Market evolution: Animal feed preparations (CN 23099096) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in animal feed preparations classified under customs code 23099096. The product covers feed preparations that do not contain starch, glucose, glucose syrup, maltodextrine, maltodextrine syrup, nor milk products — excluding retail pet food, fish solubles, specific starch residues, beet-pulp with molasses, and premixes. It corresponds to several PRODCOM codes, principally preparations for pigs, cattle, poultry, and other farm animals (see product details).

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter in this segment. Trade value, volumes, and production all grew substantially, while the structure of both imports and exports shifted markedly. The following sections analyse these dynamics in detail.

1. A Deepening Net Export Surplus Driven by Rising Prices and Volumes

The EU's trade surplus nearly doubled over the decade

The EU maintained a persistent and growing trade surplus in CN 23099096 throughout the period. The trade balance in value terms rose from €1,173 million in 2015 to €1,959 million in 2025 — an increase of 67.0%. This reflects the fact that exports consistently outpaced imports by a wide margin, as shown in the table below (trade overview).

Export value growth was propelled by a combination of volume and price increases

EU exports grew by 66.8% in value over the period, but this was the product of two distinct forces. Export volumes rose by 25.3% (from approximately 1.08 million tonnes to 1.35 million tonnes), while export unit values climbed by 33.1% (from €1,272/t to €1,694/t). Price growth therefore accounted for a larger share of the value increase than pure volume expansion. This likely reflects a shift toward higher-value formulations, as well as general input cost inflation — particularly in energy and protein meals — that was passed on to buyers.

Import volumes surged even faster, but at declining prices

While exports grew in both volume and price, the import side told a very different story. Import volumes nearly doubled (+85.8%), rising from 149,000 tonnes to 277,000 tonnes. However, import unit values fell by 10.9% (from €1,361/t to €1,212/t). This divergence suggests that the EU increasingly sourced lower-cost feed preparations from third countries — potentially reflecting competitive pressure from emerging suppliers and the growing role of bulk commodity-type feeds from Asia and Eastern Europe.

EU production expanded dramatically, underpinning export capacity

Available production data shows a striking expansion in EU manufacturing of these preparations. Production quantity (in kg) grew by 204.1% — from 48.4 billion kg in 2015 to 147.1 billion kg in 2025 — while production value rose by 365.7% (from €12.8 billion to €59.5 billion). This massive scaling of domestic capacity both supplied the growing export volumes and suggests that the EU feed industry invested heavily in expanding output over the decade, capitalising on global demand growth.

2. A Shifting Geography of Trade: Diversifying Imports and Reorienting Exports

The import market became significantly less concentrated

One of the most notable structural shifts was the sharp diversification of EU imports. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 3,681 in 2015 to 2,250 in 2025 — a decline of 38.9%. An HHI above 2,500 is typically considered "moderately concentrated"; by 2025 the EU had moved below that threshold, indicating a more competitive and less risky import structure. A similar pattern held for volume concentration, where the HHI dropped even more steeply (−45.2%).

The United Kingdom remained the dominant partner, but emerging suppliers surged

Across both imports and exports, the United Kingdom was the single largest partner throughout the period. However, its relative weight declined as new suppliers entered or expanded rapidly. The table below summarises the evolution of key import partners:

Indonesia stands out as the most dramatic case: its exports to the EU grew from virtually nothing (€1.4 million) to over €25 million — a 1,755% increase. Russia and Serbia also saw import values multiply several times over, though from much smaller bases. China doubled its shipments, consolidating its position as the second-largest import source.

EU export destinations also shifted, with Saudi Arabia and the US gaining ground

On the export side, the picture was one of moderate reorientation:

The United States emerged as the largest single export destination by 2025 (€227 million), overtaking Russia, which saw a steep 41.4% decline — possibly linked to sanctions and trade disruptions following 2022. Saudi Arabia more than doubled its purchases, becoming a major growth market for EU feed preparations.

France, the Netherlands, and Spain were the EU's leading exporting Member States

Within the EU, the largest exporting Member States were France (€441.6 million in 2025, +60.0%), the Netherlands (€343.7 million, +34.7%), and Belgium (€297.7 million, +35.5%). Southern and Eastern European exporters grew fastest: Spain's exports more than doubled (+111.4%) and Bulgaria's nearly quadrupled (+265.3%), suggesting these countries developed significant export-oriented feed industries over the decade. Italy also saw explosive growth (+217.5%).

Greece and Denmark led in export specialisation

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) shows that in 2025, Greece (RCA = 3.12), Latvia (2.81), Cyprus (2.61), Denmark (2.54), and Bulgaria (2.41) were the most specialised EU exporters in this product category. At the other end of the spectrum, Romania (RCA = 0.13), Slovakia (0.15), and Estonia (0.20) showed little specialisation — they were net importers relative to their overall trade profiles.

3. Price Shocks, Partner Volatility, and the Risks of Geographic Dependence

Import partners exhibited far greater price volatility than export partners

The coefficient of variation (CV) of trade values reveals a striking asymmetry between the import and export sides. For imports, several partners showed very high volatility:

By contrast, the most volatile export partners were considerably more stable:

The UK — the largest partner on both sides — displayed the lowest volatility in both imports (CV = 0.17) and exports (CV = 0.16), confirming its role as a stable, predictable trading relationship.

Significant price shocks were detected in three bilateral relationships

The shock detection analysis identified three notable events:

The UAE shock in 2017 saw EU export prices to that market jump by 210% — a dramatic spike that likely reflected a temporary supply disruption or a shift toward higher-value product mixes in that specific trade flow. The Russian import price shock of 2018 (+130.6%) may be linked to exchange rate movements or supply-side tightening from Russian producers. The Philippines shock in 2022 (+159.7%) coincided with a period of global commodity price inflation and supply chain disruptions following the pandemic and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Export concentration remained low, but import diversification still carries risks

The export HHI remained very low throughout (299 in 2025), indicating a well-diversified export base with no dangerous reliance on any single destination. Imports, while increasingly diversified (HHI falling from 3,681 to 2,250), still concentrated significant shares in a few partners — notably the UK (€140 million, the largest single source) and China (€59 million). Moreover, the fastest-growing import sources (Indonesia, Russia, Serbia) have historically displayed high volatility, which introduces supply-side risk as their market shares grow.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU significantly strengthened its position in global trade of animal feed preparations under CN 23099096. The trade surplus grew by 67%, underpinned by a massive expansion in domestic production (+204% in volume), rising export prices, and steady diversification of export markets. The United States and Saudi Arabia emerged as key growth destinations, while exports to Russia contracted sharply — likely a consequence of geopolitical developments.

On the import side, volumes nearly doubled but at declining unit values, suggesting the EU increasingly sourced cheaper feed preparations from emerging suppliers. Import diversification improved markedly, though the growing weight of volatile partners such as Indonesia and Russia warrants monitoring. Several isolated price shocks — particularly to UAE, Russia, and Philippines trade flows — highlight the potential for sudden disruptions in an otherwise broadly stable market.

Looking ahead, the EU's strong production base and diversified export profile position it well. However, continued attention to import supply-chain resilience — particularly given the volatility of fast-growing Asian and Eastern European sources — will be important for maintaining stability in the EU's animal nutrition sector.