive expansion in EU production capacity, which saw considerable specialization in certain Member States. The period was also punctuated by notable price shocks affecting specific trade corridors.

EU production volumes and values more than tripled

The growth in trade was supported by a dramatic expansion of the domestic EU industry. Production quantity increased by 204.1%, from 48.4 billion kg in 2015 to a peak of 179.6 billion kg before settling at 147.1 billion kg in 2025. Even more strikingly, production value grew by 365.7%, indicating a significant move up the value chain or strong price inflation for output. This growth underscores the sector's expansion to meet both internal demand and the surging export market (production data).

Market concentration reveals an asymmetric EU position

The structure of trade highlights the EU's strategic position. Import concentration (HHI) for value was 2058 in 2025, indicating a moderately concentrated import market, meaning the EU sources from a limited number of key partners like China and the UK. In contrast, the export concentration (HHI) was very low at 375, demonstrating that the EU sells to a highly diversified set of global customers. This asymmetry reduces the EU's vulnerability to supply disruptions in imports while insulating its export revenue from over-dependence on any single buyer.

Significant price shocks occurred in specific trade relationships

The analysis detected several notable price shocks (shock events). The largest was a 158.4% surge in the unit price of EU imports from the United States in 2019. On the export side, EU shipments to Armenia and Sudan experienced sharp price increases of 28.7% and 52.4% respectively in 2022. These events may reflect localized supply-demand imbalances, the impact of global logistics disruptions, or geopolitical factors affecting specific trade routes.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for animal feed preparations (CN 23099031) evolved decisively. The Union transitioned from a balanced trader to a major net exporter, with its export surplus reaching €291 million by 2025. This was fueled by a 135.6% increase in export value, driven by both volume expansion (+80.6%) and price appreciation (+30.5%). Geographically, trade flows reoriented significantly: imports became dominated by China, while exports achieved spectacular growth in markets like Norway and Uganda. Internally, Member States such as France and Denmark became central to the export drive. Underpinning this was a 204% growth in EU production volumes. The market structure, with its highly diversified export base and more concentrated import sources, presents a relatively robust position for the EU, albeit one exposed to price volatility in key supply relationships like that with the United States. This decade marks a period of consolidation and expansion of the EU's role as a global supplier in the animal feed sector.